Why The Great Wealth Transfer is a LIE
Everyone keeps talking about the “Great Wealth Transfer” like it’s some mythical pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. But here’s the reality: the rich aren’t exactly lining up to hand you their keys to the kingdom. Between tax loopholes, estate strategies, and the fact that most heirs are just as debt-happy as everyone else, the so-called wealth transfer looks more like a magician’s sleight of hand than a generational payday. Spoiler: if you’re waiting around for this miracle to hit your bank account, you’re going to be waiting a very long time.
➡️ In this episode, Chris, Saied and Rajeil tear into the headlines, decode the market noise, and break down why the “great wealth transfer” narrative is just another shiny distraction. From volatility bets on Wall Street to the political circus surrounding a potential government shutdown, we cut through the hype with a mix of cold, hard facts and the occasional sarcasm that CNBC can’t deliver.
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📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv
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🔗 Resources:
US households have massive exposure to equities (The Kobeissi Letter via X)
Renting is no longer just a stepping stone for young 20-somethings (Amy Nixon via X)
The bottom 50% of U.S. households have historically had little exposure to stocks (Stock Market News via X)
Rise of the ‘Accidental Landlords’ Is Bad News for Investors Who Bet Big on Rentals (The Wall Street Journal)
By the end of Q4 2025, there will be more 6% mortgages than sub-3% mortgages (Nick Gerli via X)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.
Transcript
Don't do that, bro.
Speaker A:Hey, so what does 6, 7 mean?
Speaker A:Very good question.
Speaker A:Yeah, I don't think I'm young enough to answer this.
Speaker A:So it was.
Speaker A:It was something in a song that an NBA player, like, repeated that ultimately went viral, and now all the kids say, six, seven.
Speaker A:Got it.
Speaker B:I've never heard of this.
Speaker A:And what.
Speaker A:Yeah, this is, like, the most viral thing, kids.
Speaker A:It's literally taking over classrooms.
Speaker A:Teachers are walking into the classroom saying, all right, everyone, get your six sevens out of the way right now.
Speaker B:I don't understand what this.
Speaker A:I don't understand saying it.
Speaker A:Yeah, they're just.
Speaker A:Everything is six.
Speaker A:So I'll walk into practice and be like, all right, guys, we're gonna run for about six, seven minutes just to, like, get the kids to laugh and get it out.
Speaker A:And they're like, six, seven.
Speaker A:I'm like, I don't.
Speaker A:I don't understand.
Speaker B:I don't understand what the.
Speaker A:I don't understand either.
Speaker A:There's nothing to understand, Honestly.
Speaker A:There's literally nothing to understand.
Speaker A:It was.
Speaker A:It was in a song.
Speaker A:6, 6, 7 was in a song.
Speaker A:And then Lamella Ball repeated it.
Speaker B:Lamelo Ball was the one who repeated it.
Speaker B:I automatically don't like it, dude.
Speaker A:Lamelo Ball is.
Speaker A:I don't understand the fascination these kids have with him.
Speaker B:He.
Speaker B:Because he's.
Speaker B:He's their generation.
Speaker A:He's.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And I'm like, I. I guess I don't get it.
Speaker A:I don't get it.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:I, I.
Speaker B:There's a lot of language these days that I just.
Speaker A:6, 7, and then there's some of 41 now.
Speaker A:We're so old, bro.
Speaker B:You know, the worst part about it is, like, I look up iconic characters from our childhood from movies and cinema sitcoms, and I always Google and search how old they were that we were supposed to be at the time of the shooting of the film.
Speaker A:Like, oh, yeah, I have done this before.
Speaker B:Al Bundy or, you know something.
Speaker A:Carl Winslow.
Speaker B:Carl Winslow.
Speaker B:They were younger than me, man.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Tim Allen.
Speaker B:Tim Allen.
Speaker B:How old is Tim Allen?
Speaker A:I think it was, like, early 40s from.
Speaker A:From the home improvement days.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And he felt old.
Speaker B:And I look at Tim Allen today at my age and go, no, he's older than me.
Speaker A:No, I know.
Speaker A:You look more like Mr. Feeny.
Speaker A:Oh.
Speaker A:Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.
Speaker A:This is the higher standard.
Speaker A:Sitting in front of me is my partner in crime with the infamous Camp Pop, Christopher Nahibi, better known as Mr.
Speaker B:Female.
Speaker B:Yeah, they can scoot out of the way.
Speaker B:Get all your six sevens out of the way.
Speaker B:I walked right into that.
Speaker B:He did.
Speaker B:Yeah, you did.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And the sad part is that I go, is that boy meets world?
Speaker B:Because that's after my prime.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:My partner in time, the name calling man that you know as Sayed Omar, everybody.
Speaker A:Thank you, my man.
Speaker A:And sitting behind the ones and twos in the production suite, if you will, the fighting Fijian, Rajeel.
Speaker A:What's up, my guy?
Speaker A:What's up, everyone?
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker B:Caffeine's kicking in.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:I so just found out that each can of diet Coke, I've been on this kick of not having caffeine.
Speaker A:Yeah, I know.
Speaker A:40, 40 milligrams of caffeine.
Speaker A:46 milligrams of caffeine.
Speaker A:Went.
Speaker A:While regular Coke only contains 34 milligrams 46.
Speaker A:I'm like, this is a green tea.
Speaker A:That's what this is.
Speaker A:As you know me, I'd be having green tea at night.
Speaker B:Do you really remember I always pegged you as a black tea?
Speaker A:You never pegged me at all with anything, first of all.
Speaker A:Unfortunately.
Speaker A:No, you haven't.
Speaker B:Yes, I have.
Speaker A:Wish you have.
Speaker B:I pegged you every time you open your mouth.
Speaker A:Stop it.
Speaker B:I was begging you for something.
Speaker A:Is that the peewee word for the day?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:No, no, no.
Speaker B:If we're using peg that much, we did something.
Speaker A:Well, in tonight's episode, we are going to discuss and do a deep dive into a lot of data circled around why the great wealth transfer is a lie.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Someone said we're going to peg it.
Speaker A:Peg it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Now, this conversation about the great wealth transfer has been going on for the greater portion of the last couple years, but it's really starting to pick up steam because a lot of people are banking on this to solve a lot of problems.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I'm gonna.
Speaker B:Full disclosure right at the top of the show, I went down this path not knowing that this would be the conclusion.
Speaker B:So I was.
Speaker B:What do you mean?
Speaker B:I was a bit surprised by some of the data.
Speaker B:I. I, like everybody else has heard about this great wealth transfer.
Speaker B:Like this older generation, they built this wealth.
Speaker B:It's supposed to pass it down to the next generation.
Speaker B:And there's supposed to be kind of a boom, if you will, of their spending and their comeuppance, if you will.
Speaker A:No pun intended, to the baby boomers that we'll be citing later on in the show.
Speaker B:Yeah, none at all.
Speaker B:And the.
Speaker B:The more I went down this path, and it all started with a chart that we're going to show after we get through some, I guess, top of the show commentary.
Speaker B:And it was like, wait a minute.
Speaker B:That looks like what you would think at face value.
Speaker B:But when you start getting into some of the nuances, I saw a second chart that we're going to talk about in that order.
Speaker B:And I'm like, wait a minute.
Speaker B:This is not playing out how people think it's going to.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I kind of went down a rabbit hole.
Speaker B:A rabbit hole I am willing to share with you.
Speaker B:So now we're not.
Speaker B:We're not only going to peg things tonight, we're going down.
Speaker A:We're pegging the holes.
Speaker A:Yeah, there you go.
Speaker B:Just to ensure that we're all properly informed.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:That's it.
Speaker A:That's the only reason why we would peg any holes.
Speaker B:Of course.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker A:Put some wood glue in there, too.
Speaker A:Yeah, some wood glue.
Speaker B:What kind of pegging are you doing?
Speaker A:You gotta follow the instructions.
Speaker A:This guy, this guy, I saw you building a dining set the other day.
Speaker B:Yeah, he was.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's right.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Look at me paying attention.
Speaker B:All right, so get some of the ugly, gory stuff out of the way.
Speaker B:Top.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:The government shutdown is going to happen.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:And by the time you listen to this, I am going to guess that we're not going to have resolution in the next week.
Speaker B:We are recording this September 30th.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:It is a Tuesday for us.
Speaker B:This is the night that the shutdown is supposed to happen at 7:45pm so.
Speaker A:We are about, what, an hour away.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:And it's got an over 90% probability right now.
Speaker B:But the prediction market show there's currently an 87% chance.
Speaker B:That's earlier today with nine hours from now.
Speaker B:But as of right now, Today, you're over 90% chance right now.
Speaker B:And I've some of the latest commentary.
Speaker B:This chart shows the government shut down tomorrow.
Speaker B:This is from yesterday and it's only gotten higher, closer to 100% since that time.
Speaker B:And here we are.
Speaker B:Actually, one minute ago, it should have shut down.
Speaker B:So I think this is a foregone conclusion right now.
Speaker B:But what's more important is the history around shutdowns that have happened historically.
Speaker B:The last shutdown really happened in response to Trump's first term and that lasted a little over 30 days.
Speaker A:Wow.
Speaker B:So he has had the longest shutdown.
Speaker B:He's done this before in his tenure as a president.
Speaker A:So very comfortable with the idea of the government shutting down.
Speaker B:So there are meaningful reasons here.
Speaker B:But let's go down a little bit of More of a market.
Speaker B:I mean, this is a financial literacy podcast.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:Let's go down a little bit of the market's perspective here.
Speaker B:Something I noticed early on, I saw this from a Market Watch article.
Speaker B:Hedge fund short positions in the VIX are at a three year high, but it's not necessarily a bet against volatility.
Speaker B:For those of you who do not recall, the VIX is the fear gauge, the volatility index.
Speaker B:And the higher that number gets, the more uncertainty and fear there is in the markets.
Speaker B:People are shorting it, they're saying, hey, I don't think it's going to go up.
Speaker A:And this isn't one of those surveys where, you know, you're getting people responding to a survey and they're telling you, oh, we're worried about.
Speaker A:No, this is showing you people are putting their money where their mouth is and actually putting, you know, some of these options on.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Well, this is actually mostly hedge funds from the research that I conducted going into this because I wanted to know, is it, this is consumers retail, which.
Speaker A:Controls a lot of the money.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, it's mostly hedge funds driven.
Speaker B:It's almost like a hedge against the market, if you will.
Speaker B:So they have bets that'll go in their favor if fear starts picking up long term.
Speaker B:Think Treasuries for example.
Speaker B:If Treasuries start to rise long term, stuff like that, or they start to go longer, higher, short term, they, they hedge that risk with downside risk on the vix.
Speaker B:So volatility picks up here and the VIX rises.
Speaker B:They're going to lose money, but they're going to pick that money up in near term treasury income.
Speaker A:I think a lot of people have a difficulty understanding hedging in general.
Speaker B:So let's get into that.
Speaker B:Positions heading into the shutdown were very polarized.
Speaker B:The s and P500 posts, one of its best six month runs in history.
Speaker B:Short positions in volatility is high, meaning that they are betting that there's not going to be increased volatility in the months to come.
Speaker B:That's what they're hedging.
Speaker B:So now the other side of this is they probably have large bets on things like near term Treasuries.
Speaker B:If the near term Treasuries rise, the one year, two year, three year Treasuries, those, those rise, then guess what, they're going to make some money off that.
Speaker B:But in the worst case event scenario, they don't.
Speaker B:They know that'll probably mean the VIX will rise.
Speaker B:So they're trying to lock in their profitability saying we're going to make money either way.
Speaker A:Either way, exactly.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So it's not exactly what you think.
Speaker B: at their highest level since: Speaker B:A spike would result result in widespread short covering.
Speaker B:And the natural logical question is, Chris, what the does that all mean?
Speaker B:So the COBIS letter graph you could rejeel.
Speaker B: For the first time since: Speaker B:And investors are bracing.
Speaker B:For investors like hedge funds, this would furlough 750,000 workers per day, costing around 400 million in daily compensation.
Speaker B:That is a big ass number.
Speaker A:Oh yeah.
Speaker B: ment shutdown was in December: Speaker B:The shutdown lasted 35 days.
Speaker B:35 days, that's a long ass time and worth noting.
Speaker A:So if you're a government employee, that's deemed as being non essential.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:You're furloughed.
Speaker A:You can come back whenever we resume.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:But if you're considered essential, I know you still got to show up to work every day and then we'll figure out the payments options later.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:There is no guarantee of payment at the end of the month.
Speaker B:You're actually working for future wages.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Which is also a kind of a wild concept.
Speaker B:35 days.
Speaker B:That meant that those workers went a full month without getting paid and then got paid ultimately into the next month, which sure, they get recaptured, but that's not a fun experience and there's, there's.
Speaker A:All kinds of, of impacts to this.
Speaker A:Now some people might be listening to this and who knows where this shakes out by the time this episode drops.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:But some people, oh, you guys are make making this into a big deal.
Speaker B:No, it's a big deal.
Speaker A:You should know that it's a big deal.
Speaker A:And more importantly, this won't be the last time.
Speaker A:This is like dangled in front of you.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Over the course of your lifetime.
Speaker A:You're going to, we're going to be hearing about government shout out years we've done this show.
Speaker B:How many times we have we heard this threat?
Speaker A:A lot.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Oh yeah, A lot.
Speaker A:And the fear for a lot of times is this always tends to come about right before Congress goes like on vacation.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And they're not supposed to come back for a while and like wait a minute, you're going to shut down and go on vacation?
Speaker A:This doesn't make a lot of sense.
Speaker B:It's a lot of political maneuvering around Time and headlines.
Speaker A:Oh yeah.
Speaker A:And it's, it's strategy.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:They're using this to, you know, to their favor one way or the other.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Both sides.
Speaker A:But this, this can, this impacts a lot of people.
Speaker A:Now, sure, it might not impact people who are already currently receiving things like Social Security or Medicare.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:But new applications.
Speaker B:Yeah, new applications, certainly.
Speaker B:Look, people are going to feel it.
Speaker B:There's going to be somebody who walks into something that doesn't even think about it being a government related business.
Speaker B:They're going to be like, oh, I can't do that.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And this is the frustration, man.
Speaker A:People like this, again, like we're going to get into later in the episode how millennials like baby, baby boomers have made, you know, are currently hold a great portion of the wealth.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And unfortunately that comes at the expense of millennials and other generations after them.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And, and they don't get to experience that same amount of wealth at the time that baby boomers did.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:But.
Speaker B:And foreshadow a little bit, not only is it worse, but they're also holding on to it for longer, limiting the next generation's ability to obtain said wealth.
Speaker B:They're on their own.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker A:And we, you and I have had countless amounts of conversations with people expressing that.
Speaker A:But again, this is just another example of people working in the systems, thinking that the system will take care of me so long as I do everything that I'm told that I'm going to do.
Speaker A:And now look, now look, now, now, now we're here, right?
Speaker A:We already got the housing affordability crisis.
Speaker A:We got student loan debt payments out of control, credit card debt out of control, retirement savings not up to par.
Speaker A:And it's like, now I got to deal with this too.
Speaker A:Not even getting paid for the work that I'm doing.
Speaker A:Come on.
Speaker A:Will this also affect like say, ICE agents?
Speaker A:Will they be working without getting pay or are they considered like, essential?
Speaker B:My guess is they're considered essential given their policing function.
Speaker B:I mean, I, I could, I could argue both ways for the essentialness of it, but given that so much this is politically polarized, it would not surprise me if they continue to function as normal.
Speaker A:Okay, what about like say, tax returns or federal tax returns?
Speaker B:So the tax returns, the IRS has already been somewhat weakened a great deal.
Speaker B:They were supposed to hire a bunch of people under the inflation reduction act.
Speaker A:But 80 some thousand.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, but that got curtailed a little bit and then they let go.
Speaker A:Of a lot of people.
Speaker B:Ye.
Speaker B:Let go of a lot of people.
Speaker B:Since that time They've also made some interesting statements as it relates to tariff costs and possible refunds for people.
Speaker B:But all of that at this point is just kind of fodder that's out in the ether.
Speaker B:There's really nothing been clear from the irs.
Speaker B:Somebody else, I'll say, like, there's a lot of government agencies and the IRS is certainly one of them.
Speaker B:The SEC is another one of them that are, they have a huge responsibility that are wildly underfunded, right?
Speaker A:And let's just take a little, a little left turn here.
Speaker A:Your boys, your boy's been dealing with the IRS the last two months.
Speaker B:Who?
Speaker B:You.
Speaker A:Me?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Really?
Speaker B:So what did you do?
Speaker A:Everyone remembers when my wife got into that car accident, right?
Speaker A:And we had to get a new car and yeah, we opted to go electric, right?
Speaker A:Bought that Volkswagen 7,500 federal tax credit on top of that, they were offering 0% financing at the time.
Speaker A:So cool, you know, no problem.
Speaker A:All good.
Speaker A:Coming.
Speaker A:We file our tax return, IRS comes back like, hey, you owe us seven grand.
Speaker A:Wait, what they going on?
Speaker B:Who'd you file with?
Speaker B:You have a CPA or did you TurboTax?
Speaker A:No, I had a CPA, but then I obviously, I reviewed it all and everything looked good.
Speaker A:He claimed it the right way.
Speaker A:And then we submitted it and they came back and like, nope, you don't qualify for the federal tax credit.
Speaker B:Why is that?
Speaker A:I'm like, yeah, exactly.
Speaker A:Why is that, Christopher?
Speaker A:Come to find out, the dealership never submitted the VIN number, right?
Speaker B:How's that your problem?
Speaker A:How's exactly how you still bought the car?
Speaker A:I got the car and someone's gonna pay for it.
Speaker A:I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna pay for this.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:So then I had to.
Speaker A:I contact the dealership and you got like a 30 day window to explain.
Speaker A:And I'm calling the IRS and I'm on hold for five hours.
Speaker A:Gets disconnected, have to call back again.
Speaker A:Like it's insane.
Speaker A:It's just madness.
Speaker A:That I have to do is I'm, I'm letting the dealership know, like you guys are putting me through this.
Speaker A:Like I just bought a car from you guys.
Speaker A:This is a terrible experience, right?
Speaker A:We'll take care of it.
Speaker A:We'll take care of it.
Speaker A:Come to find out then, now all the people that had bought electric cars from them, they never submitted VIN numbers for any of them.
Speaker B:Holy.
Speaker A:There was a glitch in the system and they, they never resolved it.
Speaker A:Oops.
Speaker A:So look, little fun, little fun fact for our listeners.
Speaker A:When you are buying a car, make sure that the deal.
Speaker A:You get some type of confirmation from them letting you know that.
Speaker A:I mean, I know it's officially coming to an end now, but hopefully you got some type of confirmation earlier this year that you did.
Speaker A:And if you haven't, go back and make sure that they did actually submit your VIN number.
Speaker A:So I submit it.
Speaker A:I type up this whole appeal process, printing out emails, providing my sales contract to show them that I didn't receive the $7,500 based on the sales price.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Showing them it wasn't deducted from the sales price.
Speaker A:Submit it all to them, and then three weeks later, this is just last week, getting a notice.
Speaker A:We haven't received your $7,000 payment.
Speaker A:It's due now.
Speaker A:Please pay it before we Levy.
Speaker A:Put a levy on your home.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:And I'm like, what are you talking.
Speaker A:And then the next day, I get.
Speaker A:I get a response saying, we received your.
Speaker A:Your appeal.
Speaker A:Please allow us 60 days to reply.
Speaker A:I'm like, y' all got two departments sending me letters, and you guys aren't even talking to one another.
Speaker B:I've done this process before.
Speaker B:I'm actually going through it now with one of my companies, so it takes a long time.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And it's so stressful.
Speaker B:It's stressful.
Speaker B:Their systems are antiquated.
Speaker B:They don't talk to one another.
Speaker B:And again, I'm not knocking anybody who works for them.
Speaker B:These are just.
Speaker B:These are just facts.
Speaker A:Hey, I love you guys, bro, I know.
Speaker B:We have an audit conversation.
Speaker B:I've been audited before the whole thing.
Speaker B: So right now, in: Speaker B:My corporate tax return for Black Crown, Inc.
Speaker B:The.
Speaker B:The company.
Speaker B:I filed it.
Speaker B:But you can't file some of these company returns electronically.
Speaker B:You got to mail them in.
Speaker B:I mailed them in.
Speaker B:I've got proof of delivery, right?
Speaker B:Like, I've got proof.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:So literally, I didn't hear anything from them until literally, like, six months ago.
Speaker B: I'm like, it's: Speaker B:It's been years.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Come on, guys.
Speaker B:We didn't receive a return.
Speaker B:Okay, no problem.
Speaker B:Here's my proof of delivery.
Speaker B:Here's a copy of the return, and here's a copy of all the payments.
Speaker A:Yep, all good, right?
Speaker B:Here you go.
Speaker A:And now you're sitting waiting again.
Speaker B:Mind you, it took them three years.
Speaker A:To figure out they didn't have time.
Speaker B:I get, like, a week later, a letter from them saying, cool, cool, cool.
Speaker B:Thank you.
Speaker B:Here's a fine for the maximum of 220 per month for one year.
Speaker B: ,: Speaker B:I'm like, what?
Speaker A:You guys got it?
Speaker B:Hold on.
Speaker A:I got proof.
Speaker A:I showed you the proof.
Speaker A:Yeah, man.
Speaker A:And here's a problem.
Speaker A:Hey, we love you.
Speaker B:I don't even want to argue.
Speaker B:I don't want to argue.
Speaker A:Hey.
Speaker A:I don't want.
Speaker A:This is what.
Speaker A:These are a group, a set of people I do not want to smoke with.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So I told you.
Speaker B:And I'm like, just mail them a check.
Speaker B:Yeah, just mail them a check.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Just get them out of our hand.
Speaker B:It's not fair.
Speaker B:I'm like, you know what's not fair?
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Colonoscopy you'll get.
Speaker B:Or the pegging you'll get later on.
Speaker B:Don't, don't.
Speaker B:Don't poke the bear.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And certainly don't try to peg it.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:No poking.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:No poking bears.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So I'm happily going to pay it.
Speaker A:And go about my life and leave them in hibernation.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Regal.
Speaker B:Trust me, they're not hibernating.
Speaker A:But also, like, like, during this time, you got to think so much of not so.
Speaker A:I mean, we know 70% of GDP is based on consumer spending.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:But a good portion of GDP is also based on government spending.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's right.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So what does that do to GDP figures ultimately?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Well, I'm glad you brought that up, because not in the show notes, but a relevant point.
Speaker B:The Bureau of Labor Statistics came out and said, oh, hey, guys, you got some data reports due out this Friday, the first week of August, October, and if we have a government shutdown, that is not essential.
Speaker B:So you're not going to be getting those reports.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:The jobs report.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Oops.
Speaker A:The one that.
Speaker A:The one that the Fed really wants to see that they're relying on.
Speaker B:So again, we're going to put on the tinfoil hats.
Speaker A:Put them on.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And some of this is not really a conspiracy theory because Trump has come out and said, like, straight up, that there are programs that he would not be able to impact and things he would not be able to do if there were not for a shutdown.
Speaker B:So it isn't, quote, the worst thing that could happen.
Speaker B:That is not me speculating.
Speaker B:That's essentially what he said.
Speaker B:I'm paraphrasing because I don't have the actual quote in front of me.
Speaker B:Yeah, R. Leave it.
Speaker B:Leave that one up.
Speaker B:We're going to pull that one back up in a second.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:But so I think in some ways he may want that to put pressure on the Fed.
Speaker B:You want to Fly.
Speaker B:Fly blind.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:You know what I mean?
Speaker A:Like, no, there's, I, I forget.
Speaker A:I'm trying to remember where I, where I read this, but across like all, like all political parties, like, less than 10% of, of everybody believe in the data being reported in all of these reports.
Speaker B:Can you imagine?
Speaker A:Can you.
Speaker A:And then the entire monetary policy is based on this data, Right?
Speaker A:It's like, wait a minute.
Speaker A:And then the worst part to the worst part, just take cpi, for instance.
Speaker A:They aren't even required to show you where they got the data from and you can't audit them.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Hey, can you imagine that in high school, bro?
Speaker A:Can you imagine me sending, me sending in a, like an underwriting for a loan and being like, I'm not gonna tell you where I got these numbers from.
Speaker A:You gotta take it for face value.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:But I might revise them in a month.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So make your decision.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker B:These may be rising and then everybody in the room can know it's gonna be revised down, but everybody has to go with those numbers.
Speaker B:That's what's in front of you.
Speaker A:And we're all, and we're all just like, yeah, let's, let's just keep going.
Speaker A:And dude, it impacts so many things.
Speaker A:Okay, forget monetary policy, right?
Speaker A:Cost of living that gets adjusted year over year for like, things like Social Security.
Speaker B:Not only that, at the end of the year when you go to your salary increase from your job and you go, hey, this is what the cost of living went up last year.
Speaker B:They go, no, it's not.
Speaker B:Can't rely on that data.
Speaker A:Can't rely on it.
Speaker B:Yeah, I'm going to give you a 3% cost of living.
Speaker A:Mm.
Speaker B:It says went up 9%.
Speaker B:It's wrong.
Speaker A:It's wrong.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I don't believe it.
Speaker A:It's so, it's so messed up.
Speaker A:And I think people, like logically think that these reports are made.
Speaker A:For instance, again, the CPI report right there, it's not measuring the cost of something going up or down.
Speaker A:Like, hey, I bought bread this month.
Speaker A:Bread now used to be a dollar or whatever, $10.
Speaker A:Now it's $10.50.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:That's not what it's measuring.
Speaker A:No, no, it's measuring the standard of living.
Speaker A:So, like, if the price of a basket of goods goes up, they expect you to, to pick an alternative option that's cheaper.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:What if I don't like alternative options?
Speaker B:I'm gonna keep the same standard of living.
Speaker A:Standard of living.
Speaker A:Like, what is this?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And we're all just like, cool, Trust.
Speaker B:Me, if you were a single guy and you do this in your dating life, you would not be getting.
Speaker B:You would not be getting that.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You do.
Speaker A:No action.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You'd be closing down shop.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:You would have taken a long personal furlough.
Speaker B:All right, so let's close it.
Speaker B:Close the loop on the government shutdown.
Speaker B:35 days.
Speaker B:Last time.
Speaker B:The length of.
Speaker B:Last one, it was the longest government shutdown in history.
Speaker B:The average length of a government shutdown is eight days, and its implications spread further when it lasts longer.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker B:And Rajille's chart here shows the last one being the longest one.
Speaker B:And again, that was during Trump's first term.
Speaker B:So clearly he's not afraid of going the distance.
Speaker A:Damn.
Speaker A:2018.
Speaker A:So long ago.
Speaker B:But you might be thinking, oh, my God, this is gonna be cataclysmic to the markets.
Speaker B:Well, the data says otherwise.
Speaker B:Markets generally don't respond adversely at all.
Speaker B:86% of shutdowns saw that.
Speaker B:The S&P 500 ended higher 12 months later with an average gain of 12.7%.
Speaker B:So government shutdown, it's one of those.
Speaker A:Situations where, like, you might see the market move, and if it does move just during that time of the shutdown or, you know, immediately thereafter, it.
Speaker A:That's not going to be enough to keep it down.
Speaker A:It'll eventually pick itself back up.
Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:Ready to get in the meat and potatoes of the show here.
Speaker B:The meat and potatoes, the big beefy part.
Speaker A:The Hawaiian ribeye and fries.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Truffle fries, if you.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Younger generations won't get wealthy when they need it.
Speaker B:And I have been the first person to criticize people who use the argument, Chris, I don't want to invest in a 401k because I won't be able to access that money until I'm 65.
Speaker B:And I'm like, dude, you got to have a plan B.
Speaker B:Well, the.
Speaker B:The great wealth transfer by generation.
Speaker B:You're going to inherit it when you're already old.
Speaker B:That's what's going to happen here.
Speaker B:And we're going to prove this out, because don't take my word for it.
Speaker B:We're here to provide data.
Speaker A:Data.
Speaker A:I'm a data guy.
Speaker B:Data.
Speaker B:Not data.
Speaker A:I'm not a data guy.
Speaker A:I'm a data guy.
Speaker B:I feel like it's really classy to say data.
Speaker A:Yeah, it is.
Speaker A:It is classier.
Speaker B:It's classier.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:What about you, Rail?
Speaker A:It doesn't matter.
Speaker A:It means the same thing.
Speaker B:That's not true.
Speaker A:That's not true, bro.
Speaker A:You don't say tomato, and then later in a sentence, say tomato.
Speaker B:If I did the entire show like this, everyone would be like, oh, my God, he's so sophisticated.
Speaker A:I think you should.
Speaker B:Perception is reality.
Speaker A:I think people lock.
Speaker A:Get locked in.
Speaker B:Really?
Speaker B:Let's look at the data then, shall we?
Speaker B:All right, so the U.
Speaker B:US wealth by generation chart that Regil has pulled up.
Speaker B:If you're driving, we'll explain it.
Speaker B:But this is the.
Speaker B:The chart that started this whole thing.
Speaker B:This is the chart that I was like, what the actual shit's going on here?
Speaker B:And for those of you who have the same problem that I do, these generational, like, names, the names that.
Speaker A:Who's who again, I.
Speaker B:It causes me problems.
Speaker A:Like, I'm like.
Speaker A:I just know that I'm a millennial, and that's all that matters to me.
Speaker B:And I feel like in a room full of people, like, nobody wants to say that qu.
Speaker B:It part out loud.
Speaker B:Like, what the Is he talking?
Speaker B:I don't know which generation that is.
Speaker A:Yeah, Silent.
Speaker B:So the millennials.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B: Born from: Speaker A:Boy, you barely made the cut off.
Speaker B:Barely.
Speaker B:Boy, I'm not a millennial.
Speaker B:They are at the really the lowest of wealth creation here on the chart at 14.22.
Speaker B:Actually, I shouldn't say that.
Speaker B:Yeah, you know, it is.
Speaker B:It's $14.21 trillion.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker B: of: Speaker B:So that's our starting point.
Speaker B:That's the lowest number of total aggregate wealth.
Speaker B: Gen X, born: Speaker B:My generation, 39.09 trillion.
Speaker B:More than double what millennials have been able to create, and the second largest on the chart we're going to talk about.
Speaker B:But what's really important there is the natur to say is, Chris, if they're younger, they have less wealth.
Speaker B:If they're older, they have more wealth.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:They got a.
Speaker A:They got a.
Speaker A:A head start.
Speaker A:They've it.
Speaker A:We always talk about it.
Speaker A:It's time in the market.
Speaker A:They've been in the market longer until.
Speaker B:You'Ve been in the market way too long and started spending that wealth.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker B:And that's where we get to the baby boomer generation.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B: to: Speaker B:$78.55 trillion.
Speaker B: of: Speaker B: silent Generation Born before: Speaker B: her than the millennials born: Speaker B:They never saw the same wealth gap and same wealth creation the baby boomers did.
Speaker B:And again, baby boomers were supposed to be the ones that kicked off this big wealth transfer to Gen X and the millennials.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:Yep, yep.
Speaker A:And I, and here's the problem that a lot of people are relying by people, I mean people in, you know, high government positions or people at institutions like senior management.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:That are, that see these problems and they're looming and wondering, oh my God, is this going to be a catalyst to the, the, the next like Great Depression, if you will.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Like which one of these things.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Is it the unaffordability crisis?
Speaker A:Is it the student debt crisis?
Speaker A:Is it the lack of retirement savings?
Speaker A:Is it high interest credit card, household debt?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Or a combination of all of these things?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:And they, and their, their solution to the problem is, well, we know that there's going to be a transfer of wealth of let's just say $78 trillion at some point between now and, and the next 20 years.
Speaker B:Is there?
Speaker A:No, no, no, I get it.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And I'm here to call BS too.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Because a lot of it, first of all, the way these numbers are even estimated, like a great portion of a great portion of this is not, maybe not a great, but definitely at least like 10 to 20% of it is private businesses.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Like that, that people own the higher.
Speaker B:Standards worth $10 million in case anyone's.
Speaker A:Looking and anyone's buying.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Unless you're the irs, in which case is worth nothing.
Speaker A:I do, I do have a price.
Speaker A:I do have a price tag.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Just ask.
Speaker A:I'll let you know.
Speaker A:But to, for, for us, it would be irresponsible for us to tell somebody to bank on an inheritance from their parents.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:You're good.
Speaker A:Hey, you're Gucci.
Speaker A:You're.
Speaker A:It would be irresponsible of us.
Speaker A:So why is it not irresponsible for any, anybody else to consider this and plan on it to help fix a problem?
Speaker B:And here's the trickle down effect is, is the reason why I would be responsible for us to recommend that somebody is.
Speaker B:You're likely to inherit money when you're too old to really enjoy it quite the same way.
Speaker B:And those companies that are banking on you inheriting it are, unless they're in like some type of Retirement, like maybe trust planning or some type of like older community asset based kind of situation.
Speaker B:There's really not a benefit to them to having customers of your age demographic if they're going to have a customer in you for maybe five or ten years for you die.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker B:And that's really the arc of where most people seem to be in the inheritance phase, which I know people are going to be like, wait, wait, am I going to inherit stuff when I die?
Speaker B:Well, yeah, I think that's kind of what we're going to get to here.
Speaker B:Millennials keep hearing about the great wealth transfer.
Speaker B:At this rate, they might get their inheritance around the same time they start applying for Social Security.
Speaker B:And for those of you who haven't done that yet, that's the age of 65.
Speaker A:It might go up.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's probably going to go up.
Speaker B:And that.
Speaker B:That's good.
Speaker B:It's probably, that's.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Not good for you.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Tonight we're going to prove this out.
Speaker B:It's not just that the boomers won't hand down their wealth yet.
Speaker B:They also aren't vacating the top jobs.
Speaker A:Really?
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:Like what?
Speaker A:At what jobs?
Speaker B:With CEOs average age being 59 years old and a growing share of the people working into their late 60s, younger generations are boxed out from both paychecks and power.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's pretty powerful.
Speaker A:Yeah, I know it's, I mean, you, you sit and you think back and you're like, well, I wasn't around during the Gen X era.
Speaker A:Maybe you can shed a, shed a little bit of light, Mr. Feeney.
Speaker A:I mean, what, what was the average, what was the average age of a CEO, I don't know, 20 years ago.
Speaker B:So I would say that it's crept up not as much as the average age of the working employee, which I think is probably a more meaningful demograph.
Speaker B:Average age of a CEO and the same average age of most politicians have also creeped up as well.
Speaker B:People really in control of the policies and decision making.
Speaker B:And we're going to get into a little bit of the explanation of why this is the way that it is in shortly here in a little bit.
Speaker B:Those have stayed relatively high throughout this, but certainly crept higher.
Speaker B:But the average working employee age is getting notably higher, which means that people are working for longer.
Speaker B:And if they're not leaving their senior leadership roles, you can't take that role as a younger person.
Speaker B:And then, guess what?
Speaker B:When it comes time for you to be a CEO, you don't have the same senior leadership experience that Somebody else did.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:So they just hire another older person to fill that gap instead of, you know, somebody they're gonna get, you know, bet on a chance.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:We had this conversation tonight about Jerome Powell on episode 302 where, you know, you're really gonna ask Jerome Powell about AI.
Speaker B:Why aren't you asking Jensen over at, you know, Nvidia?
Speaker B:Exactly right.
Speaker B:I mean, that's a very different demographic.
Speaker B:Baby boomers own more than half of US wealth.
Speaker B: of: Speaker B:That's 52% of everything.
Speaker B:The kicker, they make up less than 20% of the population.
Speaker B:So when we talk on previous shows about the wealth gap, that's.
Speaker B:That's widening.
Speaker B:This is where it's widening the most.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:It's true.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Millennials, despite being the largest workforce, are still at the bottom.
Speaker B: Born through: Speaker B:They are now in their late 20s and up to the early 40s, peak earning years for most of us.
Speaker B:And they're still stuck fighting for scraps compared to boomers and Gen X, who by that time were Al Bundy and already in an older.
Speaker B:That.
Speaker B:Here's the part that pisses me off.
Speaker B:They looked older because they had older.
Speaker B:Bigger boy jobs.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's right.
Speaker B:Bigger girl jobs.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:I mean, I know it's.
Speaker B:I keep using sitcom analogies here, but the reality that you have to face when you look at these sitcoms were they had more responsibility at their ages than we did.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And it was also influencing all of our perceptions.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:During that time.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Something that these things aren't taken into account too, is long, long term health care costs.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:For retirees.
Speaker A:Obvious.
Speaker A:I think retirees are also living longer.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So spending down some of these assets and you got.
Speaker A:Not only that, but these assets are based on gross figures.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:They are.
Speaker A:And so they're not accounting for debts, fees associated with them as they get transferred down.
Speaker A:We talked about on the show, we had get dynasty.com on how many people don't have a trust.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:We have that.
Speaker A:We had that debt on that show.
Speaker A:Go back and check it out.
Speaker B:And it's also ignore, ignoring that whole great wealth transfer.
Speaker B:If I am one of the baby boomers and I've had the $78.55 trillion that I'm going to pass on also hard, bro ball.
Speaker B:So hard.
Speaker B:And I'm going to pass this on to my kids, I'm sure a lot of them are going to be like, all right, here, you have it.
Speaker B:Have the money however you want it.
Speaker B:But some of them, some of them are going to say, yeah, Billy, you'll never get this.
Speaker B:You'll never get this.
Speaker A:I don't trust you with this.
Speaker B:I am a philanthropist.
Speaker A:La la la la la.
Speaker B:I mean there's going to be like, you know, there's gonna be some gift giving.
Speaker B:There's gonna be some limits and you know, some covenants, some controls put in place to limit how they spend things.
Speaker B:So it's not gonna be as clear and you know, fluid as a transfer.
Speaker A:People think, dude, and a huge portion of this, I would, I would imagine a huge portion of this is going to go to the wealthiest families already.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker A:So it's like, who is it really helping people?
Speaker A:They don't need the help.
Speaker B:Gen X.
Speaker B:Meanwhile, they're closing in.
Speaker B:Just to be clear, I am Gen X. Yeah.
Speaker B: to: Speaker B: stock market run up and post: Speaker B:And the problem for that's foreshadowing a little bit.
Speaker B: the millennials, which again: Speaker B:And the stock markets run up.
Speaker B:They got the stock markets run up kind of about midway through.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker B:And real estate was never cheap when they really came about buying age and had jobs that could afford it.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:So that is created a problem that's unique that we're going to talk about where I think there is a tremendous downside risk to that generation and their wealth.
Speaker B:Even on this chart which only controls 14.21 trillion.
Speaker B:I think a lot of that has to do with the fact they couldn't buy real estate.
Speaker B:But that also includes top of stock market values.
Speaker A:Valid.
Speaker B:And there's also some breakdown we can do there to explain why the risk to that generation is unbelievably underrated.
Speaker B: , the older folks born before: Speaker B:Much of this is fuel for the so called great wealth transfer.
Speaker B:An estimated 84 trillion set to move from boomers to the silent.
Speaker A:So think about it.
Speaker A:That just means baby boomers are even going to get wealthier.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker B:That's absolutely right.
Speaker B:So 20 trillion ish.
Speaker B:Call it 19.84 trillion.
Speaker B: ion, the sound generation, pre: Speaker B:And who's that going to go to?
Speaker B:The majority of it is going to go to the boomers.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:So let's just say.
Speaker B:Let's just say half.
Speaker B:10.
Speaker B:10 trillion goes to the boomers.
Speaker B:They're going to control $88 trillion, almost 55% of the overall net worth in the economy.
Speaker A:Wild.
Speaker B:And that's not like anywhere near as long as it's going to take for the millennials or for Gen X to get there.
Speaker B:That's.
Speaker B:That's like in the next couple years.
Speaker A:This is all based on, I think a life expectancy of 78 and a half years old.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So I'm not saying to.
Speaker A:This is all kind of so like morbid.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:You're thinking about what people naturally are going to be listening to this episode.
Speaker B:Thinking these guys are ageist morbid.
Speaker A:We talk about pegging, they're talking about Peggy and, and plotting their parents death.
Speaker A:What?
Speaker B:Oh, I would never plot anybody's death.
Speaker A:Not plotting.
Speaker A:I'm just.
Speaker B:My parents are poor.
Speaker B:That's just gonna cost me money.
Speaker A:I'm just trying to see when I could plan on potentially getting some.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker A:No, those are just saying.
Speaker B:No, you.
Speaker B:Hey, Regill, that sound like we meant that, right?
Speaker A:No, you manifested it right there.
Speaker B:Yeah, see?
Speaker B:Yeah, manifested.
Speaker A:God forbid, man.
Speaker B:Trying to get some properties.
Speaker B:No, I ain't getting.
Speaker B:All right, so I've got a chart here, Rajille.
Speaker B:I don't know that you can pull it up in the, in the show notes on the screen, but I think it's important.
Speaker B:I don't want to cover all of it.
Speaker B:I just went down the rabbit hole a little bit and I did some metrics and inside here, if you want to pull over the actual notes, you can probably pull it over easiest that way.
Speaker A:And just make such like an uncomfortable conversation to have.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:It's wildly.
Speaker A:But it's.
Speaker A:But it's a necessary one.
Speaker A:How does a kid even bring that up to their parents?
Speaker A:Like in my culture, forget about it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You're not.
Speaker A:No, no, it's.
Speaker A:There's like, there's literally no way.
Speaker B:There's.
Speaker A:They wouldn't even begin to comprehend or understand it.
Speaker B:So for those of you guys who never see the show notes and you're watching on YouTube or Spotify and you haven't subscribed and left an honest five star review, this is your opportunity to go do so.
Speaker A:Yeah, we'll take a brief pause.
Speaker A:Go ahead and do that, you know, appreciate the greatness in front of you.
Speaker B:But you also get to see a little bit of our behind the scenes shown us would use Apple Notes for this.
Speaker B:So many surveys and studies put the average US retirement age at about 62 years of age.
Speaker B:Even though people are living longer, many still retire in their 60s, which suggests the extension of working life is a bit uneven as you go down the path there.
Speaker B:There's, there's more here to think about.
Speaker B:But let's cover just the highlight points.
Speaker B: In: Speaker B:Now it's closer to 62.
Speaker B:So you see that it's going up.
Speaker B:The labor force participation rate for people 55 and over is currently about 38, according to FRED data.
Speaker B:That's the Federal Reserve data.
Speaker B:23.4% as of recent data is the labor force participation for those over 65 without a disability.
Speaker B: % in: Speaker B:Notice all these age groups are going up in their labor participation.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:You're just working longer.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B: By: Speaker B: % in: Speaker A:Somewhere Lex Friedman is fixing this problem.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Him and Joe Rogan are like, how do we get AI to do this?
Speaker A:We can figure this out.
Speaker B:65.9 of labor force for ages 55 through 64.
Speaker B:Participation rate 65.9.
Speaker B:55 through that 64 wild.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So the overwhelming majority of them are still in fact working and participating in the labor markets.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And a good portion of that has to do with maybe they didn't save enough during, during all those years to retire.
Speaker A:And the cost of living is just wildly out of control, man.
Speaker B:Yeah, some of it is that we just are generally a healthier, longer living population and people, humans need work.
Speaker B:Work gives them purpose.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Do you envision yourself working that late?
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:So my, my ideals have had monumental shifts in the last couple of months as it relates to work leaving corporate America and having the time that I've had off of it.
Speaker B:I don't know that I can work the same anymore.
Speaker A:I mean that, that was very, a very, very stressful environment.
Speaker B:So it was, it was corporate red tape.
Speaker B:Let's just remove the stress and the political stuff out of the way.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:We have friends, you and I, that.
Speaker B:That made good money.
Speaker B:And I. I certainly placed value on title, prestige and money.
Speaker B:Different.
Speaker B:Different values in different.
Speaker B:Different ways, but certainly prestige in all three of them.
Speaker B:And now I've had time to sit at home with my son and play Minecraft, something like I just didn't have time to do before.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:My wife and I can go to the gym together, and I don't know that I can go back to it.
Speaker A:Yeah, there's.
Speaker A:You have a.
Speaker A:Now a sense of appreciation for that.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:That time.
Speaker B:I think I'll probably always work on something like the podcast is a great example, but I don't know.
Speaker B:And I'm a very fortunate, lucky person, so I'm not.
Speaker B:I'm not discounting that.
Speaker B:I have a bit of a unique set of circumstances.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:But it sounds like I see people like Andy Frisella, and you know that I've talked to Andy about this a couple of times who talk about corporate America trapping you in their mindset.
Speaker B:And when someone like Andy says it, who is incredibly successful.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:You can't question it.
Speaker B:Like, he built a company, built something real, and you have him say it, or you have someone like Rogan talking about it.
Speaker B:It's easy to dismiss someone like Rogan talking about it, saying like, hey, you had a set of circumstances, you were a struggling actor, and then, you know, made your bones in comedy.
Speaker B:And then this podcast thing happened.
Speaker B:So much of this was luck.
Speaker B:But I'm reminded of a quote, ironically, with Chris Williamson, and I think it was Alex Hormozi, where he was quoting to Alex Hormozi, that people will question why you work so hard, you know, and they'll remind you how important time is with your loved ones.
Speaker B:And then when you make it and succeed, they'll remind you how lucky you got.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Yeah, I know that I'm lucky.
Speaker B:We all need purpose, we all need work.
Speaker B:But my priorities are different now.
Speaker A:Yeah, now, Right.
Speaker A:I mean, there's going to be a time where, look, for, like, right now, we.
Speaker A:We've had.
Speaker A:I've had these conversations with so many people.
Speaker A:For the time being, all my kids want to do is spend time with me.
Speaker A:That's all they want to do.
Speaker A:It's literally, if I say, no, you can't.
Speaker A:Can I go hang out with so and so?
Speaker A:No, but you and I can do something great.
Speaker A:What are we gonna do?
Speaker A:They're all about it.
Speaker A:And I know that time is limited, and it's Going to burn so hard when that's gone.
Speaker B:My sister has older kids.
Speaker B:There's one in high school, one in junior high, and another one that's elementary school.
Speaker B:And she told me a long time ago when I first had our son.
Speaker B:You get 18 summers.
Speaker A:Yeah, man.
Speaker B:And then you live a son.
Speaker B:A summer with your son or your daughter, your kids, and you realize quickly that a summer goes by real fast.
Speaker B:And 18 summers flies by so goddamn fast that you forget it.
Speaker B:My son's 6.
Speaker B:I felt like I had him yesterday.
Speaker A:I know, I know.
Speaker A:My son's 9.
Speaker B:I remember when you had him.
Speaker A:I'm halfway there, dude.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know what I mean?
Speaker A:Like, I'm.
Speaker A:How.
Speaker A:And like, he's turning.
Speaker A:He's turning.
Speaker A:Obviously, he's nine, turning 10.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:That means I've been a dad for a decade, bro.
Speaker A:It doesn't feel like it.
Speaker A:Like, obviously, if you stop and you think about all the things that you went through, you're like, okay, yeah.
Speaker A:But, like, I don't know.
Speaker A:It's still.
Speaker A:It blows me away, and it.
Speaker A:It pains me to think about that time where, like, they're not gonna be around.
Speaker A:But my question, I guess, is, to your point earlier, we all need purpose.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So we do, but so I find.
Speaker B:We'Ve been taught to believe that purpose comes from work.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:It doesn't have to.
Speaker A:It doesn't have to.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:In an ideal set of circumstances, it would be nice where, you know, I don't need to earn that high of a.
Speaker A:Of a paycheck.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:To support the.
Speaker A:The lifestyle that we have, and I could do something that I enjoy more, and I don't mind, you know, going in and working for.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Whatever that.
Speaker A:Whatever that may be, whether that might be a director of a basketball league or, you know, even.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Do something fun.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know what I mean?
Speaker B:You can still do podcast with me, but they won't be making millions doing this, obviously.
Speaker B:And then, you know, Rajill, you and.
Speaker A:Me, I mean, the value of a dollar will be low.
Speaker A:So, yeah, we will be making millions, probably.
Speaker B:So basically, you're saying we'll make millions, but it won't be worth as much.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, exactly.
Speaker A:That million is not the same million it is today, my friend.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:So I want to break down a lot of the numbers that we just gave you in a more meaningful way, because I think it's important to really kind of talk about how this has impacted all of us, and you see it.
Speaker B:But I'm going to say a lot of the quiet parts out loud.
Speaker B:And I, I specifically going to say some of this because I know that there are employed people in the room of with me.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:CEO.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Say he's pushing the mic away.
Speaker B:CEOs may be a big part of the problem because culture comes from the top.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:According to Korn Ferry study of About a thousand US companies, the average age of a CEO is around 59 years old, like I said, making it the oldest role on average among C suite titles.
Speaker B:Me having come from corporate America, I can tell you that that has been my experience engaging with other executives of publicly traded companies and certainly much more common than people realize.
Speaker B:Obviously you see the tech people, people on television.
Speaker B:I don't think you get a lot of the traditional CEOs on television.
Speaker B:You get a lot of the younger, more, I guess, media savvy ones on television.
Speaker B:So you can see that and have the perspective be skewed a little bit.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Gatekeepers aging in place.
Speaker B:That's, that's kind of the overriding theme here.
Speaker B:If CEOs tend to be about 59 years or older, that means that many of them are holding top roles well into their 60s.
Speaker B:Keep in mind they're not retiring at 59.
Speaker B:It's the average age.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And some are even beyond that.
Speaker B:That slows turnover at the top, potentially reducing opportunities for the next generation of executives to advance into those ranks.
Speaker B:And this is not unique to CEOs.
Speaker B:I'm just taking a very visible title and position and applying that as a bigger proxy for all management in all companies.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And I'm not knocking the CEOs if you got it.
Speaker B:Good for you.
Speaker B:But let's be, let's be honest here.
Speaker B:Those CEOs do fall into the generation with the most wealth right now.
Speaker A:It's true.
Speaker A:And I, I think that, look, if they're gonna, I try to think about, okay, like in sports, this doesn't happen because you get old enough to, where we want the new young guy to, to rely upon and we see a better future in him.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:You've aged out.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:And we can't really rely on you long term.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Can't obviously do that in the workforce.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:It's hard, it's harder to pinpoint.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:You do do it on like board levels.
Speaker B:Boards usually have an age out age.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And, and that, and that was where I was going to take this is.
Speaker B:Like often wave it.
Speaker A:They often wave that.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And it's, I really think that this doesn't come down necessarily to maybe the CEO's been more so the board and their vision for the company and where they see this a company going that's got to ultimately rely on the board.
Speaker B:Mitch McConnell, he's kind of older to be doing his job.
Speaker B:He's had moments where people look at him and again, I'm not, I'm not a doctor.
Speaker A:It's hard to explain.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You look at him in some situations or say.
Speaker A:Just hard to justify.
Speaker B:Yeah, you just say physically, is he capable of, of doing the job the same way a 40 year old or a 50 year old would be capable of it right now?
Speaker B:Should he still be in place today?
Speaker B:Look, he does not look healthy.
Speaker B:I'm just calling that what it is.
Speaker A:83 years old, still doing his thing, man.
Speaker B:I, I look, I'm sure he's a wonderful resource.
Speaker A:It's part of that silent generation.
Speaker A:Yeah, he's going to pass down some.
Speaker B:Wealth to somebody who's probably 65 years old.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:So they're actually Google that.
Speaker B:Does Mitch McConnell have any kids?
Speaker B:And how old do that?
Speaker A:Yeah, click on that.
Speaker A:You click on that Wikipedia right there.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:All right, I see to the right.
Speaker B:That'S a much younger looking Mitch McConnell.
Speaker B:He doesn't look the same.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker A:The same guy.
Speaker B:Oh, he's got.
Speaker B:Is this wife Asian?
Speaker B:Oh, yeah, look at that.
Speaker A: Wait, and his wife, January: Speaker A:Is that when they got married or maybe.
Speaker B: that's a picture of them from: Speaker B:Have you not used Wikipedia before?
Speaker B:It's your first time?
Speaker A:I do not rely on Wikipedia.
Speaker B:I use Wikipedia a lot.
Speaker A:Come on, bro.
Speaker A:What chat?
Speaker A:Now you still use wiki, huh?
Speaker B:Yeah, for like quick searches.
Speaker A:Dude.
Speaker A:I read the other day that J.J. redick, head coach of the Lakers, spends an hour and a half a day on chat gbt.
Speaker A:He's like, I'm the kind of guy that goes down deep rabbit holes.
Speaker B:I could probably see.
Speaker B:I think I do about the same.
Speaker B:Yeah, I, I have, my query list is.
Speaker B:It is wild.
Speaker B:You're like, this dude's got ADHD.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Maybe just $3.
Speaker A:Three daughters.
Speaker A:Three daughters.
Speaker A: arried to his veterinary from: Speaker A:Okay, let's say their age.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:All right, well, I mean, that's like Gen X right there, right?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Suffice it to say that they're probably in their 60s.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:So that, that's, that's the inheritance age.
Speaker B:That goes to everything you need to know.
Speaker B:There's other problems though, with the delayed leadership refresh, if you will, because CEOs are older, companies may be hesitant to inject younger blood in the strategy culture and.
Speaker B:Or risk tolerance.
Speaker B:That can entrench legacy ways of thinking.
Speaker B:Especially when those CEOs were shaped in different eras.
Speaker B:Pre digital, pre globalization, pre Internet.
Speaker B:And I'm not sarcastic that that's pre Internet.
Speaker B:In 83 older CEOs might delay stepping down, either because they feel like they can still contribute, which I respect, I do.
Speaker B:Or because succession planning is fraught and risky.
Speaker B:You change the CEO, the market reacts.
Speaker A:That's true.
Speaker A:That is true.
Speaker A:Now, you know, industries where I.
Speaker A:You might probably.
Speaker A:You probably don't see this a whole lot.
Speaker B:Bob Iger, Disney.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Bob Chappett came in and just screwed the pooch so bad.
Speaker B:They brought Bob Iger back.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And we got to get.
Speaker B:And that was Bob Iger's handpicked successor, Bob Chapping.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's true.
Speaker A:But like in the tech industry, I don't think you see a whole lot of this.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:The tech industry needs to move so fast.
Speaker B:Well, you do see it with the founders and CEOs.
Speaker B:Like, people don't realize it.
Speaker B:With Zuckerberg.
Speaker B:Zuckerberg was part of the new era of founders and CEOs that came in that controlled the voting rights of the board and the stock.
Speaker B:He cannot be removed as CEO.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:He can't be voted out by the board.
Speaker B:And because of this very unique and questionably gray area legal structure, but is commonplace amongst founders CEOs in the tech space, he.
Speaker B:He will be there effectively until perpetuity.
Speaker B:Now the question becomes as long as.
Speaker A:He wants to be there.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:The question becomes at some point in time is.
Speaker B:Is when these founders and CEOs who started these.
Speaker B:Now large companies are the biggest companies in the world.
Speaker B:When and how will their transition look like?
Speaker B:Yes, and that, that's gonna be interesting because he.
Speaker B:He will have to choose that himself almost entirely.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Whereas someone like Bob Iger, he chose it himself at Disney, but was called back.
Speaker B:You've got all sorts of examples.
Speaker A:Like how old is.
Speaker A:Do me a favor.
Speaker A:How can you search.
Speaker A:How old is David Solomon?
Speaker A:David Solomon from Goldman Sachs?
Speaker B:Why David Solomon?
Speaker A:I just want to know someone.
Speaker A:Someone in like that space.
Speaker B:I think he's in his early 60s.
Speaker A:60S.
Speaker A:Was that the DJ?
Speaker A:Early?
Speaker A:Yeah, known as the DJ.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:63 years old.
Speaker B:63.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's right, stud.
Speaker B:Yeah, but 63.
Speaker A:63.
Speaker B:Two years away from retirement.
Speaker B:Do you think he's gonna retire?
Speaker B:No, bro.
Speaker B:He was out DJing last year.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker A:No, for.
Speaker A:For a long time.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And just got a healthy bonus this year too.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:30 million.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Not that I don't keep track of all.
Speaker B:I don't.
Speaker B:It's not the size of your bonus.
Speaker B:That's how you use it.
Speaker A:He's like, why would I walk away?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know what I mean?
Speaker B:He's paying for the pegging.
Speaker B:He's not being paid for it.
Speaker A:Two children right there.
Speaker B:Oh, you're going in the age path.
Speaker A:Mm.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So his kids are, my guess is probably in their late 30s.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So if you're like 30s, he's a healthy dude.
Speaker B:I would not be surprised.
Speaker B:He lived to be 80 years old.
Speaker A:Yep.
Speaker B:Which means his kids in his late 30s in call it 15 years from now, are going to be 50 something at the youngest.
Speaker B:And keep in mind his generation had kids in their early to mid twenties, so they could very well be in their forties.
Speaker B:So therein lies kind of, you know, the quandary of sorts.
Speaker B:There's an age bias here.
Speaker B:The fact that so many CEOs are older contributes to prestige, norms, experience, seniority.
Speaker B:Been there, done that.
Speaker B:But these become kind of implicit filters.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Younger would be.
Speaker B:Leaders would have to prove themselves in extraordinary ways to break through.
Speaker B:Because a person who's older seems more wise.
Speaker B:Not necessarily the case.
Speaker B:Firsthand experience for me.
Speaker B:There's also a narrative tension around whether leaders in their 70s can be attuned to fast moving trends.
Speaker B:Think tech, think esg, environmental, social, governance, AI.
Speaker B:As younger, more nimble executives come in with a little bit more of this kind of just ingrained in them, you know, our kids, for example, learn on iPads.
Speaker B:Some boards may hedge by holding on to trusted veterans rather than risk untested younger CEOs.
Speaker B:I've seen this time and time again, and I'll give you a great example.
Speaker B:Let's say private equity.
Speaker B:Private equity wants guaranteed as much as they can get.
Speaker B:Return on investment.
Speaker B:Why would they take a risk on an untested CEO when they can put somebody in who fits the mold?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:If the.
Speaker A:If the vision is long term, then maybe.
Speaker B:Right, yeah, if.
Speaker B:But private equity rarely holds for long term.
Speaker A:No, no, exactly.
Speaker A:They need to.
Speaker A:To prove up to their investors.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker B:They're here to turn a profit and turn a profit as quickly as can.
Speaker B:All this might sound like we're just going off on an older demographic, but I've got reasons for this.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:We've been setting you up.
Speaker B:Oh, that was the palate cleanser, believe it or not.
Speaker B:That was.
Speaker B:That was the ginger.
Speaker A:That was the port wine.
Speaker B:Yeah, you're now clear.
Speaker B:So Take a deep breath, everybody.
Speaker A:Okay?
Speaker B:Get ready for it, get ready for it.
Speaker B:We're going to waft in the smell of the steak.
Speaker B:All right, this from the Cabisi letter.
Speaker B:US Households have massive exposure to equities.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Massive equities now account for 32% of the total U.S. household assets, the largest percentage amongst all categories.
Speaker B:This is followed by real estate at 30% and insurance and pensions at 21.
Speaker B:By comparison, in China, real estate accounts for the majority of total assets at 55%, while equities make up only 11%.
Speaker B:In the U.K. korea and Australia, households hold 57%, 65% and 57% in property, while equities represent only 7%, 7% and 8%, respectively.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:In Taiwan and in Japan, households hold 35 and 30% of their wealth in real estate, and 12 and 24 in equities.
Speaker B:U. S. House households wealth is heavily tied to the stock market.
Speaker B:Rejeel pulled up a chart.
Speaker B:If you were listening to it, I suggest you look at this one because this one tells the real story.
Speaker B:And Rejeel, if you can double click on that bad boy, make it bigger or make it the same size on the screen.
Speaker B:It's funny, this is the chart that really caused me problems and really set things rolling here.
Speaker B:We have always said on the show that the affordability crisis was having an impact, an impact that would create wealth.
Speaker B:Because the single largest source of wealth for most Americans was the equity they built in their home.
Speaker B:Appreciation over time.
Speaker B:If you cannot buy a home, right, where do you put your money?
Speaker B:Well, Americans, particularly generations in my generation, Gen X and the millennials that followed it, put their money into the stock market.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:A stock market which has effectively seen an unprecedented rise to all time highs in gold.
Speaker B:All time highs in the stock market.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:All time highs in crypto.
Speaker B:Recently.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:They've piled their money into these assets and that is where the majority of their assets currently sit today.
Speaker B:Thank you, Rajille.
Speaker B:Very, very nice.
Speaker B:Fancy big screen.
Speaker B:So you've got 30% in in property compared to all the other countries, Taiwan being the only closest proxy.
Speaker B:And in Taiwan, they hold 24% cash, versus in the U.S. we hold about 12% in cash, but we have a 32% exposure in this equity market.
Speaker B:Okay, now follow the logic here.
Speaker B:A real estate crash is a terrible thing.
Speaker B:20.
Speaker B:A correction of 20% or more would be a crash.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:If that were to happen today, that would be bad.
Speaker B:But here's the problem.
Speaker B:Your real estate value going up or down is irrelevant to you, the consumer, because Guess what?
Speaker B:Unless you actually need to sell it, it's irrelevant.
Speaker B:It doesn't affect your worth.
Speaker B:It's not valued until such time as you need to sell it.
Speaker B:You can always look up the value on Google or Zillow or something like that.
Speaker B:You know, figure it out.
Speaker B:But your stock market value is going down.
Speaker B:That's a problem that gets changed every single day.
Speaker B:In the case of crypto.
Speaker B:Every single minute of every single day.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:In the stock market, five days a week between the hours of trading, your, your stuff will adjust and you can't sell it unless the market's open.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:So if 32% more than the, the net worth that's in the housing market is tied up in the securities market and we are at the highest, I, look, I'm just doing math here.
Speaker B:If you were at the highest possible market values we've had historically, you only have one direction to go.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker A:You're going to take a hit.
Speaker B:You're going to take a hit.
Speaker B:So if I were most Americans today, but I would be moving as much as I can in the cash to limit that exposure.
Speaker A:To limit the exposure then to.
Speaker A:Oh, really?
Speaker A:Yeah, because you take a hit.
Speaker A:But then what everyone's always been told is the stock market will always rebound and it'll always hit a brand new high.
Speaker B:Sure, sure.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So it's like the, the money that you're putting away into the stock market.
Speaker A:Assuming that you don't need it and.
Speaker B:Some people, then your horizon needs to be 10 years.
Speaker A:Your horizon.
Speaker A:Exactly my point.
Speaker B:Your horizon needs to be 10 years.
Speaker A:Unless you got multiple accounts and you have certain accounts made for like.
Speaker A:I know, so what some people do is they have accounts that they grow it so that they could buy like their next car with it.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Which is fine.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But I would say that there are compelling problems in the real estate market which are compounding this.
Speaker B:And as much as we all think about the great financial crisis as this big housing correction, that was cataclysmic.
Speaker B:And everyone's like, we can't have housing deteriorate.
Speaker B:We can't have housing deteriorate.
Speaker B:And I, I, I admit I do this too.
Speaker B:I would say the bigger concern right now is not housing.
Speaker B:I would say it's a stock market.
Speaker A:Yeah, there's, there's a huge asset bubble there.
Speaker B:Huge asset, undeniable one.
Speaker B:But let's go down the rabbit hole a little bit.
Speaker B:This is from Amy Nixon via X. I've never heard of her before, but I found this very insightful.
Speaker B:Renting is no longer just a stepping stone for young 20 somethings.
Speaker B:So we're talking about the millennials now.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:It's becoming a lifestyle.
Speaker B:More and more Americans are being priced out of or delaying home ownership until the age 35 or 40.
Speaker B:So the upper tier of millennials, the oldest millennials, are now beginning to buy.
Speaker B:But it's really my age.
Speaker B:The Gen X's that have been able to buy more consistently.
Speaker B:72% of US rental rental population is now age 30 or older, which is.
Speaker A:Wild because that was the age where people would buy their first home.
Speaker B: And if you go back to: Speaker B:Now it looks a lot bigger because the way the chart is, it starts from 65, goes to 72, but you've really gone from about 65ish percent to 72%.
Speaker B:It's been a meaningful increase in that age demographic.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:So yeah, I think that's compelling.
Speaker B:But it gets, it gets even more interesting.
Speaker B:We talked about this before on the show Stock market news via X.
Speaker B:This is a random ass account, but I found this to be an interesting chart as well because it kind of gives a different perspective on some of the same data.
Speaker B:The bottom 50% of US households have historically had little exposure to stocks.
Speaker B:But because these people prioritize buying homes, can no longer afford to buy homes.
Speaker A:They might be forced to.
Speaker A:Yeah, you're right.
Speaker B:They're forced to prioritize stocks.
Speaker B:For decades the top 10% controlled nearly all equity wealth and they still do, holding about 85 to 90% today.
Speaker B:That's good for them.
Speaker B:They can afford to take those losses.
Speaker B:What has changed that?
Speaker B:The bottom half now hold over $500 billion in equities, the most on record.
Speaker B: % surge since just: Speaker B:Massive filled by, fueled by stimulus, rising wages and the retail trading boom.
Speaker A:So do you really believe that you hear that rhetoric going around that we're going to be a country of renters?
Speaker A:You think that's the way?
Speaker B:I think that's hyperbole.
Speaker B:But I think you've got the rise of the retail trader, mobile devices, better technology and free trading fueled largely by Robinhood's democratizing the space.
Speaker B:Everybody can trade now, the rise of social media being attention media and the ability to.
Speaker B:So it used to be you followed your friends and your friends feeds would feed into your feed.
Speaker B:Now the most popular post in niches that you like are shown to you.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And because of that, if you're a trader or you like something people are going to tell you to buy this, buy that, buy here, buy there.
Speaker B:It's in your face whether you know the person or not.
Speaker B:You combine that with the unaffordability of home prices and the ease of access of entry into the stock market and it's a perfect storm.
Speaker A:And then I think if you combine it with, I think, I don't know where this ultimately ends up and how quickly we, we get there as a nation.
Speaker A:But working remote, right.
Speaker A:More and more companies accepting that reducing their office space.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And allowing employees to work remote would allow people to move two areas out of state.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:To where they could maybe afford a home otherwise.
Speaker B:That was the dream.
Speaker B:But you're losing efficiency at corporations, which if that goes too extreme, here's what I would caution you.
Speaker A:Losing.
Speaker A:You're losing some, some efficiencies.
Speaker A:But efficiency has also been up in some cases.
Speaker B:But from the data that I have seen, looking at internal non public information from companies, particularly banks in the financial sector that track things like efficiency ratios, efficiency has gone down in most places.
Speaker B:Not meaningful down in some, but certainly down.
Speaker B:And there's always going to be outliers who take advantage.
Speaker B:Right now, the same outlier argument that can be said, the people are watching Netflix from their cubicles.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:People are not working while they're at work.
Speaker B:I get it.
Speaker A:Listen to podcasts while they're working.
Speaker B:I'm not discounting that.
Speaker B:And you should be always listening to the higher standard while you're working.
Speaker A:Always.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Makes you more productive.
Speaker B:Studies show.
Speaker A:Studies, exactly.
Speaker B:Yeah, I get it.
Speaker B:I'm not disagreeing with you.
Speaker B:But there also is a certain amount of population that needs to be close to where they work.
Speaker B:And this is why there's the traffic drive into major congested downtown areas or coastal communities of people who are the working class population who work there but don't live there.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Yeah, there was that, there was that stat that we had on the show we kept citing for a while where every year they were tracking the amount of miles away people were when they were buying their homes, how far it was from their work for workplace.
Speaker A:It was around 15 miles.
Speaker A: And then I think it was in: Speaker B:Yeah, that, that, that number doesn't surprise me now because I know a lot of people who drive that, that far away.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And it's crazy to me that some of the people are driving hours to work.
Speaker A:I mean, just own a home.
Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:Hours.
Speaker A:It's like you're literally trading.
Speaker A:You know, I remember When I lived in Riverside, commuting to Irvine every day.
Speaker A:And I would have to make the conscious decision of do I pay the 20 bucks to take the fast track so I can see my boy and my girl for 30 minutes before bed?
Speaker B:God damn.
Speaker A:Or do I sit in this traffic and they get put down and I don't see them tonight?
Speaker A:Yeah, that was like a decision that would.
Speaker A:I would have.
Speaker A:And I always ended up paying.
Speaker A:I was like, if I'm thinking about it, I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna lay on my, you know, deathbed one day thinking about though, dude.
Speaker B:I mean, I'm not.
Speaker B:I would make the same decision, but I.
Speaker B:That's a hundred dollars a week easy.
Speaker B:Oh yeah, you know, yeah.
Speaker B:That's 400amonth.
Speaker B:That's a car payment.
Speaker A:That's a lot, dude.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's a lot.
Speaker B:Actually, average car payments in the 600.
Speaker A:Range, 6 to 700 now for a new car.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:It's crazy.
Speaker B:What is this for?
Speaker B:Jill, what are we looking at?
Speaker A:Graph tracking miles away.
Speaker A:People buy homes from work.
Speaker A:A dramatic post pandemic surge.
Speaker A: Between: Speaker A:And then there's super commuters that are even 50 miles, some even 75 miles.
Speaker A:Geez, man, I'm at 350 miles.
Speaker B:Oh yeah, that's right.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But you don't go over it every day though.
Speaker B:Yeah, thank God for that.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So I want to go down this path a little bit longer, so bear with us.
Speaker B:It's gonna be a little bit longer of a show, not nothing crazy long.
Speaker B:But I want to finish off this because I think there's some meaningful information here at the end, particularly around what this means for rentals and the housing community.
Speaker B:The wealth concentration is continuing to be a problem, but it doesn't mean that more households than ever before have a stake in the.
Speaker B:This creates a new vulnerability that people don't really realize.
Speaker B:And the bottom 50% often lack the buffers that the wealthier generation has.
Speaker B:The wealthier demographic has.
Speaker B:These investors rely on diversified portfolios, liquid assets, multiple streams of income.
Speaker B:They have assets they can sell in a worst case event scenario.
Speaker B:They lose some money in the stock market.
Speaker B:It might not be the end of end of the world for them.
Speaker B:They also have real estate.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So because of this, if equity stumble, the impact on consumption, debt repayment and household confidence could be a lot different now.
Speaker B:Not so much wealth in real estate, much more wealth in the stock market.
Speaker B:And that changes much more quickly.
Speaker B:So the top 10% still dominate.
Speaker B:The record exposure for the bottom half is both progress and a warning.
Speaker B:More Americans are finally at the table for the stock market, which should make people happy, but at the cost of what?
Speaker B:The cost of owning real estate.
Speaker B:Yeah, but they are also far more exposed to Wall street swings, which is not something that I think most people have seen.
Speaker B:And this chart is a great example of it.
Speaker B: household net worths from the: Speaker B:It has gone straight up.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Hockey stick.
Speaker B:With the only dip being really kind of the pandemic based recessionary economy.
Speaker B:And even that was somewhat artificial.
Speaker B:So what I'll say to that is people need to understand that the idea that lower earning or lower net worth Americans get in the stock market is great.
Speaker B:You want people to be diversified, but not when they're sacrificing everything else to do it.
Speaker B:And people are saying, well, Chris, hey man, if people are owning more stock, they still have assets, they still have income coming in the form of jobs like they should be.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Maybe we don't know.
Speaker B:But what I do know is the market is at an all time high.
Speaker B:That's just what I know.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:And yeah, over time it tends to go up.
Speaker B:But look at the volatility in every single market.
Speaker B:Real estate market, you know, stock market.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker A:No, it still needs to be diversified.
Speaker A:I, I know that just speaking to relatives of mine that don't own homes that are younger and would like, or I would think would like to own a home, as they begin to start a family, they are getting more and more comfortable with.
Speaker A:I'm hearing rhetoric of, with things like, like what does it cost to keep up a home?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know, and it's like, well, it's like I, I'm building the equity, but that extra money that I'd be spending on, you know, keeping up a home, I could be investing and I can be growing my money there.
Speaker A:And I get it.
Speaker B:Logical things to talk about, you know.
Speaker A:And it's like, so it's like really?
Speaker A:Are they.
Speaker A:And the other, the other part that they talk about is the level of appreciation that we experienced in the last five years.
Speaker A:When is the next time we're going to see something like that?
Speaker B:You don't know?
Speaker A:I don't know if at all.
Speaker B:It could be the next five years.
Speaker A:I mean, that would be.
Speaker A:Why.
Speaker A:The only way I see that happening is if we get 40 year mortgages.
Speaker B:We might.
Speaker B:I mean, look, there's certainly.
Speaker B:Well.
Speaker B:Or you get like hyper low rates and people jump back in.
Speaker A:Not getting hyper low rates.
Speaker B:Come on.
Speaker B:Well, let me explain.
Speaker A:But then we say the treasury, the Treasuries aren't going down.
Speaker B:I don't see that happening now.
Speaker B:But I also see that there's going to be a lot of interference.
Speaker B:This government shutdown is not an accident.
Speaker B:It's political.
Speaker B:Everything is effectively political now, unfortunately.
Speaker B:You know, there was a narrative that was going around a while back about how institutional investors had come into the real estate market and bought up all the real estate.
Speaker A:And we found out that it was really only about 1%.
Speaker B:Yeah, we tried to prove that out.
Speaker B:We looked for data, we went down the whole path, done several shows on it where we talked about it in certain topics.
Speaker B:And to be honest with you, that rhetoric is still everywhere in social media.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Oh, this is, it's blackrock and Blackstone and this and that.
Speaker B:And you're just like.
Speaker A:So it's not so easy to just point pinning on them.
Speaker A:But do you see that, that I only see that number going up over the long term, though.
Speaker B:Well, I found out why today.
Speaker A:Find out why what?
Speaker B:Why that number has been going up slowly over the long term.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:And it's so logical and in your face that I'm an idiot for not seeing it sooner.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:There was an article that came out five days ago from the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker B:I'll put the link in the show notes the rise of the accidental landlord.
Speaker B:It's bad news for investors who bet big on rentals.
Speaker B:Well, I don't necessarily know that to be the case, but the argument in this kind of spun that that rental rates are going down as a result of it.
Speaker B:But I focused more on who's owning the real estate and what they're doing with it.
Speaker B:And it was such an obvious answer that I just overlooked it.
Speaker B:Big corporate landlords have unwelcome new competition.
Speaker B:Regular homeowners who can't sell their properties are renting them out instead or they don't want to sell their property with a super low interest rate.
Speaker A:Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:And the growing number of accidental landlords is a headache for the pros.
Speaker B:Rents in the top 20 US markets for single family homes are expected to rise 0.8% this year, according to John Burns Real Estate and Consulting.
Speaker B: uld be the slowest pace since: Speaker B:Of the 3.06 million properties listed at the start of the summer, only 28% sold.
Speaker B:Based on data from housing analytics firm Parcel labs.
Speaker B:That leaves 1.96 million homes left on the market going into the fall, a fifth higher than this time last year.
Speaker B:And yet you're hearing news and seeing headlines like talked about on episode 302 of the Market being incredibly healthy.
Speaker B:That sounds healthy.
Speaker A:It's so unpredictable because I have a house down the street from, from our house that's been on the market for well over two months, and I have a house in my cul de sac that got listed for sale and went under contract within a week.
Speaker B:Yeah, but that, that's the kind of volatility you see.
Speaker A:It's like, what is it?
Speaker A:Which, which one is it?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Doesn't surprise me.
Speaker B:And realistic sellers, they're gonna do that.
Speaker B:They're gonna do what realistic sellers do.
Speaker B:They cut the price.
Speaker B:That's what.
Speaker B:That's what comes next.
Speaker B:Others are either delisting their properties to wait for the market conditions to improve or becoming accidental landlords.
Speaker B:2.3% of the homes that were listed for sale this summer ultimately switched to rentals.
Speaker B:The share is higher in certain Sunbelt cities where the conversations to rentals topped a conversion to rentals top 5%.
Speaker B:Rajeel, if you could pull up the in the show notes rental growth single family homes chart.
Speaker B:This is actually pretty fascinating.
Speaker B:There was a pretty crazy cadence of rental increases going through.
Speaker B: Call it: Speaker B:And then it came crumbling back down.
Speaker B:Now this is the pace of rent growth.
Speaker B:So this is still net rent growth.
Speaker B:Yeah, it's not increasing as fast.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:This is still.
Speaker A:It's still growing.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:So it's still going up, but it's certainly a meaningful change in the markets.
Speaker B:So this set me down a pretty interesting path that I'm going to end on here with Nick Gurley.
Speaker B: ,: Speaker B:There will be more 6% mortgages than sub 3% mortgages.
Speaker B:I'm going to say this again.
Speaker B:This is really interesting.
Speaker B:In the chart that Jill's going to pull up here tells a story.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B: of: Speaker B:So all of that artificial interest rate deflation that we had for 14 years, those years and years and years of sub 3% rates, sub 4% rates.
Speaker B:We are now creeping back up to the point where the inflection point is hit and that mortgage lock in effect is going to start dwindling down.
Speaker A:Yeah, but sub 3%, I mean, you look, if you were in, if you were living during that time, you should have locked that in if you could have.
Speaker A:But there's still a good healthy portion of people that are, you know, at 3% or higher and, and, you know what I mean, that are not willing to budge yet.
Speaker A:I do wonder what rate it's going to take for them to, you know, decide to list their properties and look into, you know, getting a new home.
Speaker B:I don't think it's right.
Speaker A:You don't think it's lock in effect?
Speaker B:I don't think that's, that's going to be the deciding factor.
Speaker B:I think incomes going down or staying stagnant while inflation rises is going to be the determining factor.
Speaker B:People, people are going to get to the point where they're saying, I need to have more cash flow.
Speaker B:Where do I get it from?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah, I agree.
Speaker A:You're right.
Speaker A:I, that I feel like now more than ever in my adult life, people are more uncertain with what's around the corner and I think it's scaring a lot of people.
Speaker B:So parse that through from where we started the show to where we are right now.
Speaker B:I agree with you.
Speaker B:I completely feel that way.
Speaker B:I think the 10 year is showing more confidence in the long term than you're seeing in the near term, which is why you're seeing Treasuries rise.
Speaker B:That all being said, you got massive hedge funds betting against the vix, the volatility index, the fear gauge.
Speaker B:Why are massive hedge funds betting against that to hedge their risk?
Speaker A:I think it's what we know we're getting to.
Speaker A:We're getting to a point where there's genuine fear that the US is, cannot no longer pay their debts.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:And we have a government shutdown started tonight.
Speaker A:Started tonight.
Speaker A:The yields.
Speaker A:4 minutes and 33 seconds.
Speaker B:30.
Speaker B:30 minutes or 30 minutes and 40?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:And, and the yields on those Treasuries aren't enough to attract new investors.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So there's only one way to go to attract new investors to get higher yields.
Speaker A:That's why I think, that's what I think they're betting on because the government absolutely needs to refinance that debt to make their payments.
Speaker B: f all this that leads us to a: Speaker A:I hope not, dude.
Speaker B:I spent a lot of time studying the Great Depression and in some ways it was as bad as people think.
Speaker B:I'm not downplaying the severity of it, but in other ways, if you were living through it, it felt like that was just the era.
Speaker B:I had a conversation the other day with somebody, it was a really interesting conversation, and he was telling me that he's planning to scale his company from an employee perspective.
Speaker B:An FTE perspective.
Speaker B:Full time employee.
Speaker A:Full time employee, yeah.
Speaker B:And he was like, my company is currently at 25,000 employees.
Speaker B:Big ass company.
Speaker B:And he goes, I want to find a way to in the next 10 years, get to 50,000 full time employees for him.
Speaker B:His revenue model is based on the number of employees.
Speaker B:And I said, okay, well, I mean, that can be done.
Speaker B:And he's like, but.
Speaker B:And I said, what?
Speaker B:He's like, I want to do it with 5,000 physical employees and the rest of them are bots.
Speaker B:I'm like, what do you mean, like bots?
Speaker B:He's like, I want AI driven technology to be 45,000 of those employees.
Speaker B:And I stopped to think about it and I'm like, so really what you're talking about is reducing down by 80%.
Speaker A:He's not talking, he's not talking about paying that much more.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:He's thinking that it's more cost effective.
Speaker B:He's talking, yeah.
Speaker B:Not only is it more cost effective, but his longer term vision has the capability of handling what 50,000 employees would be able to handle with only 5,000 real human employees.
Speaker B:So he's talking about really doubling up everything that he's doing with 80% less workforce.
Speaker B:Wow, that's wild.
Speaker B:Yeah, but if you have the understanding of technology, the guts to do it, I should probably back this up.
Speaker B:It starts with data, Right.
Speaker B:If you're in any business today and you don't have a data warehouse functioning today that aggregates your data and gives you a clean data set, then this conversation's off the table right out the gate.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Step two, assuming you have the data and you have it accessible, you have to have models that are tailored to your business.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And these models have to be trained over time the same way that AI is learning from us with ChatGPT, you need to have an AI model built for whatever business that you're in.
Speaker B:And you need to be training it today.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:For implementation, like a year from now.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:And some of these, depending on the business, depending on the complexity of the model, can go faster or slower.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Data model, then you need to have a culture of commitment to that.
Speaker B:And that's where I go, okay.
Speaker A:And you got to get buy in from, you know, whoever, you know, whatever your market is.
Speaker B:But here's where this gets interesting.
Speaker B:Knowing that this is the logical progression, that third step is buy in not only from your board and from your stakeholders and your shareholders, but from your employees who are going to implement it.
Speaker B:This is where I look at AI and I'll use Sam Altman and ChatGPT because it's probably the most visible to most people listening.
Speaker B:It's almost like cult, like, right.
Speaker B:They all buy into like, this is revolutionary.
Speaker B:It's going to change the world.
Speaker B:Not everybody wants to change the world, my guy.
Speaker B:Not everybody wants to work 16 hours a day.
Speaker B:Not everybody wants to, to, to, to work themselves out of a job or also, yeah.
Speaker A:Implement something that's gonna kick somebody else out of a job.
Speaker B:And we naively here, and I'll be the first to admit, you know, we talk about this, and I've said this on prior shows, if you can prompt AI, that's the new skill set prompting.
Speaker B:And I'm like, but at some point in time, if these conversations are already happening today and people already have data and they already have models they're training up, the next step is adoption.
Speaker B:And once they start adopting, people start going from the workforce, Right?
Speaker A:Yep.
Speaker B:But here's the fucked up part about tonight.
Speaker B:The people who leave the workforce aren't the 60 year old CEOs.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:They're the ones that they keep in place to be the old venerable experience wisdom at the, the top.
Speaker B:And it's the younger generation demographic that gets the short end of the stick here.
Speaker A:Millennials getting screwed again.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's right.
Speaker B:It's exactly how this plays out.
Speaker B:And the irony is that the people creating the technology are largely millennials and Gen X.
Speaker A:That's the irony.
Speaker B:And it's their people, their generation, their peers that are going to be impacted the most by it.
Speaker A:Wild, man.
Speaker B:That was a really ominous ending.
Speaker B:I know, wild.
Speaker B:But that, that was kind of like the mental process that I went through in this whole thing.
Speaker B:And the stock market, the, the real estate exposure, the, the job exposure and how this all plays out.
Speaker B:There is truly amount of a solid amount of gatekeeping that's happening here.
Speaker B:But I'll leave everybody with one positive note and I truly believe this.
Speaker B:Anyone can do anyone else's job if given enough opportunity and motivation.
Speaker A:That's.
Speaker A:Truly believe that it's opportunity though.
Speaker A:The opportunity needs to be given to you.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And you also have to be the type of person.
Speaker A:Look, we've talked about it before on the show.
Speaker A:You've talked about your own experience that luck is the.
Speaker A:Is what?
Speaker A:Opportunity, meeting, preparation, combination.
Speaker B:Preparation.
Speaker B:Opportunity.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So, yeah, you got to get that opportunity, but you got to be prepared for the opportunity and you have to seek said opportunity.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Yeah, a little bit too.
Speaker B:But my fear is, is that like.
Speaker A:Closed mouths don't get fed.
Speaker B:They don't.
Speaker B:And I'll be the first to admit that I had a very open mouth and big hand out looking for shillings.
Speaker B:I certainly drove a lot of my career growth with persistence and I don't regret that.
Speaker B:But I worked my ass off to, to do things, to create those opportunities, to create that luck.
Speaker B:I worked those 16 hour days, I fell asleep at my desk more than once.
Speaker B:I wore a suit every single day.
Speaker B:And people really feel that I'm lucky.
Speaker B:And it's like, no, I'm not.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Would I do it all over again?
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker B:I don't think so.
Speaker A:I mean, look, it's afforded you this opportunity now.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And it has.
Speaker B:And I'm not.
Speaker A:And look, you've been enlightened because of said opportunity.
Speaker B:I mean, enlightenment's an interesting thing.
Speaker B:I probably would have.
Speaker B:It's so easy as you get into work to have progressive load in your career.
Speaker B:The things you put up with, the things you're willing to accept, the things you're willing to do.
Speaker B:You know how it is.
Speaker B:The things you can do now as a dad.
Speaker A:Oh yeah.
Speaker B:With your, your work life, your, your married life, your.
Speaker B:Your dad life.
Speaker B:All these external like time constraints and limitations.
Speaker B:You look back on when you were younger and you go, I had so much free time.
Speaker A:Oh my God.
Speaker A:I tell this to people all the time.
Speaker A:People that complain about not having time, I'm like, wait till you have a kid.
Speaker A:And then they complain about not having time when they had one kid.
Speaker A:I'm like, bro, when I had my second kid, I realized how much free time I had when I had one kid.
Speaker A:You know, it's like, it's, it's all relative, right?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I'm not trying to say one person like has a harder than the others, just.
Speaker A:But it's all relative.
Speaker A:And you don't know until you no longer have that time.
Speaker B:And careers are the same.
Speaker B:Everybody wants to be the CEO until they're the CEO.
Speaker B:And then you look back and you go, fuck, I had so much more time.
Speaker B:And then you go, okay, look, I know what the Internet Says supposedly balling out, rolling around in my, you know, exotic car, taking trips on trips, taking trips on trips, on trips.
Speaker B:But those are counterintuitive thoughts.
Speaker B:In order to pay for the exotic car and take the trips, you need to work.
Speaker B:Work.
Speaker B:Everybody tells you they can happen in five hours a day, but can it really?
Speaker B:Not in corporate America.
Speaker A:I mean, there's always Airbnb arbitrage.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Whatever happened to those guys?
Speaker A:Come on.
Speaker B:I called so many of them out so hard.
Speaker A:Early.
Speaker B:Yeah, early.
Speaker B:And I haven't seen a single damn one of them pop in my food, my feed.
Speaker B:Maybe it's my algorithm.
Speaker A:Yeah, they're like, this guy is bad for business.
Speaker B:Yeah, I gotta.
Speaker B:I gotta go back to my stories and just start calling all these guys out.
Speaker B:Hey, man.
Speaker B:What's up, bro?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:How you doing?
Speaker B:Yeah, Called him out.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Brazil.
Speaker B:You've been quiet tonight.
Speaker B:You feeling okay?
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, I'm feeling good.
Speaker B:Wait, check me.
Speaker B:215.
Speaker A:213.8.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Let's go.
Speaker A:And he's enjoying himself some meals, too.
Speaker A:How's the.
Speaker A:The coffee page?
Speaker A:Coffee page is good, man.
Speaker A:It's getting a little too caffeinated, though.
Speaker A:Yeah, there's no such thing as too caffeinated.
Speaker A:Yesterday I had one, I was just, like, on.
Speaker A:You're just wired.
Speaker A:Yeah, I was wired.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:That Vietnamese coffee coffee that, you know, monkeys poop.
Speaker A:I had that in Bali.
Speaker A:It was good.
Speaker B:Yeah, I've had it, too.
Speaker B:And I've had.
Speaker B:In Vietnam.
Speaker A:Is this a real thing?
Speaker A:What are you talking about?
Speaker B:Yeah, it's not a monkey.
Speaker B:It's like a.
Speaker B:It's like a.
Speaker A:A lemur or something.
Speaker A:Something.
Speaker B:Basically, they.
Speaker B:They eat it.
Speaker B:It's got super high caffeine because something about the way the.
Speaker B:The animal metabolizes it and then poops it out makes it stronger coffee.
Speaker B:And I've had said, why poop coffee?
Speaker A:Why, why, why?
Speaker A:Why did you need to try that coffee?
Speaker B:I mean, it's not like I'm eating poop.
Speaker B:They clean it.
Speaker A:They clean it.
Speaker A:Yeah, Chris, I'll clean my poop for you, too.
Speaker B:Not the poop.
Speaker B:You have to eat the beans first, and then I'll peg you and get them out.
Speaker A:Come on, man.
Speaker A:All too much, man.
Speaker A:It's called the kopi luwak.
Speaker B:Kopi luwak.
Speaker A:I feel like you still mispronounced it.
Speaker B:Is it the animal or the bean?
Speaker A:See, it's a coffee made from coffee, cherries that have been eaten and then excreted by an Asian palm civet.
Speaker A:I'm out, bro.
Speaker A:Well, why?
Speaker B:It's really good.
Speaker B:It was arguably some of the best coffee I've ever had in my entire life.
Speaker A:Ah, don't be that guy.
Speaker B:I had it in.
Speaker B:Ho.
Speaker A:Don't be that guy, bro.
Speaker B:I'll say this right now.
Speaker B:I was wired afterwards.
Speaker A:Yeah, I bet you I was flying.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's.
Speaker A:Your body's going into fight orf flight mode, bro.
Speaker B:That's.
Speaker A:That's what that is.
Speaker B:My body was ready to go, and then I went to the Vietnam War Museum afterward.
Speaker B:God, that was a bad idea.
Speaker B:Talk about depressing.
Speaker A:You're like, why?
Speaker B:You're, like, going, I'm so wired and so happy going into it.
Speaker B:And then, like, the.
Speaker B:The problem is when you go into it, you don't.
Speaker B:You don't realize unless you've been to something like this before.
Speaker B:And I had.
Speaker B:That was my first time seeing the opposite side of the political spin of things you were taught at school.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:And it was just like, damn, we did this to people.
Speaker B:And it was just.
Speaker B:I was.
Speaker B:I was so high from the caffeine and so, like, amped.
Speaker B:It was a bad look.
Speaker B:Yeah, it was a bad look.
Speaker A:That's all right, man.
Speaker A:Well, good for you.
Speaker A:I guess you're a better man than me.
Speaker B:I'll get you some of that coffee.
Speaker A:I'm good, bro.
Speaker A:I'm Gucci in the U.S. no, I'm good.
Speaker A:I'm Gucci.
Speaker B:You wouldn't even know that it went.
Speaker A:I just have my.
Speaker A:My Stumptown coffee beans and I'm good.
Speaker B:Black rifle coffee.
Speaker A:No, Stumptown.
Speaker A:It.
Speaker A:You haven't had that before.
Speaker A:Best I. I drink black rifle.
Speaker A:Black rifle.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Rogan.
Speaker B:That's right, actually.
Speaker A:Okay, Job.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Only if they sponsor this.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Or ghost or C4 element.
Speaker A:I swear to you, whoever decides to sponsor, I'll drink it every episode.
Speaker A:Get us.
Speaker A:Get him a sponsor.
Speaker A:I'll drink the coffee.
Speaker B:Really?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Give him a sponsor.
Speaker A:I'll do it.
Speaker B:Brigitte, we have a mission with a shirt off.
Speaker A:I'll do it.
Speaker B:Is your coffee eaten by an animal and pooped out?
Speaker B:Because we need you to sponsor.
Speaker A:I'm.
Speaker A:I'm on the financial.
Speaker A:Yeah, C4 again.
Speaker A:Whatever.
Speaker A:Whatever the case may be, this show.
Speaker B:Is brought to you by pegging.
Speaker B:And I'm out.
Speaker B:All right, good night, everybody.
