Housing Market Reality Check: New Home Sales Hype & Buffett Indicator Warning
The headlines are screaming “Housing Boom,” but we’re here to ask—boom for who? In episode 302 of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied cut through the CNBC hype, breaking down why those shiny new home sales numbers don’t tell the whole story. Spoiler: it’s not buyers suddenly feeling rich, it’s builders slashing prices and handing out incentives like Halloween candy. From Lennar’s margins getting crushed, to the wild affordability math that shows just how far we’ve drifted from reality, the housing market isn’t booming—it’s bargaining.
➡️ But housing isn’t the only thing flashing red. Powell’s latest speech, a youth unemployment spike that should terrify policymakers, and the Buffett Indicator screaming “overvalued” louder than ever, all collide in one jam-packed week of economic chaos. Add in a record-breaking concentration of power in the Magnificent 7 stocks, and you’ve got a market that looks more like Vegas than Wall Street. No fluff, no sugarcoating—just the unfiltered breakdown you’ve come to expect from The Higher Standard.
💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?
📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv
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🔗 Resources:
New home sales soar 20% in August to a three-year high (CNBC)
2024 Fannie Mae home price affordability (Lance Lambert via X)
Lennar’s gross margin on home sales (Lance Lambert via X )
Lennar is showing you what has to happen in the housing market to drive sales (Nick Gerli via X)
The two largest residential real estate brokerage are combining (Lance Lambert via X)
Shocking stat of the day (The Kobeissi Letter via X)
Buffett Indicator (Current Market Valuation)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.
Transcript
Double fisting tonight.
Speaker A:Look at you.
Speaker B:You out here giving me two drinks.
Speaker B:You're an enabler.
Speaker B:You're an enabler.
Speaker A:I know you're into fishing.
Speaker B:We're gonna cut the show early tonight because I'm clearly gonna have to pee in about five minutes.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:Between the sodium, potassium, the ghost energy drink.
Speaker B:I'm just trying to get a sponsor from somebody out here.
Speaker A:Somebody, anybody, you know.
Speaker A:Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.
Speaker A:This is the higher standard.
Speaker A:Sitting in front of me is my partner in crime, Christopher Nahibi, Hydrated as a. Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Coming in hot today with.
Speaker A:Let's go.
Speaker B:Earning that parental discretion advisory.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker B:C Crosh me.
Speaker B:My partner in time.
Speaker B:Also known as the liquid saboteur, the man, the myth, the legend Sideomo, everybody.
Speaker A:Thank you, my man.
Speaker A:And sitting behind the ones and twos in the production suite, if you will, the Fijian himself, Rajil.
Speaker A:What's up, my guy?
Speaker A:What's up, everyone?
Speaker A:How y' all doing?
Speaker A:You had to take some Tylenol before the show and Excedrin and etc.
Speaker B:And caffeine.
Speaker A:Yes, that's a great.
Speaker B:We don't talk about this enough on the show.
Speaker B:He suffers from migraines.
Speaker B:Oh, like chronic migraines?
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker A:There was a.
Speaker A:There was something that went viral recently on a migraine.
Speaker A:Like hack.
Speaker A:Like it was a McDonald's.
Speaker A:Order a Coke and french fries.
Speaker B:Stop right there.
Speaker B:Nothing you.
Speaker B:Nothing you say afterwards.
Speaker A:It's really just sugar and salt.
Speaker A:Essentially.
Speaker A:That's what is supposed to cure a migraine.
Speaker B:Is there?
Speaker B:They don't have like a biological reason rejeel of why that happens for you?
Speaker A:No, I have no clue.
Speaker A:Lack of sleep?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:Probably like stress induced.
Speaker A:Too much screen.
Speaker A:Yeah, a little bit of stress.
Speaker B:So the reason why I bring it up, ironically, levels are high.
Speaker B:So that's how much he loves us.
Speaker B:He's literally looking at three massive ass screens, light shining about three feet from his face.
Speaker B:Maybe two.
Speaker A:He's willing to do whatever it takes to make the show happen.
Speaker A:What are you willing to do for the show?
Speaker B:Like subscribe, follow, tell your friends about it.
Speaker B:Watch the live streams.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker A:Share with a friend honestly.
Speaker A:And buy the merchandise.
Speaker A:Buy the merch.
Speaker A:Free advertisement for us, please.
Speaker A:We don't make a dollar off it, but I mean, give us some free 50 cents.
Speaker A:50 cents.
Speaker A:Okay, 50 cents.
Speaker B:It's hard working.
Speaker B:50 cents.
Speaker A:We got a dollar out of 15 cents or 50 cents.
Speaker A:We gotta go.
Speaker A:We got a somewhat of like an older episode.
Speaker A:We're gonna dive into some economic Data.
Speaker A:We're gonna dive into some reports that are coming out this week and explain why they're important and why you should be tuning in and paying attention.
Speaker A:We're gonna go into all the things that will be coming out, some that have already come out this week and the rest that'll be coming out later in the week.
Speaker A:And we'll give you a little bit of nuance too.
Speaker B:So we were recording this on Wednesday, September 24th, so we were midweek.
Speaker B:Some of the data started to come out this week that we knew was going to be impactful.
Speaker B:If you've been following our socials, you've seen the comic themed highlights of the important dates, but there were a few that we intentionally left off because we didn't think they were as relevant.
Speaker B:But certainly all that information is coming out.
Speaker B:So in no particular order, the things that we thought were important for this week's economic events.
Speaker B:FOMC Mirin's speech was on Monday.
Speaker B:Mirren, for those of you who are not up to date, was the FOMC member named by Trump and has been the biggest dissenter on the FOMC wanting all the rate cuts.
Speaker A:Yeah, not dissenting because they did a rate cut.
Speaker A:He actually wanted a 50 basis point rate cut and much more for the remainder.
Speaker B:Nine.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, he wanted like nine.
Speaker B:I mean, so if you see like an outlier and a dot plot or someone saying like this person wildly disagrees, that's married.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:Now you know, then on Tuesday, yesterday, services manufacturing PMI data.
Speaker B:Nothing really sensational there.
Speaker B:But what was sensational on Tuesday was Fed Chair Powell came out giving a speech.
Speaker B:And I'm not going to say that he's full of shit.
Speaker B:That would be rude and inappropriate.
Speaker A:That's a little insensitive, Christopher.
Speaker B:But he was really discounting the impact of AI on jobs.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:And I'm like, okay, you look, let's just.
Speaker B:I don't want to be ageist, Okay.
Speaker B:I want everybody in the room and everybody listening at home to know that I like everybody regardless of their age.
Speaker A:Okay?
Speaker B:Comma, let's get comma.
Speaker A:But.
Speaker B:But if I had to ask somebody who happened to be, let's just say in the room with the three of us right now, okay?
Speaker B:One was Saeed Omar.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:One was Rajeel, one's Big Chris.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:And the other one's Jerome Powell.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:He's probably not the guy whose opinion on AI I would take.
Speaker A:Right, Exactly.
Speaker A:I wouldn't.
Speaker B:I don't think he uses AI.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:He used the vowels.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:He knows.
Speaker A:He, he definitely knows that it's.
Speaker A:It's inflated asset values in the stock market.
Speaker A:He has said that asset values in the stock market do seem elevated.
Speaker A:So he does recognize it there.
Speaker A:But I wouldn't necessarily say he understands the role and the impact it'll have on jobs.
Speaker B:I just don't know why, like, any, I get how people go, like, hey, does this influence the jobs numbers?
Speaker B:And jobs is one of their mandates.
Speaker B:So I see how you get to that question, but if I really wanted the answer to that, I'd probably ask, I don't know, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, you know, maybe somebody who's got a little bit more of a technological background.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And then keep in mind, just two years ago, AI was rolling out as a learning language model.
Speaker B:It wasn't, it didn't have, like, mass, mass adoption.
Speaker B:It was cool.
Speaker B:Now we're getting images created out of it, videos created out of it.
Speaker B:Do you think Jerome Powell knows how deep this is going?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And the effects?
Speaker B:I don't think so.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I don't think so.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So he made some comments that I took issue with, but that's not for this show.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:That's for a live stream later on where we're going to recap that bad boy.
Speaker A:We're going to start doing these a little bit more frequently.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I want to try to get at least one in a week.
Speaker B:If something meaningful happened, I don't want to waste it, you know?
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Like, I don't want to, you know, everybody go to the show, be like, oh, that wasn't meaningful.
Speaker B:I didn't like it that much.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:But, you know, ironically, so the first one we did, it would be cool.
Speaker A:If we did it like before the show sometimes.
Speaker B:Like today.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:No, like, no, like, literally with both of us here right before the show, just kind of talk about what, what it is we'll be covering and it'll be dropping the following week.
Speaker B:So actually, you didn't know this and Rajeel, you didn't either, but I thought about for tonight.
Speaker B:So tonight's show, I did some chart work on the, on the live stream that we're probably not going to go into the detail with today on this show, but I intentionally had some crossover where that 20 minute livestream was essentially the first, you know, kind of 20 minutes of this show and maybe probably the first 10 or 15 minutes or so.
Speaker B:But I was going to do it, record it, live stream the actual podcast, stream that.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And then cut that off and then tell Everybody, if you want to see more, see the podcast.
Speaker B:And we could literally do it all at the same time.
Speaker B:And there, I mean, it's seamless.
Speaker B:You can stream and record at the same time because we record in body, in the camera.
Speaker A:Ah, brilliant.
Speaker B:So easily, easily could have been done, but I was like, you know what?
Speaker B:Baby steps here.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:As much as Jerome Powell can't talk about AI, we are.
Speaker A:We can have it up on the screen here to read the comments.
Speaker B:Yeah, we can do all that.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Well, although it's a little weird because I have a stream key on YouTube, so I've got to work on some API, build out stuff to, to get the stream.
Speaker A:I guess we could see here on our phone.
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker B:See, now you're talking technology.
Speaker B:We're lazy.
Speaker B:Yeah, so.
Speaker B:But the biggest news of this week so far came in the new home sales data that came out today.
Speaker B:And I gotta tell you, I lost my fucking mind when this came out.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Why?
Speaker B:I'm sitting at home, I'm on the computer, right?
Speaker B:It's early in the morning and you know, I'm banging away and I'm like, oh, yeah, that comes out today.
Speaker B:So I go about my day, go to the gym, I'm planning to get my truck, which wasn't ready today.
Speaker B:Whole different story.
Speaker B:I get to the office, bang out some work.
Speaker B:I'm sitting here, it's maybe 10, 10 30ish.
Speaker B:Bing, bing alert comes through my phone.
Speaker B:I'm hoping it's the new iPhone 17 Pro Max at the door.
Speaker B:It's not.
Speaker B:It's this article from CNBC.
Speaker B:New home sales soar 20% in August to a three year high.
Speaker B:Now look, I'm an asshole, okay?
Speaker B:I know that.
Speaker A:Yeah, so do you know that, do you?
Speaker A:I've been trying to get you to understand.
Speaker A:No, no, no, Sorry.
Speaker B:Rejeel, can you back me up here?
Speaker A:No, no, I look in the good in everyone.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:What did you say?
Speaker A:I see the good in everyone.
Speaker A:See the good in everyone.
Speaker B:Man, that isn't reassuring.
Speaker A:Yeah, you have some good in you.
Speaker B:I heard that, right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Anyway, unbeknownst to the world and the media and all the listeners of the show, I had actually planned a show that was going to give counterpoints to this before I knew this was going to be the headline.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, okay.
Speaker B:Because I knew that the new home sales data was already going to come out somewhat wrong because of some things that I had seen in.
Speaker B:In an earlier report.
Speaker B:Last Friday, Lennar reported their earnings right And I amongst others went down and did a deep dive on those earnings because I thought that would be foreshadowing into the new home sales data.
Speaker B:Lennar, one of the largest home builders and one of the two largest home builders that contribute 25% of the new homes in the market.
Speaker B:Them in, Dr. Horton.
Speaker B:Yeah, so it was a meaningful report last Friday, which is why I went through it.
Speaker B:So I had already planned to refute, I guess this headline without seeing the headline.
Speaker B:But what pissed me off were the three bullet points below and say if.
Speaker A:You can be honored.
Speaker A:So first one we got here.
Speaker A:Sales of newly built homes rose a much larger than expected 20.5% in August compared with July according to the u. S. Census.
Speaker A:Yeah, B.S.
Speaker B:Right, the Bureau of B.S.
Speaker A:Yeah, the Bureau of.
Speaker A:Yes, that's despite mortgage rates that are higher than they are today.
Speaker A:The median price of a new home sold in August was $413,500.
Speaker B:No, it wasn't.
Speaker A:Yeah, no it wasn't.
Speaker B:That is a lie.
Speaker A:An increase of 1.9% year over year.
Speaker A:So generally speaking, why does this report even matter to people?
Speaker A:A new new home sales report.
Speaker B:So to be clear, this is new home sales.
Speaker B:These are new builds being delivered to the market.
Speaker B:These are not existing home sales.
Speaker B:That report will come out tomorrow along with Q2 GDP.
Speaker B:That's tomorrow, Thursday, September 25th.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:I do believe the existing home sales will be a more indicative of the buying and selling on the market that we're seeing.
Speaker B:This one is skewed for reasons we'll get into shortly.
Speaker B:This, this amongst the.
Speaker B:The existing home sales basically tells the inventory tale of housing inventory to the markets.
Speaker B:And inventory this month went from about a nine month existing inventory in the market down about 7.4.
Speaker B:Which you and I both know is still a healthy amount of inventory above six, six months.
Speaker B:Right, Right.
Speaker B:So that's a healthy amount of inventory in the market.
Speaker B:It basically is telling the market what appetite for demand for new homes is.
Speaker B:And that's supposed to be a proxy for the bigger home buying appeal.
Speaker B:Although I will say for the first time in history that I'm aware of, existing homes are now harder to get than new homes.
Speaker A:Okay, Right.
Speaker B:So think that through.
Speaker B:What, what other than the luxury car market where you might have a vintage automobile, where is it normal for you to find stuff that's existing out there in the world that's more expensive than the new?
Speaker B:New, Right, Exactly.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Nowhere else.
Speaker A:I mean they can get really fancy and creative.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So builders like Lennar, Dr. Horton, or even what's the third one.
Speaker A:Toll Brothers.
Speaker A:Toll Brothers.
Speaker B:They top three.
Speaker B:Good job.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:I knew Lennar and Dr. Horton, but they.
Speaker A:They can get really fancy and get creative with their financing options.
Speaker A:I know they.
Speaker A:I think Lennar and Dr. Horton have their own financing arms.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:So they can do.
Speaker A:Yeah, they.
Speaker A:So they can offer these.
Speaker A:These incentives, right.
Speaker A:To kind of skew.
Speaker A:Skew the numbers and get people to come in.
Speaker A:So, like, they'll offer mortgage raid buy downs permanently for the life of the loan or just short term.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:They can offer upgrades, things like that, or add.
Speaker A:You know, give you money towards your closing costs to.
Speaker A:To sweeten the deal.
Speaker B:So what you're saying is they can be.
Speaker A:They can.
Speaker B:They can be.
Speaker A:Yeah, they can.
Speaker A:They can flirt a little bit.
Speaker B:Rail you this might be past your age demographic.
Speaker B:So I want to make sure that we're on the same page here.
Speaker B:Do you ever watch P.B.
Speaker B:herman's Playhouse?
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:So, you know, there's a word, a leak.
Speaker A:You admit to watching Peewee Herman before he got canceled.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:First of all, we can't talk about.
Speaker B:It because the man is an American icon.
Speaker A:Because he passed.
Speaker A:We can't talk about it.
Speaker B:Let's.
Speaker B:You want to do this?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:No, I don't.
Speaker B:I don't.
Speaker A:I got to be careful.
Speaker B:He.
Speaker B:He was caught touching himself in an adult cinema.
Speaker A:Huh.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Watching.
Speaker B:I mean, watching.
Speaker A:I've never been to one of those.
Speaker A:Now, are you allowed to touch yourself?
Speaker B:You're not, you know, 85 years old when they were popular, when you.
Speaker A:Well, I'm asking.
Speaker A:Are you.
Speaker A:Is it.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:He got arrested for indecent exposure.
Speaker A:Oh, so you're not allowed to.
Speaker A:But it's an adult cinema that's wild.
Speaker A:Like here, guys.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Why are you.
Speaker A:What did you think was gonna happen?
Speaker B:I'm not saying he's a good guy, but I'm saying by comparative purposes, the people that he's compared to, the problem was.
Speaker B:And they also did a child show.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You can't.
Speaker A:You can't have that type of profession.
Speaker B:But if Rubens, God bless his soul, were still alive, he would probably say something the effect of.
Speaker B:I was playing a character.
Speaker B:I'm allowed to be an adult and do adult things.
Speaker B:Clearly, society disagrees.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker B:No, but his character and blow was still exceptional.
Speaker A:Best.
Speaker A:One of the best roles.
Speaker A:And honestly, top three movie for me.
Speaker B:Top three.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:It's great.
Speaker B:It's a fantastic movie.
Speaker B:It's hard for me to argue.
Speaker A:I mean.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Ill timed for you to Reference blow and the whole adult thing.
Speaker A:I mean, come on, man.
Speaker A:What are you doing here?
Speaker B:What do you mean?
Speaker A:What's going on?
Speaker B:I was going to.
Speaker A:You could have named detective from Matilda.
Speaker A:You could have named anything else.
Speaker A:But you went.
Speaker A:That's what you went with.
Speaker B:Yeah, because I have a reason.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker B:Bear with me, Matilda.
Speaker B:Fuck you.
Speaker B:All right, Reill, so remember, there was a word of the week on the show that anytime it was said, everybody on the show went that.
Speaker B:That word this week on this show is going to be the word incentive.
Speaker B:Oh, I like it.
Speaker B:Okay, that's going to come up a lot.
Speaker B:All right, all right, all right, all right.
Speaker B:Everybody listening is like, what the fuck?
Speaker B:I haven't had caffeine yet.
Speaker B:This is just the salt kicking in.
Speaker B:Rajill, you sure you don't want some of this?
Speaker A:I'm good, man.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I'm sorry.
Speaker A:They can't be a sponsor, bro.
Speaker A:I can't get down.
Speaker B:Element is sensational.
Speaker A:I can't.
Speaker B:They can sponsor me and not you.
Speaker A:That's fine.
Speaker A:That's what I'll call it.
Speaker A:I'll take the direct deposit.
Speaker B:All right, so just to recap, here, they.
Speaker B:They talked about the new homes being built.
Speaker B:They said that it was larger than expected.
Speaker B:20.5% in August compared to July.
Speaker B:They said that the home value went up to $413,500.
Speaker B: bert via X now and talk about: Speaker B:Because I want to give people perspective.
Speaker B:You're telling me that you sold more new homes than the last three years.
Speaker B:You're telling me that home prices went up.
Speaker B:Dave Ramsey's like, I knew it.
Speaker B:I knew it.
Speaker B:I knew it.
Speaker B:No, you didn't.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Okay, well, it's also.
Speaker A:It's.
Speaker A:It's when you get two players as big as Lennar and Dr. Horton that can control the market.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:Because listen, they got.
Speaker A:They have construction going on nationwide.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:And they can start picking and choosing based on whatever data they see and literally manipulate the data.
Speaker B:And effectively, they did do that.
Speaker B:So if you recall, a month ago, the homebuilder survey came out, and the homebuilders reported to the survey about their confidence in the market.
Speaker A:Okay?
Speaker B:And they were all very, very low in confidence is the lowest point in several years in confidence.
Speaker B:So they knew they had two possible paths to go down.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:They're a publicly traded company.
Speaker B:They know their number is going to be, you know, reviewed by analysts, by people who are in the market.
Speaker B:But the average everyday consumer is gonna buy.
Speaker B:The headline.
Speaker A:It's true.
Speaker B:90 people saw this article, said, oh my God, new home sales, 20 in August.
Speaker A:Honey, you know, maybe we should start looking at some of these.
Speaker B:We gotta buy now.
Speaker B:Because if we don't buy now, Dave Rams is going to be right and we're going to be wrong.
Speaker B:We don't want to do that.
Speaker A:The other, the other thing too, that I don't think we mentioned yet.
Speaker A:These new home sales, this report is based off of signed contracts and not closed.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker A:So that, that's also.
Speaker A:That doesn't mean these people got to the finish line.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker B:There's so many sexual jokes.
Speaker A:So many.
Speaker B:We're not going to do that though, because we're an adult show.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:We're not going to incentivize it.
Speaker B:He gets it.
Speaker B:All right, so there's, here's the Monte Carlo, like, analysis.
Speaker B: According to: Speaker B:If US home prices spiked 60%, we return to pre pandemic.
Speaker B:I'm sorry, US incomes spiked 60%, we would return to pre pandemic housing affordability levels.
Speaker B:So income would have to go up 60%.
Speaker A:That's that.
Speaker A:Guess what's not going to happen?
Speaker B:Probably not going to happen.
Speaker A:I don't think employers are going to be like, you know what, I appreciate you sticking this through.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker B:If U.S. home prices fell 38%, we returned to pre pandemic affordability.
Speaker A:The only way that happens.
Speaker B:That's a market crash, kids.
Speaker A:That's a market crash.
Speaker B:Listen, that's almost twice the level of a basic intro crash.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A: had the housing crash back in: Speaker A:It was because 2.9 million homes came on the market all at once, right?
Speaker A:That, that's what causes a crash.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So that's.
Speaker A:Unless you know of something that's happening, right?
Speaker A:Where somehow every company out there is adopting AI and 2.9 million people are going to be losing their jobs.
Speaker B:They're hydrated.
Speaker A:It's time for the caffeine not to become dehydrated.
Speaker A:So let me tell you.
Speaker A:Wait, let's take a, a quick pause.
Speaker A:I didn't know this.
Speaker A:So the reason why I want to cut back on the cat.
Speaker A:I've been really trying to focus in the last like two weeks on diet, exercise, and sleep.
Speaker A:All right?
Speaker A:Make minimal changes.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:With sleep.
Speaker A:I read a study.
Speaker A:Maybe you know more about this.
Speaker A:Correct me If I'm wrong, if you.
Speaker A:If I have a caffeine drink of one of these 200 milligrams of caffeine at like 2pm by the time it's 10pm, I still have 50 milligrams of caffeine in my system, which is equivalent to a drinking a green tea before going to bed.
Speaker A:I'm like, julie, okay over there.
Speaker B:That screens have been flashing at you for a while, brother.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's a X.
Speaker A:It keeps flashing.
Speaker A:I can't open any of the.
Speaker B:Oh, you don't worry about it.
Speaker B:I have all the stuff you need to reference in the show notes.
Speaker B:Screw it.
Speaker B:Don't worry about it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So 50 milligrams of caffeine before going to bed.
Speaker A:And it's been messing with my say I'm not sleeping well.
Speaker A:So, so.
Speaker A:And so I cut that out the last week.
Speaker B:That's true, by the way.
Speaker B:It is accurate.
Speaker A:So I cut that out the last week.
Speaker A:No caffeine past noon.
Speaker A:Just made a hard line.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Nothing past noon.
Speaker A:Which has been, I mean, difficult, honestly.
Speaker A:The caffeine doesn't even do anything to me anymore.
Speaker A:It's honestly just a for flavor, so.
Speaker A:But I've been sleeping so much better.
Speaker B:Okay, great.
Speaker B:Good for you.
Speaker B:I mean, I usually.
Speaker B:It's my effect and people get them to sleep like that, but you know.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You know, put you to bed.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:But it's quite the incentive.
Speaker B:But I totally agree.
Speaker B:I think it's probably accurate for most people.
Speaker B:I have always had, and maybe because I'm a large person, a very, very low resting heart rate.
Speaker A:Oh, okay.
Speaker B:Very, very low.
Speaker A:I don't actually don't know what my.
Speaker B:Resting heart rate is.
Speaker B:So I don't know about you, but I could drink two.
Speaker B:I could drink 600mg caffeine and fall right asleep.
Speaker B:I still.
Speaker B:It wouldn't affect like my energy levels like that.
Speaker A:No, I could too, but I'm not sleeping well.
Speaker A:That's my point.
Speaker A:Like, I'm not.
Speaker A:I'm like, I don't.
Speaker A:When I wake up, I do not feel well rested after like seven hours.
Speaker B:You don't have like a tracker that tracks your sleep or anything?
Speaker A:No, I mean I have the.
Speaker A:I have the bed that, that tracks it and it shows that like, I didn't have a high score.
Speaker B:Oh, that's a tracker, dude.
Speaker A:Oh, no, I thought you meant like people have been rocking those aura rings.
Speaker B:Yeah, I have an eight sleep.
Speaker B:The bed that didn't adjust to your temperature.
Speaker A:Oh.
Speaker B:I routinely get like, it this Is gonna sound terrible.
Speaker A:I want one of those.
Speaker B:They are sensational.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You got the COVID one, or it's a cover over the mattress or the whole mattress?
Speaker B:No, the.
Speaker B:So the, the mattress is basically just the COVID over a.
Speaker B:A foam mattress.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:We already had like a brand new foam mattress, so we just bought the COVID got it, and it went out like we had the.
Speaker B:We had the original, I think the third model.
Speaker B:When it, when it came out.
Speaker B:When it came out.
Speaker B:And then Adam actually told me to get it, which is part of the reason why I got it.
Speaker B:And then it broke for a while, like a year ago.
Speaker B:And it was the most uncomfortable sleep I'd had in years.
Speaker A:Oh, you become reliant on it.
Speaker B:Not relying on it, it's just you prefer it, like, you know, you really enjoy getting into a bed that's the temperature that you sleep best at.
Speaker B:And then it adjusts throughout the night.
Speaker B:It even tells you if you sleep on its own.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:So what, it has like basically three.
Speaker B:It knows the level that whether you're in art, REM sleep, deep sleep, or, you know, kind of your surface level, light sleep.
Speaker B:It knows which one you're in, and it knows how your body responds, temperature wise, during those sleep cycles.
Speaker A:You could have yours, and your wife's gonna be completely different.
Speaker B:Joanna's side is super hot.
Speaker B:It's like roasting over there.
Speaker A:It's crazy, right?
Speaker B:Like on my side.
Speaker A:Crazy how some people.
Speaker A:But then the studies are out there where like room temperature should be like 65 degrees.
Speaker B:Yeah, I don't like all the studies.
Speaker B:Ours is typically about 70.
Speaker B:70 to 70.
Speaker A:70 for us is normally where it's at.
Speaker B:It's too cold.
Speaker B:70 is too cold.
Speaker A:70 is too cold.
Speaker B:Too cold.
Speaker A:But yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah, I like having to cover myself.
Speaker B:Yeah, I do too.
Speaker B:I like to cover you too.
Speaker B:Yeah, no, I get it.
Speaker B:But honestly, one of the best investments ever made from a tech perspective.
Speaker B:I mean, the Apple watch, I'm dependent on it.
Speaker B:I like it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But could not function without a night sleep.
Speaker B:Yeah, it's, it's, it's.
Speaker B:It's a real deal holy field.
Speaker B:But to.
Speaker B:To get back to the whole thing.
Speaker B:Like, I, I have.
Speaker B:I drink energy drinks all the time.
Speaker B:I'm routinely above like 85 to 90.
Speaker B:Like, that's my sleep pattern these days.
Speaker A:Okay, so you're good.
Speaker B:You're Gucci for me.
Speaker B:I mean, I also sleep less hours than most people, so.
Speaker B:But for me, I sleep well.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So there is one other way that home prices can become affordable again.
Speaker B:How massive mortgage rates fell 4.15% from call it 6.5% today to about 2.23.
Speaker A:Then we return to pre pandemic levels of affordability.
Speaker A:And that's every realtor suggestion on how to get back to where we were.
Speaker B:Not only realtors, but real estate professionals, mortgage loan officers, the president of the United States of the United States Home Builders Association.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Real estate owners in general.
Speaker B:You know, how do I solve the affordability problem?
Speaker B:I know we'll lower rates because of value stays high.
Speaker B:Then I'm worth more money.
Speaker B:Yeah, you're worth more money.
Speaker B:Mortgage loan officers get everybody's happy, Everybody gets paid.
Speaker B:Yahtzee.
Speaker B:They're incentivized.
Speaker B:Not really feeling the enthusiasm from YouTube tonight.
Speaker A:This is going to, this is just going to be going all episode long.
Speaker B:We have a whole, you know, section dedicated to this.
Speaker B:So regil the next chart.
Speaker B:There are 35% more home sellers than buyer.
Speaker B:Wait a minute.
Speaker B:That's a problem.
Speaker B:So in August there were an estimated 35.2% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market.
Speaker B:That is more than 33%.
Speaker B:That's more than a third.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So with high percentages seen in prior months makes for strongest buyers summer on record per Redfin.
Speaker B:Not the association of Home Builders, not the national association of Realtors.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:This is a non lobbyed association.
Speaker B:This is just somebody who looks at the data.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's right.
Speaker B:In the mortgage database.
Speaker B:And despite the fact they have a real estate slant, Redfin we've always felt provides us good data.
Speaker A:They do provide good data.
Speaker B:Okay, well they're saying there are 35% more sellers than buyers Right now.
Speaker A:I'm seeing just driving around like driving the kids to basketball practice, soccer practices and sometimes they're the, they're in these communities and you see homes that are listed for sale.
Speaker A:I'm like, man, that home is still listed for sale.
Speaker B:Okay, this is not a plug.
Speaker B:I'm not plugging right now, but I'm plugging.
Speaker A:I take you as a guy that plugs.
Speaker B:I'm plugging.
Speaker A:I'm so I take you as a plug.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:Butt plugger.
Speaker A:You saw where I was going.
Speaker A:You could have left it alone.
Speaker B:I know.
Speaker B:It could have been just between you and I, unemployed.
Speaker B:I'm taking all the layers.
Speaker B:So this is a true story.
Speaker B:This is not sarcasm.
Speaker B:We have a mobile app for Black Crown Realty, right.
Speaker B:The franchise uses it.
Speaker B:I don't really have much engagement with, with the retail side of the business, but it's there.
Speaker B:Right in that.
Speaker B:Literally four years ago, I put a property search in my area with certain criteria of number of bathrooms, number of bedrooms, and home prices that I was willing to go up to.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:I haven't gotten a single fucking alert in years.
Speaker A:Wow.
Speaker B:I had forgotten about it.
Speaker B:Literally this week.
Speaker B:I started getting alerts again because home prices in my area fell back into that band.
Speaker A:No way.
Speaker B:And I started getting alerts from my own app.
Speaker B:And I was like, what the is it?
Speaker A:I remember you telling me your.
Speaker A:Your area was one of the crazier area areas in South OC where at at its peak, people were paying over a hundred grand above asking price.
Speaker B:Dude, I lost out on a property we were bidding.
Speaker B:I think we were bidding at 2, 3.
Speaker B:I think it sold for 2 8.
Speaker B:And we were bidding at 2, 3.
Speaker B:That was already 200 grand over.
Speaker A:Jeez.
Speaker B:And I remember looking at Joanna, my wife, going like, all right, I'm.
Speaker B:I'm not chasing up buy literally Ferraris.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Extra Ferrari for you.
Speaker B:No problem, sir.
Speaker B:Here you go.
Speaker B:Can I have your house now, bro?
Speaker A:My favorite.
Speaker A:I. I see on.
Speaker A:On Instagram these Realtors that go around showing their listings or showing homes right in areas, and one that always pops up is Irvine.
Speaker A:And there's like $7 million home in Irvine.
Speaker A:I'm like, $7 million.
Speaker A:Yeah, there are.
Speaker A:I mean, this house in San Antonio is like 600 grand.
Speaker B:Yeah, it's hard.
Speaker B:It's hard to.
Speaker B:Same exact home sometimes.
Speaker B:Better.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Get a way bigger garage in Texas, you know, get way more land in Texas.
Speaker A:But I mean, I know you deal with a lot of weather stuff over there, and you're on.
Speaker B:You're gonna place a roof with.
Speaker A:Hell, you're on your own power grid.
Speaker B:And I don't mind that, though.
Speaker A:You don't mind that?
Speaker B:I don't mind being on my own grid if I had to.
Speaker A:No, I mean, I mean on Texas's own grid.
Speaker A:I mean, if that.
Speaker A:We saw what happened five years ago.
Speaker B:Full solar.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:Full Tesla solar panels in the roof, Tesla battery in the garage.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:At that point.
Speaker A:Yeah, you save so much money, you might as well.
Speaker B:I'm that guy with lights on when all y' all got lights off, just laughing, smoking a cigar.
Speaker A:Yeah, dude, there was.
Speaker A:There was a study that came out about these data centers that have been popping up everywhere, and they usually target these lower income rural areas.
Speaker B:Better energy costs.
Speaker A:Better energy costs for them.
Speaker A:But it literally screws all the people living there.
Speaker A:And electricity bills apparently are through the roof around the nation because of these data centers.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And then guess what's.
Speaker A:And, and here's the, here's the, the crazy part.
Speaker A:The, the county commissioners that serve the.
Speaker A:Serve for the county that almost are.
Speaker A:Can also serve legally as lobbyists to get these data centers in and then take a.
Speaker A:Take a commission or take a paycheck from these companies, these big, you know, anyone that's producing all this AI content.
Speaker A:But it's like, dude, you just got to, you got to feel for these people living in those in those counties.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker B:Google meta a lot.
Speaker B:Chat GPT.
Speaker A:And what's going to happen?
Speaker A:Okay, let's just say there's one in Texas and they're on their own power grid.
Speaker A:What's going to happen when the power grid goes down next time?
Speaker B:Power grid.
Speaker B:These companies, these companies are trying to get nuclear power.
Speaker B:I know.
Speaker B:They're literally trying to build nuclear power plants.
Speaker A:Yeah, they have to.
Speaker B:That is not sarcasm.
Speaker A:No, I know.
Speaker B:They're literally trying to build nuclear power plants because they know that's how much power it'll take to put.
Speaker B:This is the part in Terminator where the machines take over.
Speaker A:Getting close, man.
Speaker B:If they have their own power supply and our power goes out, guess.
Speaker A:Guess whose power is going to stay on.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Chat GPT.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's it.
Speaker A:I'm out of luck.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Send note.
Speaker B:Kill humans.
Speaker B:You know what I mean?
Speaker A:You are the weakest link.
Speaker B:Goodbye.
Speaker B:These guys are taking our power.
Speaker B:Kill humans.
Speaker B:Oh, that's the, that's the struggle, right?
Speaker A:If you're messing with their grid, that's scary, man.
Speaker B:Like, that's the fight.
Speaker B:It's not going to be gold.
Speaker A:Yeah, I saw one.
Speaker A:I saw a video of one of those.
Speaker A:Like, it wasn't Tesla robot, but it was one built just like it and it had tripped and fell on the ground and the way it bounced up was like from like a vintage, like, karate movie where, like, oh, I saw.
Speaker B:That do like the back.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I was like, what the hell?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I wouldn't be able to defend myself.
Speaker A:Peace.
Speaker A:I'm out.
Speaker B:If I saw a robot do that.
Speaker A:Can't even shoot it.
Speaker B:I'm like, bro, you can't even shoot it.
Speaker B:I've seen I am robot or I am.
Speaker A:I'm legend.
Speaker B:I'm legend.
Speaker B:No, they're on the robots.
Speaker A:Oh.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:Irobot.
Speaker B:Irobot.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I purposely try to forget Will Smith movies now.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Better human being.
Speaker B:Have you seen this beef between Jada Pinkett Smith and the kids and Chris Rock?
Speaker B:They're now going back and forth in the text messages and the Twitter messages.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah, bro.
Speaker B:They're getting nasty.
Speaker A:And Chris Rock kind of came in with the hammer with the entanglements.
Speaker B:He keeps going on and on about, like, we all know you love Tupac.
Speaker B:Why you shaved your head?
Speaker B:Yeah, we all know you don't really have alopecia.
Speaker A:Like, God, let it go, man.
Speaker B:Let it go, bro.
Speaker A:Let it.
Speaker A:I know you.
Speaker B:You.
Speaker A:You.
Speaker A:You got your tour.
Speaker A:You made your money.
Speaker A:Take the L. No, he won.
Speaker A:He won, bro.
Speaker A:He won.
Speaker B:He's losing now.
Speaker A:You think so?
Speaker A:Oh, yeah, because his kids got involved.
Speaker B:You're clapping back now at the dude's kids.
Speaker A:Well, Jada can't be coming.
Speaker A:Coming at.
Speaker A:I mean, come on.
Speaker B:If someone slaps my dad, I'm not going to like that person.
Speaker B:Okay, what Chris Rock think is going to happen?
Speaker B:Yeah, you think Jada.
Speaker B:Jada was gonna be like, you're right, Chris.
Speaker B:My dad was out of line.
Speaker B:That's just not gonna happen.
Speaker A:Not gonna happen.
Speaker A:Yeah, I mean, it's just.
Speaker B:Don't be a narcissist.
Speaker B:That's all I'm saying.
Speaker B:I mean, the kid does have a weird fashion sense.
Speaker B:All right, there's a chart here for the 35% more sellers and buyers that you pulled up, which I think is meaningful.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Basically what they're saying is this is a buyer's market because there is more inventory for the buyers, because there are more sellers than buyers.
Speaker B:That is going to be a reoccurring theme as you get in the next article.
Speaker B:Also from Lance Lambert via X, the gross margin of Lennar.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:This is where we get into the nasty little details.
Speaker B:All right, the chart at the bottom, this.
Speaker B:Virgil, if you want to pull it up.
Speaker B:Thank you very much.
Speaker B:I'm going to throw out some facts and as it relates to Lennar's gross margin, and then we're going to talk about why.
Speaker B:All right, the gross margin of Lennar, a giant homebuilder, ranked number 129 on the Fortune 100 of all companies.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:That's how big they are.
Speaker B:Just hit a 16 year low, so their profit margins are at a 16 year low.
Speaker B: Take: Speaker B: You get: Speaker A:Yep.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:All this reo, the real estate owned from short sold properties, properties that were sold less than the mortgages that were owed on them, flooded the market.
Speaker B:And because there was this flood of millions, as you said, two plus million of homes on the market, it Dropped values down.
Speaker B:They are at the lowest they've been on profit margin since that time.
Speaker B:That is telling.
Speaker A:That's very telling.
Speaker B:Okay, so let's get into why.
Speaker B: of: Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:So the price they're telling you at average out at $413,500 for a new home.
Speaker B:That is the top line number before incentives, which means they have discounted these properties 14% below that, which is about 25, like $30,000.
Speaker A:Ish.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So that being said, okay, if you were to subtract that, you get a very different number.
Speaker B:So Lennar's sale incentives rate you guys aren't keeping up is.
Speaker B: is at its highest level since: Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:Lennar's gross margin is at its lowest level since that time.
Speaker B:Because we can do math.
Speaker B: % from its: Speaker B:The chart here tells the story, right?
Speaker B: of: Speaker B: Sorry,: Speaker B:And we are vastly approaching that again.
Speaker B:But we are at the second lowest level at 17.5 down from from the number.
Speaker B:The only reason why it's not as low as the historical low level, if you're looking at this chart on Spotify and YouTube, is because it started from a higher starting point and came downward.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's the only reason.
Speaker B:So we know that Lennar had massive discounts, effectively from their price because they had a homebuilders survey.
Speaker B:They all expressed negative sentiment.
Speaker B:They had two choices.
Speaker B:You can either sell less homes and have the market think you're weak, or you can sell more homes, take less profit in either way, you're going to make less money.
Speaker B:You sell less homes, you make less money, or you sell more homes for less profit and you make less money.
Speaker B:What's the better result?
Speaker B:You go with the one that gives you a better headline, which is the one you saw on CNBC to start the show.
Speaker B:12 or 20% increase.
Speaker B:It's amazing.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, when you get, when you get a headline like that, what does this suggest?
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:There's more building activity, more potential job creations.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And there is.
Speaker A:There's better consumer confidence in the market with what's to come, and people aren't as afraid.
Speaker A:Whereas if you Get a slowdown number.
Speaker A:Obviously, we all know what that hints at.
Speaker A:Economic slowdown.
Speaker A:But it goes to show you how.
Speaker B:Politically navigated this is.
Speaker A:But that.
Speaker A:Yeah, and it's also like, come on, cnbc, you know better.
Speaker A:Why are you trying, like, it's almost like they're in on it.
Speaker B:To their credit, they did.
Speaker B:There was a small, like, one sentence statement about incentives.
Speaker A:Ah, but they know the headline, bro.
Speaker B:Gotta give me more.
Speaker A:But that stuff makes me upset, man.
Speaker A:It makes me upset.
Speaker A:Because they know.
Speaker A:Because they know people just rely on headlines.
Speaker B:Well, let's talk about last Friday, shall we?
Speaker A:Let's do it.
Speaker B:Let's pull up the next chart.
Speaker B:Regil.
Speaker B:It's at the bottom of the next section.
Speaker B:This coming from Nick.
Speaker B:Nick Gurley, Fees from Revenger via X. Lennar is showing you what has to happen in the housing market to drive sales.
Speaker B:I agree with that.
Speaker B:Let's take a look at this chart and go ahead and put that bad boy in the full screen.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker B:Oh, it's so big.
Speaker A:It's so big.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:This chart, I think, is very indicative.
Speaker B:If you're not watching Spotify or YouTube, you really owe it to yourself to at least go to our channels, look at this chart.
Speaker B:Because it's telling.
Speaker A:And so there's something about hitting the like button that actually makes the visuals better.
Speaker A:I don't know what it is.
Speaker A:Yeah, I don't know what it is.
Speaker A:Yeah, I don't know what it is.
Speaker A:And.
Speaker A:And then it becomes even better.
Speaker A:Some.
Speaker A:Somehow it gets better.
Speaker A:Like from 4k maybe to 5k.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:That's what they say.
Speaker A:If you share.
Speaker A:If you share it with a friend.
Speaker B:Oh, really?
Speaker A:Yeah, that's how.
Speaker A:That's what happens.
Speaker B:I think it's like a dopamine response.
Speaker A:That's.
Speaker A:I think that's it biologically, you know.
Speaker B:So this is what I call the crocodile mouth.
Speaker B:When one thing is going up high, is that going.
Speaker B:It looks like it's going to eat something.
Speaker B:What it's eating is the lies.
Speaker A:The lies.
Speaker B:So Lennar is showing you what has to happen.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:So they've cut 22%.
Speaker B:That's how much their prices are down 22%.
Speaker B:But they're not telling you to market that because they're hiding it vis a vis these.
Speaker B:These motivating factors to get you to buy.
Speaker B:I had to deal with all that to get you not to scream.
Speaker B:Okay, these are now below pre pandemic pricing.
Speaker B:If you price that in the result, sales orders have spiked.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:So the Media picks up that spiking, but doesn't look deeper.
Speaker B:Lennar's margins have compressed to 17.5% as a result of the price cuts.
Speaker B:But that's just how it goes in a housing recession, okay?
Speaker B:To move inventory and sell homes, you need to accept less.
Speaker B:The question is how they chose to accept less.
Speaker B:And tell the public that on an earnings call, existing home sellers would be wise to take note.
Speaker B:And tomorrow existing home sales come out.
Speaker B:And existing home sales can't be manipulated quite the same way.
Speaker B:Now, this is where I give a big ass asterisk.
Speaker A:Okay?
Speaker A:The biggest asterix.
Speaker B:Yeah, I never see that word.
Speaker B:Well, yeah, I can't do these impressions anymore where I do impressions of person that you're trying to make an impression.
Speaker A:Of because I said.
Speaker A:I said a word.
Speaker B:I say off his political allegiance.
Speaker B:And I am not a political allegiant.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Did you break the TV original?
Speaker B:You broke the tv?
Speaker B:Oh, no.
Speaker B:Oh, you know what it did?
Speaker B:It went back in that damn scan thing mode.
Speaker B:Is it showing the scan lines on the screen again?
Speaker B:It is.
Speaker A:It's not.
Speaker A:We're good.
Speaker A:We're Gucci.
Speaker A:We're Gucci.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker A:Oh, yep, There you go.
Speaker B:Damn it.
Speaker B:I know this technology.
Speaker B:I knows it.
Speaker B:That's okay.
Speaker B:Because nobody cares about our show anyway, right?
Speaker A:Stop it.
Speaker A:They do care.
Speaker A:They want a wives episode.
Speaker A:That's what they need to watch.
Speaker B:Maybe your wife.
Speaker A:No, no, I got.
Speaker A:I got a message today.
Speaker A:Today from multiple people.
Speaker B:Your wife went on the live stream and pitched the wife show.
Speaker A:No, no.
Speaker A:We talked about on the last episode.
Speaker B:You're backing me into a corner, bro.
Speaker A:You're like, abort mission, bro.
Speaker B:Now ain't the time.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Would you.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:It'S getting hot in here.
Speaker B:All right, so almost a quarter of all single family housing starts nationally are tied to just two home builders.
Speaker B:Next chart, Regill.
Speaker B:All right, these two home builders, as we talked about at the top of the show, Dr. Horton.
Speaker B:D, H, I.
Speaker B:If you follow the stock market, Lennar, Len.
Speaker B:Those two account for about 25% of the market.
Speaker B:D. Dr. Horton at 12.3% and Lennar at 11.8%.
Speaker A:Is it 11.6?
Speaker B:I can't read.
Speaker B:Who cares?
Speaker B:Earnings last Friday revealed that Lennar is slowing the starts like we.
Speaker B:We've already kind of uncovered here, which alone has implications for the entire sector, but also trickles into other manufacturers and builders.
Speaker B:But it's not just there.
Speaker B:Wait a minute, Chris.
Speaker B:We never get stock advice in the show.
Speaker B:And you're kind of a dirty son.
Speaker B:Of a bitch because you promised us when you left the the bank that you would start doing that.
Speaker B:Okay, let's do this.
Speaker A:You did kind of promise that.
Speaker B:I did kind of promise that.
Speaker B:Let's do this now.
Speaker B:Okay, look, if you're a home builder and you're slowing starts, meaning you're slowing the building of new homes because you know this is a problem and you're going to make less money, what do you do?
Speaker B:You build less homes.
Speaker B:If you're building less homes, you use less contractors.
Speaker B:Use less contractors.
Speaker B:Less people are buying wood, buying steel, buying building materials, all the materials.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:There is a trickle down effect.
Speaker B:If you're going to short stock, I would probably look at some of those stock.
Speaker B:And those companies, major builders, for example, where are they going to go?
Speaker B:Their profits are probably going to continue to go down because what do we know after that?
Speaker B:What happened after the last rate cut?
Speaker B:Rates went up.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:About a percent of a point.
Speaker B:Because the fed funds rate really affects consumer borrowing.
Speaker B:Not really on mortgage rates.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:At least directly anyway.
Speaker B:So you can expect mortgage rates to climb or stay where they are incrementally over the next couple months, which means home prices, if they're going to move, have to come down.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:So even with the two projected rate cuts coming by the end of the year, you still expect rates to stay in the mid sixes.
Speaker B:I'll put it to you this way.
Speaker B:If you got a mortgage rate today at 6%, I feel like in about a year from now, six months from now, by June of next year, I feel like you're gonna be going, you know what?
Speaker B:We made a good decision.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Wow.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:That's what, that's what I pretty.
Speaker A:That's pretty telling because you can, you.
Speaker B:Can do the narrative, the spin, the rhetoric.
Speaker B:The market has to believe in the long end of the curve, the 10 year end of the curve.
Speaker B:They have to believe in the long term success cyc of the economy.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And right now when you tune in the CNBC or any of these market watch, you know, commentary shows, everybody's throwing around a word and it's not our buzzword, it's the word frothy.
Speaker B:Everything feels a little frothy.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:You know when you get that foam at the top of your latte.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:And you're like, oh, that's so frothy.
Speaker B:It's so nice.
Speaker B:But you're really not getting the full latte because they fill that up with like 18 of foam.
Speaker A:They'd be cheating a little bit.
Speaker B:You're not getting the full cup.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Well, the market right now is a bit frothy and you're not getting the full cup.
Speaker B:It looks a whole lot more full than it is.
Speaker A:That's true.
Speaker A:That's, that's a good point.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:The analogy master tonight.
Speaker B:I'm out here.
Speaker A:You're, you're on it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean just a tip.
Speaker B:Just, just a tip of the cup.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:I think the existing home sales report.
Speaker A:So for everyone, that's the, the, the homes that have already been built and have been lived in for some time.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:That's what that report is.
Speaker A:And that makes up somewhere around 85% of, of all the sales activity.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So before bigger slice of the pie.
Speaker B:I wanted to make sure the asterisk that I was going to add here was that both existing home sales and new home sales do have a tendency to be revised down just the way jobs do.
Speaker B:So these numbers can and most likely will change in the coming months.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:But, but I do know existing sales is they report on closed deals.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:That, that has a very, very low change probability.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:New home sales does because as you pointed out earlier.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:These aren't transactions that have closed.
Speaker B:These are just initiated.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So like shifts in the report that comes out tomorrow, the existing home sales report, that shows it reflects more of like consumer confidence and it shows you really what people are doing.
Speaker A:Are they moving like out of the state?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:It's very telling.
Speaker A:On Exodus.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:I think we see a lot of people from California leaving, going to other states because it just becomes too expensive to live here.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Also it shows if families are downsizing.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So that's, that report is much more telling because it gives you a bigger piece of the pie as far as data goes.
Speaker A:You don't think so?
Speaker B:No, I think it is.
Speaker B:I, I, I, I've always found existing home sales be much more valuable.
Speaker B:I was just as you say that I'm sitting here thinking to myself, I do expect those numbers to be mildly decent.
Speaker B:I don't think there's anything like cataclysmic in there.
Speaker B:Bad.
Speaker B:But I think that it's pretty obvious to me and is conspiratorial tinfoil hats on all that stuff that these numbers can be manipulated for ulterior reasons because they are revised later on.
Speaker B:And just like the job numbers.
Speaker B:Unless it was like the last two, two big ass revisions.
Speaker B:You never hear about the revisions.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:So these, these guys can get out of headlines.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:They can push it out there and then deal with the Ramifications of this continues later on, but they can try to control the narrative.
Speaker B:Perception becomes reality.
Speaker A:But what's good for the listeners and what they should take away from it really is look, like you said, at what point in history have, you know, newer homes been.
Speaker A:Become more affordable than existing homes?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So you owe yourself a favor.
Speaker A:If you are in the market and you're looking to buy a home for, you know, your family's utility purpose, then go out and see what type of incentives they're offering.
Speaker A:See what type.
Speaker B:I mean, you never, you're not participating, you know, you're doing over there.
Speaker A:You never know.
Speaker A:And I.
Speaker A:One, one of the, one of those factors that they do offer.
Speaker A:I'm trying to refrain from the word.
Speaker A:One of the factors that they, that they may push on you because they do have their own mortgage ARM is.
Speaker A:No pun intended, ARM loans.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Adjustable rate mortgages.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And they, they might push that on you because they, they can control their own finances.
Speaker B:Are seeing more adjustable rate mortgages.
Speaker B:3, 5 and 7 year fixed.
Speaker A:I mean, that's scary given, given what you said.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Like if you were to get a, a 6% rate today and you would be happy six months from now.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker A:That doesn't mean it'll be that three years from now.
Speaker A:But you don't know.
Speaker A:We don't know what it's going to look like three years from now.
Speaker B:No, you don't.
Speaker B:And just like this is.
Speaker B:I wouldn't gamble.
Speaker A:I wouldn't gamble.
Speaker B:You shouldn't gamble where you live.
Speaker B:But this is PSL season, Right?
Speaker B:We're Jill, you and I. Yeah.
Speaker B:Both aficionados.
Speaker B:We know the game.
Speaker A:I ain't about it, bro.
Speaker B:Some of us are saltier than others.
Speaker A:No, not that salty.
Speaker A:Not element.
Speaker A:Not element salty.
Speaker A:But yeah.
Speaker B:But there's another season that is upon us.
Speaker A:Season?
Speaker A:Yeah, Halloween season.
Speaker A:Got your outfit.
Speaker B:I don't do Halloween.
Speaker A:Gingerbread for the boy.
Speaker A:You don't do it?
Speaker B:No, I do for the boy.
Speaker A:Gingerbread latte season.
Speaker A:Ginger.
Speaker A:Gingerbread.
Speaker A:He got, he was hopping while he said it.
Speaker B:Got a whole coffee page that he's producing.
Speaker A:Oh, we gotta pimp that out.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:What's the, what's the handle on Instagram?
Speaker A:It's called OC Coffee Tour.
Speaker A:That'd be 500.
Speaker A:Thank you very much.
Speaker B:550 actually.
Speaker A:Yeah, go ahead.
Speaker A:That's the plug.
Speaker B:Because you have another one as well, right?
Speaker A:Yeah, the Boba one.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:I have the OC Boba tour also.
Speaker B:So you're just drinking fluids all day long.
Speaker A:He's on that fluid diet.
Speaker B:I wonder why you got migraines.
Speaker B:Sugar on sugar.
Speaker A:Tapioca, bro.
Speaker A:Man.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So when do you eat?
Speaker A:Yeah, I'd say shots for that.
Speaker B:Speaking.
Speaker B:Speaking of which, what's, what's this week's weight?
Speaker A:Right now it's at.
Speaker A:I think it was like 217.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Down still are you pretty consistent with measuring every day at the same time?
Speaker A:Fasted in the morning.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Usually after a good poop, man.
Speaker A:You know.
Speaker A:Oh, you got to make sure you got to get that.
Speaker B:Evacuate your bowels.
Speaker B:Oh yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:See I'm science based.
Speaker A:Clean start.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Evacuate your bowels.
Speaker B:Mine doesn't work until it's properly caffeinated.
Speaker A:I've also been doing some weight training also.
Speaker B:So there he is.
Speaker A:I can feel the, the muscles being rebuilt.
Speaker A:Oh, I feel the muscles.
Speaker A:He says, yeah.
Speaker B:So some of that's probably just water weight and, and muscle mass being added back in.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker B:Yeah, you're probably, you're probably still leaning out.
Speaker B:You know, don't let the one pound discourage you.
Speaker A:Oh no, it's better than nothing.
Speaker A:Average.
Speaker A:Average it out for the week.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:That's, that's the, that's the trick.
Speaker A:Don't get hung up on a day.
Speaker B:Yeah, I used to only do it once a week.
Speaker B:Yeah, I'd only go on the scale like once a week, whenever really.
Speaker A:Oh.
Speaker A:Or measure every day and just take the average for the week.
Speaker B:I used to do that.
Speaker B:But it gives like excessive compulsive.
Speaker B:Like there were some days I'd waking, I'd wake up and be like, damn it, I'm two pounds higher.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:What did I eat yesterday is that.
Speaker B:I'm still emotional about it.
Speaker A:That payway salad.
Speaker B:Yeah, Peiway salad was the best until I realized that a thousand milligrams of sugar.
Speaker B:Bastards.
Speaker B:All right, so it's also M A season.
Speaker B:That's the season that's upon us.
Speaker A:M and A season.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I woke up.
Speaker A:What makes this season?
Speaker A:What makes it this, this, this time of year?
Speaker A:What makes it M and A season?
Speaker B:It's not always this time of year.
Speaker B:I'm just being hyperbole driven right about now.
Speaker B:But there I thought M and A was going to pick up about a year ago.
Speaker B:And then private equity is, is all over the news.
Speaker B:If you've been listening the finance space, you've heard a lot about private equity.
Speaker B:So much so that every asshole influencer on media is like, hey Saeed, let me tell you how to make some money.
Speaker B:You should buy some businesses.
Speaker B:You know, businesses make a Lot of money.
Speaker B:You should buy, like, a blue collar car wash. You should buy a business.
Speaker B: Alex Hermosi,: Speaker B: Kris Krohn wants: Speaker A:You know Cody Sanchez?
Speaker A:Yeah, she knows how to run every business, apparently.
Speaker B:She knows.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:I worked as an intern for Morgan Stanley for, like, five minutes, so I know everything about finance.
Speaker B:Let me tell you how to get rich.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Let me tell you about the business.
Speaker B:Look, I'm really good and articulate, so I can say all sorts of smart things.
Speaker B:So clearly, I know how to tell you how to big a business and make money.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Just follow me.
Speaker B:Just follow me.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Buy my book.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I'm gonna go on Stephen's show and do a roundtable.
Speaker B:Alex Hermosi.
Speaker B:I was like, what the.
Speaker A:So where's your invite, bro?
Speaker B:Yeah, I know, right?
Speaker B:Because they don't.
Speaker B:You don't want me at that table.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:It's like all y' all con artists a little controversial.
Speaker B:Yeah, it would be a bad.
Speaker B:It'd be bad look for everybody.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You're a con.
Speaker B:You.
Speaker A:We gotta get you.
Speaker A:We gotta find a way to get you on there.
Speaker A:Like a Borat style.
Speaker A:Like, just change your whole outfit.
Speaker B:My name is Christopher Robini.
Speaker A:Christopher Robini.
Speaker B:I'm an economist.
Speaker B:I am from Ukraine.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I like to make you rich.
Speaker A:We could joke like this because half of you is from that part of the world.
Speaker B:Yeah, the best half.
Speaker A:Oh, the best half.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:The cultured half.
Speaker A:Is that what you.
Speaker A:What you would say?
Speaker B:I. I like who.
Speaker B:When I was a kid, you grow up and you're, like, mixed.
Speaker B:You don't know what you are and stuff like that.
Speaker B:I love.
Speaker A:You're figuring it out.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:The point where you realize, like, it's okay to have like, four or five different ways to.
Speaker B:You know, when you're brought up, like, one way culturally, you kind of learn one way.
Speaker B:When you're brought up like a mom who's mixed and a dad who's essentially mixed and, like, you learn all these different cultures, you get so much more exposure to the world and different people.
Speaker A:It's cool.
Speaker A:Is that how you took it initially or were you confused at first?
Speaker A:No, because, like, why, why.
Speaker A:Why are these people like this and these people like this?
Speaker A:Like, this side of my family does it this way and this side of the family doesn't.
Speaker B:No, I mean, I always kind of got that.
Speaker B:I guess what was lost on me was, like, the esoteric difference between my mom is not.
Speaker B:You look at my mom, you're like, oh, she's white.
Speaker B:You look at my dad, you go, oh, he's Iranian.
Speaker B:But it's more complex than that.
Speaker B:Like, my dad's not fully Iranian, and most Iranians aren't fully Iranian.
Speaker B:They're usually a Molotov cocktail of other things from that region.
Speaker B:And my mom, who's white, is usually a mix of.
Speaker B:She's American Indian, she's French, she's German, she's Dutch, and hence my height and size.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You know, you start to.
Speaker B:You start to get comfortable with the fact that, like, you know, I might be a mutt by traditional standards, but I like it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I mean, I'm not saying there's in.
Speaker A:There's nothing wrong with it.
Speaker A:That's the thing that we've been trying to like, because both mine and my wife's families are.
Speaker A:They're all Afghan.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:So like a 23andMe or something like that.
Speaker A:I bet you definitely ain't doing no 23andMe, bruh.
Speaker A:They're not keeping my DNA over there and selling it off.
Speaker A:Yeah, but it's how to introduce the culture in a way to where, you know, it's not, like being forced upon them, but it's, like, more, you know, gradual.
Speaker A:You know what I mean?
Speaker A:So for me, it was really, like, in.
Speaker A:That was, like, one thing that I loved about our culture was, like, the.
Speaker A:The rugs in.
Speaker A:In the home.
Speaker A:Like, I don't care about the furniture.
Speaker B:Yeah, Yeah.
Speaker A:I love this.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:But, like, the Afghan rugs in the home, like, I don't know.
Speaker A:I just.
Speaker A:Like, my wife, for whatever reason, she's like, I've had it my whole life.
Speaker A:I hate it.
Speaker A:I don't want it.
Speaker A:I was like, please, I want it.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:I think you can do.
Speaker B:I would love to see, like, like, a brutalist style, like, house where it's, like, all concrete and industrial, like, but then you throw in, like, really nice, like, after rugs, you know, or.
Speaker B:I think that's beautiful.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You have like, these little, like, statement pieces throughout the house that bring in warmth.
Speaker A:I think it's awesome.
Speaker A:Yeah, I agree.
Speaker A:And then just some of the.
Speaker A:Some of the other stuff.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Like, for instance, we're trying to teach them, look, when adults walk into the room, you stand up and you greet them.
Speaker B:Yeah, I like that.
Speaker B:I think that's just.
Speaker B:You learned respectful ideals that are based around your culture.
Speaker B:But if that.
Speaker B:That's probably one of the best things I learned from my father was it's weird, like, when you're a kid growing up with, like, middle Eastern parents.
Speaker B:I don't know if it's the same for, like, every culture.
Speaker B:I know certainly regil is the same.
Speaker B:Like, respect is a huge part of, like, the progression of age.
Speaker B:And, like, when people walk in the room that are older than you, there's certain things you do and.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:There's certain greetings you provide.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I think all cultures have an element of that.
Speaker B:It's just expressed in different ways.
Speaker A:Yeah, I would hope so.
Speaker A:Anyways.
Speaker A:So we're.
Speaker A:We're, like, dabbling and trying to teach the kids.
Speaker A:Like, my son's way more receptive to it.
Speaker A:My daughter's kind of like, why?
Speaker A:Really?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So we're like, okay.
Speaker A:She's.
Speaker A:That one's gonna be a challenge.
Speaker B:You know, my parents did that I don't think I could do is that they.
Speaker B:They were really open to the idea of different religions.
Speaker B:So my father was Muslim, became Christian, still kind of both went to Christian law schools.
Speaker B:I went to, like, Catholic private schools.
Speaker B:I went to Christian private schools.
Speaker B:I went to Muslim mosque school at night, you know, read the Quran.
Speaker B:I know.
Speaker B:You know, I did.
Speaker A:It was fine.
Speaker A:It's fine.
Speaker A:It was great.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:I have, you know, Jewish family members, Jewish best friend growing up, you know, gone down the path of, like, temple.
Speaker B:Been there, like, have tremendous respect for.
Speaker B:For the religion.
Speaker B:I've spent a lot of time with Buddhism, traveled all over Southeast Asia, been the temples there.
Speaker B:And my parents were very open to, like, whatever spirituality you think you can, you know, anchor yourself into.
Speaker B:Because to them, it wasn't, like, buy into mine.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:You know, it was like, hey, like, what you do, what you think is you.
Speaker A:Yeah, that.
Speaker A:And that's the messaging that we really have at our.
Speaker A:In our home is do what makes you feel like you're the best.
Speaker A:Makes you the best version of yourself, whatever that may be.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:As long.
Speaker A:And if.
Speaker A:But just make sure that that's your best version.
Speaker A:That's all I'm asking.
Speaker B:I think all those cultures, when you.
Speaker B:It's crazy to me, too, because I've traveled a lot over the world.
Speaker B:I'm really into ancient history and archaeology.
Speaker B:A lot of those.
Speaker B:I'm sorry, too much.
Speaker B:Too much caffeine insult.
Speaker B:A lot of those cultures have very similar stories.
Speaker B:A lot of, like, the extremists will take the stories and divide the.
Speaker B:The nuances between them to separate people.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But I tend to look at all these cultures and go, okay, if they all came from, like, a same Eastern European, kind of centralized, you know, area all the way to the Middle east at the time, maybe even up through Asia.
Speaker B:Depending where you're at.
Speaker B:They.
Speaker B:They all have, like, the exact same stories.
Speaker A:Oh, it's pretty similar.
Speaker B:Very similar stories.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Similar, like rules and guidelines.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So similar philosophies and how you treat people.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:I mean, there's like, sacraments and whatnot that are very different.
Speaker B:Even Buddhism has a little bit of this in their spirituality.
Speaker B:But it's very interesting when you stop spending so much time trying to find the differences in religions and start trying to find the similarities, because it really dovetails in and we try to understand the cultures where these came from.
Speaker B:What's really interesting to me is when you get to, like, islands like Japan, like, how they developed differently.
Speaker B:And then there's a Korean, Japanese link lineage.
Speaker B:Really fascinating.
Speaker B:So really, really interesting human stuff there.
Speaker B:But we're here to talk about M and A.
Speaker A:Let's do this.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Give me some M and A.
Speaker B:Getting off topic.
Speaker A:Give me some M and A.
Speaker B:So this came up on a couple different platforms.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:The two largest real estate residential.
Speaker B:Real estate brokerages are combining Compass to acquire Anywhere Anywhere owns Century 21, Coldwell Banker, Sotheby's Better Homes, and a couple other ones for $1.6 billion.
Speaker B:Compass announced this via press release.
Speaker B:And it was a meaningful press release, one that Ryan Sirhant jumped all over, set up a hotline.
Speaker B:Everybody had emotional trauma and tolls.
Speaker B:If anybody wanted to join his firm.
Speaker B:You know, he had like a whole website set up literally within like, 24 hours.
Speaker B:It was.
Speaker B:It was the same day.
Speaker B:But this is massive.
Speaker B:Two of the biggest in the.
Speaker B:In the business are coming together.
Speaker B:That's not happening because the business is in a safe place.
Speaker A:Yeah, Right.
Speaker B:It's right.
Speaker B:When people go through M and A, it's because they're usually the top of a cycle or they're entering into where they think will be tough times.
Speaker A:Got it.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:It's either the perfect time to sell or it's just after.
Speaker B:And it's never leading up to it because why would you leave money on the table?
Speaker A:No, Right, Exactly.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So now, first of all, if this gets past antitrust laws, which.
Speaker B:This could be a monopoly.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:That's how big.
Speaker A:That's how big these two are.
Speaker B:That's how big this is.
Speaker B:But assuming you can get past antitrust scrutiny and you might be able to.
Speaker B:This is very telling.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:The market is consolidating on the single family residential side.
Speaker B:Why is this consolidating?
Speaker B:Now?
Speaker B:If home sales are going up 20% and all things are peachy and lovely and great.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:This, to me is indicative of bigger financial stress.
Speaker B:And we have always said and told people by the time it gets to the news, it's too late.
Speaker B:The headlines have already been made.
Speaker B:If you see on the news, it's already been traded, diced up.
Speaker A:What's too late?
Speaker A:What makes it too late?
Speaker B:You're not going to make money on the trade if everybody else knows about it.
Speaker A:Okay, I see.
Speaker B:I'm telling you right now, the real estate market is changing.
Speaker B:And this press release going out, which got some coverage, is indicative of stress in the economy, not winning.
Speaker B:And because I think there's so much private equity money dispersed out there, Private equity is in the business to make money and get out at the top.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And make a return for their investors.
Speaker B:Right, right.
Speaker B:They are not going to hold on to something that has risk in it, but they're not going to leave money on the table.
Speaker B:They're going to keep running this thing up as far as they can get it.
Speaker B:When they think they've gone as far as they can, they sell.
Speaker B:And that usually sells what starts off as an activity.
Speaker A:So when something like this happens, I mean, how long it gets announced?
Speaker A:This gets announced to win.
Speaker A:Just two days ago.
Speaker B:Two days ago.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:How long until they.
Speaker A:Something like this can close?
Speaker B:It depends on by industry.
Speaker B:It'll probably take a couple months at the very, very earliest.
Speaker B:But it'll be, I mean, the antitrust law scrutiny, it'll probably be six months to a year.
Speaker A:My guess, lawyers are going to find a way to get their billable hours through this.
Speaker B:Well, I mean, look, you have to regulators, you've got public trading institutions.
Speaker B:I mean, it's, it's some work.
Speaker B:It's not easy.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:But I think more than anything else, it's indicative of where the economy might be going.
Speaker B:This is indicative.
Speaker B:That could be frothy.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:They, they see something that we don't and they're trading based off of it.
Speaker B:And by the time the headlines come out for the reasons why these trades made sense, I, I think.
Speaker A:Do they both do the same thing?
Speaker A:I personally never heard of Anywhere Real Estate.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:You have all the subsidiary companies.
Speaker A:Oh, the subsidiary.
Speaker A:Oh, okay.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So Anywhere Real Estate is just the parent company of all the other companies that I mentioned.
Speaker B:So just to be clear, you've all heard of them.
Speaker B:You guys didn't recognize they had already swooped up so many of the competition.
Speaker B:So Anywhere owns Century 21.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:They own Coldwell Banker.
Speaker B:They Own Sotheby's.
Speaker B:They own Better Homes and Corin or.
Speaker B:Yeah, Corin, whatever.
Speaker B:So they own.
Speaker B:Yeah, they are the largest.
Speaker A:Okay, okay, okay.
Speaker B:They're the two largest real estate companies.
Speaker B:And I've always had beef with Robert Refkin and well, Compass in particular I've had beef with.
Speaker B:And their model was originally built on this whole like tech model.
Speaker B:And it was like a fintech play.
Speaker B:And it's not.
Speaker B:It's just a real estate brokerage.
Speaker B:It's all shenanigans.
Speaker B:But they've got a ton of money behind them and a ton of investment behind them.
Speaker B:And this is a huge play for them.
Speaker B:And maybe it's good for them, maybe it's bad for anywhere.
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker B:I think what comes next is a cycle of boutique real estate firms because these are getting too big now and people don't feel they get lost in those systems.
Speaker B:And a lot of the real estate agents and real estate brokers, you give more of your commission.
Speaker B:These big companies, that's the problem.
Speaker B:Yeah, you get a lot of support, a lot of infrastructure, a lot of people to help you out.
Speaker B:But once you get your bearings and you know, the business that was want or need that.
Speaker A:Yeah, but that's their value.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Their value is that they can do it on their own and they don't, they don't need that, that infrastructure.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker B:So I think a lot of people are going to go to more boutique style real estate, regional real estate companies in the future.
Speaker B:I think that's you rise of those.
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker A:Why would somebody go to that?
Speaker B:Kevin's firm Case does a great job of this.
Speaker B:He says less corporate, more connected.
Speaker B:I think that's a sensational way of putting it.
Speaker B:And he has a concierge.
Speaker B:He's created a. Curated a brand around his ideal client.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:He loves mid century modern.
Speaker B:He loves, you know, coastal homes.
Speaker B:But he also has like, you know, some stuff in Big Bear, some stuff in Joshua Tree in the desert.
Speaker B:But he has a niche client that fits his mold.
Speaker B:But those people resonate with him and he resonates with them because they culturally identify with one another.
Speaker B:He does car meets, he does running together.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:It's an entire ecosystem of people who like being around one.
Speaker A:That's really cool.
Speaker B:But it's not this big corporate structure and it makes him more authentic, more relatable.
Speaker B:It's one of the things we talked about a lot on this show.
Speaker B:The next generation of leadership is going to come from companies that have leadership that, you know, yeah, exactly.
Speaker A:They put themselves out there.
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker A:They give you insight and into their actual dayto day or their actual opinions, right?
Speaker B:100%.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So, yeah.
Speaker A:Anyway, the kids like to say 10 toes down.
Speaker B:10.
Speaker B:10 toes down.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:It's a Hunman kind.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:I just hear the kid say it.
Speaker A:Oh, God, I'm so sorry, man.
Speaker A:I just know what my son comes home and he says.
Speaker A:You know what he's been saying lately?
Speaker B:What?
Speaker A:When I.
Speaker A:When I try to check him on something, or I'll be like, A.D. i'm coming.
Speaker A:Let me try to do this.
Speaker A:You know what he says?
Speaker B:You're not him.
Speaker A:Better.
Speaker A:You're not like that.
Speaker A:I'm like, you're not like that.
Speaker A:I'm like.
Speaker A:I'm like that.
Speaker A:I'm like that.
Speaker A:Let me show you how to do this math problem.
Speaker B:You know, at some point in time, he's.
Speaker B:He's gonna be like, hey, dad, you want me to listen to you?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Over there is a bar with 225 on it.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Put it up for 10.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker A:And I'm gonna do it.
Speaker A:Your boy's been getting after it.
Speaker B:225 for 10.
Speaker A:No, no, right now.
Speaker A:225 for 4.
Speaker A:For 4.
Speaker B:Flat bench.
Speaker B:Incline.
Speaker B:Bench or decline?
Speaker B:Bench.
Speaker A:A slight incline.
Speaker A:Very slight incline.
Speaker A:Just to take a little bit pressure off the shoulders.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:About decline.
Speaker B:More or less.
Speaker A:I don't do declines.
Speaker A:I don't have.
Speaker A:My bench doesn't go.
Speaker A:I do home gyms.
Speaker A:My bench doesn't do decline and that, but decline's always more, bro.
Speaker A:What are you talking about?
Speaker A:That's a cheap.
Speaker A:Yes, it is.
Speaker A:If you can't do more, I mean, there's some problems.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:But 225 for 4 right now.
Speaker A:I was actually kind of impressed, but I did feel a little bit of joint pain, like, in my, like, tennis elbow.
Speaker B:I'm having a lot of joint pain lately, man.
Speaker B:I don't want to talk about it because.
Speaker B:Made me feel old.
Speaker A:But I've been.
Speaker A:But I've been on the creatine again.
Speaker A:Consistently.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And the studies have been out, dude, that, like, I know.
Speaker A:For a long time I was like, everyone's good.
Speaker A:Just take 5 milligrams.
Speaker A:You don't need more than 5 milligrams.
Speaker A:But for some people, it should.
Speaker A:It might be 10 milligrams.
Speaker B:I. I pretty much live off of caffeine and creatine.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So cnc.
Speaker A:The creatine's been helping out a little bit.
Speaker A:With the soreness, the recovery.
Speaker B:Sensational.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You should be on IGF one like me.
Speaker B:I know I'm on all the gears.
Speaker A:But I can't pay for all the gears right now.
Speaker A:That's the problem.
Speaker A:One day.
Speaker B:One day you wouldn't have up that Transcend sponsorship.
Speaker A:Me.
Speaker A:I know it's my fault.
Speaker A:They look, they watch the episode.
Speaker A:They're like this.
Speaker A:Why?
Speaker B:How does he have the before and after photo?
Speaker B:Talking to each other.
Speaker A:That was the.
Speaker A:That was the draw, right?
Speaker A:You could either be this or that.
Speaker B:They stepped up from us.
Speaker B:They got like the world's strongest man on there now.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:I'm like Bradley Martin.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I'm like.
Speaker B:I feel like they might be a bit of an upgrade.
Speaker A:They still got a. I think they.
Speaker B:Have Brendan shop to Shaw on Transcend.
Speaker A:I think so.
Speaker B:It wouldn't surprise me.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:So, shocking stat of the day from the Kobese letter was, in fact, shocking.
Speaker B: st, the highest since June of: Speaker B:This figure has doubled in just four months over the last 40 years.
Speaker B: centage was higher, including: Speaker B:By comparison, the unemployment rate for women rose to about 7.1% last month, in line with historical levels.
Speaker B: hest in nine years outside of: Speaker B:2021.
Speaker A:In front of you, he's like, unemployment rate for women rose 7 to 7.1%.
Speaker A:But hold on.
Speaker A:It's in line with historical numbers.
Speaker A:Don't get.
Speaker B:Well, the math here doesn't make sense.
Speaker B:So young men are being hit hardest in the labor market slowdown.
Speaker B:The Fred data, as our friend Rajeel picked up here, here's a problem that I have with this.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:All right.
Speaker B:On its surface, it sounds shocking in and of itself because there's big numbers here, but I'm going to throw some numbers out to you in a more truncated fashion.
Speaker A:Okay?
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:Number one, unemployment rate for men age 16 to 24, 13.8%.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Number two, unemployment rate for all women rose to 7.1%.
Speaker A:All women.
Speaker B:All women.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker B:And unemployment rate for overall Youth unemployment rate, 10.5%.
Speaker B:How the fuck do you get to tip 4.5%?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Hold on.
Speaker B:I can do math, bro.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's true.
Speaker B:Like, this is from Fred data.
Speaker B:This is from the Federal Reserve.
Speaker B:I am very confused.
Speaker B:So if you're telling me that you took men between the ages of 16 and 24.
Speaker B:So that means men from 35 to 44 are like at a 2% unemployment rate or something.
Speaker A:Yeah, that or one.
Speaker B:I mean, you got.
Speaker B:You're talking 7%, 13%.
Speaker B:And this is why they're 10.5.
Speaker A:This is why their numbers always need to be revised.
Speaker B:I'm just.
Speaker B:I'm just.
Speaker B:I'm confused.
Speaker A:I'm a little confused.
Speaker A:Trying to make sense of it in real time.
Speaker B:Please.
Speaker B:I'll wait.
Speaker A:No, yeah, no, let's not do that.
Speaker A:Give.
Speaker A:Give some time to think about it.
Speaker B:As a matter of fact, I will give you some incentives.
Speaker B:Yeah, it doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever.
Speaker B:But that.
Speaker B:That's interesting.
Speaker B:What's even more interesting, American workers are in fact working less hours.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Which aren't.
Speaker A:Are not being factored into this unemployment rate.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:So US average weekly hours worked hit 34.2, one of the lowest readings since the great financial crisis.
Speaker B:And I know it's easy for anyone to say, hey, guys.
Speaker A:Hey.
Speaker B:That means people are less stressed because they're working less hours.
Speaker A:No sleep.
Speaker A:Stop.
Speaker B:You should be happy that American workers are working less hours.
Speaker A:Ridiculous.
Speaker B:Side.
Speaker B:Care to break it down?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:That would just mean they're not making enough to make ends meet.
Speaker A:They're having to rely more on credit cards.
Speaker A:That's why household debt is at an all time high.
Speaker A:And if anything, cortisol levels are probably through the roof.
Speaker B:Shout out to Ghost Orange Cream.
Speaker B:Yeah, keep my cortisol level.
Speaker B:But let me give something else to think about why we're having this conversation.
Speaker B:History shows that when hours drop this low, layoffs often, often follow.
Speaker B:You know what layoffs often follow as well.
Speaker A:What?
Speaker B:M and A activity, baby.
Speaker A:Look at that.
Speaker A:You tying it all together.
Speaker B:Tying all big ribbon on top.
Speaker A:You're a professional, bro.
Speaker B:I'm out here, bro.
Speaker B:More layoffs coming to this market, I can guarantee you.
Speaker B:Look at the chart that Rejeel pulled up.
Speaker B:You got two times that are circled that are similar.
Speaker B:The great financial crisis.
Speaker B: The: Speaker B:And today.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:That is when you have hours that have been this low.
Speaker B:Do I give you any more circumstances?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:And you can explain it too, given the previous C suite position that you carried for a long time.
Speaker B:Was it so sweet?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:The suite.
Speaker B:Yeah, the space.
Speaker A:The space.
Speaker A:Sorry.
Speaker A:The.
Speaker A:The reason why they wouldn't just lay off.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Because it takes time to have to rehire people.
Speaker A:So what they're going to do first is cut hours first.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And keep you around until they realize, okay, no, we really don't need, you know, all these people, let's let them go.
Speaker A:And especially if they cut that cost, what does that do to operational costs?
Speaker A:What does that do to their earnings?
Speaker A:What does that.
Speaker A:That helps out.
Speaker A:You know what I mean it.
Speaker A:For, for some companies out there, especially some of these ghost companies, these zombie companies, I mean it, it delays the inevitable just a little bit longer.
Speaker B:Well, just when you think it's these guys are negative and doom and gloom, we're gonna get a little more doomy and gloomy.
Speaker A:A little more Rubini, a little more Norieli.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Noriel.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:The top 10 stocks now reflect a record 41% of the S&P 500's market cap.
Speaker B:Not in and of itself.
Speaker B:Super shocking because we know about the MAG7, but.
Speaker B:But this share has risen about 6 percentage points over the last five months.
Speaker B:This comes as their combined market value has skyrocketed by $8 trillion over this period.
Speaker B:The MAG7, which we often talk about on the show, stocks alone now make up for a record 35% of the index.
Speaker B: By comparison, in January of: Speaker B:Tech stocks effectively are the stock market.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:The chart that Regil is pulling up shows you the top 10 U.S. stocks command record.
Speaker B:I'm sorry, what percentage is that?
Speaker A:41%.
Speaker B:41% of the S&P 500 market cap.
Speaker B:And those are all tech stocks, which.
Speaker A:Scares me a great deal.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Because it's like, okay, I don't want to get close to a dot com bubble crash.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And this is the closest thing to.
Speaker B:It that we've experienced since then.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, that we experienced this.
Speaker A:And that could easily be taken away from us like that.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:I mean, when the cyborgs come online.
Speaker B:Skynet's live, right?
Speaker A:I mean, we, I think I, I read, I read a report last week or maybe two weeks ago that if Meta by themselves were to completely pause the amount of money that they're dumping into these data center spaces or just what they've been putting into AI that in and of itself by them pausing the money that putting in would cause a recession.
Speaker A:Just pausing.
Speaker B:Can you imagine being Zuckerberg?
Speaker A:That's a lot of power, bro.
Speaker B:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:He's basically skeletor.
Speaker A:That and.
Speaker A:Yeah, and then they had that, they had that whole meeting.
Speaker B:That sound you guys heard in the background, I don't know if it came through or not.
Speaker B:That was one of my alerts from.
Speaker B:From the app on the home prices.
Speaker A:Oh, was it?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:36 Oakdale Irvine.
Speaker B:1.65 million.
Speaker B:Four bedrooms, two bath.
Speaker A:Dang.
Speaker B:I'm playing.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So you're looking.
Speaker A:Are you just messing with the.
Speaker B:No, those are the alert from like four years ago.
Speaker B:They just can't come back online because home prices dropped.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker B:That nobody wants to admit to.
Speaker B:That Dropped.
Speaker A:That nobody wants to admit to.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So you're looking upsize or not?
Speaker A:You think.
Speaker A:You think you might get a good deal?
Speaker B:I'm poor.
Speaker A:I think we have a different definition of poor.
Speaker B:I am.
Speaker B:I'm under a great degree of stress.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker A:I need Cedrin.
Speaker A:Don't need.
Speaker A:How about some Tylenol?
Speaker B:Can I offer you iPhone 17 Pro Max dog?
Speaker B:Come on.
Speaker A:Did you see?
Speaker A:Did you see?
Speaker A:Oh, it hasn't come in yet.
Speaker B:No, it's at home right now.
Speaker A:Did you see Donald Trump try to try to pronounce it too, when he's giving a speech?
Speaker A:Whatever Tylenol is supposed to be.
Speaker A:He's like.
Speaker A:He could.
Speaker A:He's like.
Speaker A:Is that how you say the word?
Speaker A:Is that how you say it?
Speaker B:I cannot comment on a political matter.
Speaker A:Come on, man.
Speaker A:We can make light of the situation, bro.
Speaker B:Cannot make light of a situation without encouraging politics, apparently.
Speaker B:So I'm going to say that's what I'm doing.
Speaker A:I'm just going to come on every show and just try to bait you with all this.
Speaker B:That is a very humorous observation.
Speaker A:How do you feel about Jimmy Kimmel?
Speaker B:That is also a very humorous observation.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Who is this Mr. Kimmel you speak of?
Speaker A:Who is this guy?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:Is he the owner of Kimmel and Bits?
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:So there's another indicator which I've watched closely for some time that we don't talk a whole lot about on the show.
Speaker B:It's actually got an entire website allocated to it.
Speaker B:The current market valuation.comlink will be in the show notes on every platform.
Speaker B:This is the Buffett indicator.
Speaker B:We don't talk a whole lot about it.
Speaker B:This is kind of those indicators.
Speaker B:It's been like me, but it's very easily to quantify.
Speaker B:The numbers are solid and consistent and it's because it's market driven and GDP driven.
Speaker B:You just have solid places to look.
Speaker B:So this is the Buffett indicator, AKA the Buffett index, AKA the Buffett ratio, AKA Buff Diddy.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Not to be confused with Kramer.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Or the reverse Kramer.
Speaker B:Oh, the reverse Kramer is the ratio of total United States stock market to GDP it just hit 217%.
Speaker B:And I know you're saying, chris, what the fuck does that mean?
Speaker B:Well, allow me to explain.
Speaker A:What does it mean, Chris?
Speaker B:Approximately 69% above trend.
Speaker B:The ratio fluctuates over time since the value of the stock market can be very volatile.
Speaker B:But GDP tends to grow much more predictably.
Speaker B:So the current ratio of 217% is approximately 68.63% or about 2.2 standard deviations above the historical trend line, suggesting that the stock market is strongly overvalued relative to gdp.
Speaker A:So what, what would make it, what percentage would make, have it be like in line?
Speaker B:Well, I'm glad you asked.
Speaker B:Rajeel, there's a chart for us to pull up here.
Speaker A:Bang.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And this chart shows you the, the normalized line and then shows you right there.
Speaker B:But see, here's the historical trend line right there.
Speaker B:The 2 over 2 standard deviation where we currently are at is, is a significant deviation.
Speaker B:Just to give you an idea, the great financial crisis.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Was a two and a half standard deviation black swan event.
Speaker B:You are in that deviation right now from a price perspective.
Speaker A:So you take the u. S. Total stock market value and divided by gdp.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker A: f you would have done that in: Speaker B:2021'S right here.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, it would have been, you would have been on the way.
Speaker A: No, that's: Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So pretty close.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:Here's the problem.
Speaker A:If you would have done that back then, you would have missed out on a whole lot of gains.
Speaker A:My only fear with doing that.
Speaker A:I know we do have some young listeners.
Speaker A:I always hear you guys talk about dollar cost averaging.
Speaker A:So I'm just going to wait for the market to completely fall off.
Speaker A:You don't do that before I start again.
Speaker A:No, the point is to.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:It's a lifelong journey.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So continue to.
Speaker A:If you're going to start putting in, just start putting in now.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And you're going to ride this wave regardless.
Speaker A:You're not gonna, you're not gonna try to pull it out every time or stop investing when you think that the market is, is peaking and you know some bad news.
Speaker A:Oh, I heard the higher standards say that some bad news has come around.
Speaker A:I know, I know the stock market's gonna take it.
Speaker B:We're a good news only show.
Speaker B:What are you talking about?
Speaker B:Yeah, have you heard any bad news tonight?
Speaker A:Yeah, you're very Roubini, bro.
Speaker A:Dr. Doom.
Speaker B:Yeah, he fell off, man.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So disappointing.
Speaker A:So disappointing.
Speaker A:Hey, man, there was a time where we were just.
Speaker B:He should have been blogging that whole time.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Snapchat.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Imagine trying to get paid.
Speaker B:Him and Larry Wheels.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Have his own Patreon, maybe.
Speaker A:Oh, man.
Speaker A:I'm in.
Speaker A:Five bucks.
Speaker A:I'm in.
Speaker B:I mean, hot tub time machine.
Speaker A:Done.
Speaker A:Are you kidding?
Speaker A:Imagine him giving financial advice from a hot tub.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:With a cigar.
Speaker A:I'm in with the glasses.
Speaker B:Patrick by Davidson next to him talking about how he's not a pyramid scheme.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:The Internet's coming for Patrick.
Speaker B:Hard, bro.
Speaker A:They are hard.
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker A:Really?
Speaker A:I mean, I, I understand the scheme, but like, why now?
Speaker A:All of a sudden?
Speaker B:I think people starting to figure it out and he.
Speaker B:So he sat down with like one of those debates where he's already made his money, bro.
Speaker B:I know.
Speaker B:That's the problem.
Speaker B:So he sat across from some kid and he did like one of those college style debates.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:It was, it was geared on capitalism.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And he's, he's very much pro capitalism.
Speaker B:And these kids just came in and picked him apart about like Coffee Zillow's expose on him and some other people.
Speaker B:I think it was Coffee Zillow.
Speaker B:But a lot of people who talked about him being a pyramid scheme and about how his companies make money and he just dipped, dodged up, dived and dodged.
Speaker B:Yeah, he was just trying.
Speaker A:Yeah, well, he went.
Speaker A:He did that because.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:What he's doing now is not what made him his money, is.
Speaker A:It was.
Speaker A:He was selling insurance before.
Speaker B:Yeah, well, they're saying that the most.
Speaker B:So somebody went through and did a look at his insurance company money and most of the money came from recruiting new agents, not from agent fees, not from insurance.
Speaker B:So that they just kept going back to that saying, you're a fan of capitalism, but you won't talk about how a pyramid scheme is not capitalism.
Speaker A:Oops.
Speaker B:Yeah, oopsies.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Convenient to be a capitalist when you get all the money from the scheme.
Speaker A:Now he's a minority owner in the Yankees.
Speaker B:I know.
Speaker B:I mean, look, he's got money you're not going to take.
Speaker A:Minority owner of the Yankees.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:That's crazy, man.
Speaker B:Yeah, I know.
Speaker B:Look, I get it.
Speaker B:I'm not, I'm not judging.
Speaker B:I'm just saying people were coming for him.
Speaker A:But he's not.
Speaker A:He hasn't even offered.
Speaker A:I haven't been following him.
Speaker A:He hasn't even offered to explain it.
Speaker B:No, he, he's just very.
Speaker A:He's or is he like, don't, don't.
Speaker A:If I neglect it, you won't address it head on.
Speaker B:Like, he, he does like the classic.
Speaker B:He's really, really good at debating the content and being like, I don't say arrogant, but certainly very confident in the way he answers things.
Speaker B:And the Internet's just not having it that people are like, no, answer the question.
Speaker B:No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
Speaker B:And I feel for guys like him because on one hand it's like, look like it's not illegal.
Speaker B:Pyramid schemes are not illegal.
Speaker B:You might look at them as like, you know, unethical or, you know, or questionable behavior, but they're not illegal.
Speaker A:I've seen some of their stuff though.
Speaker A:They, they get into some really dicey topics on their show.
Speaker A:Yeah, it gets a little spicy on their.
Speaker B:You think I'm a, I'm a potty mouth?
Speaker A:Yeah, no, it gets pretty spicy on there with some of their topics.
Speaker B:Yeah, I know they do, they do go hard.
Speaker B:And then he gets real assertive on his opinion on some of this stuff and I'm just like, yeah, maybe walk that back.
Speaker B:Minority owner, right?
Speaker B:You know?
Speaker A:Yeah, be careful.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker B:You guys, you got some intellectual property protect over there, dog.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Yeah, but yeah, you know, whatever.
Speaker A:Okay, well, he's always welcome on here to open up if he wants to talk about it.
Speaker B:I've reached out to these people before.
Speaker B:I got no responses.
Speaker A:Yeah, they want you to pay for that minute consulting thing that he's got.
Speaker B:Connect.
Speaker B:They did refer me to Minecraft.
Speaker B:They did.
Speaker A:That was.
Speaker A:Bro, what a scam.
Speaker A:Bro.
Speaker B:That's a scam.
Speaker A:That's a hardcore scam.
Speaker A:Listen, we're not going to charge you by the hour.
Speaker A:We'll just charge you by the minute.
Speaker A:Yeah, that way you don't get over that way you don't overpay.
Speaker B:Can I be real about some.
Speaker B:Yeah, I want to, I just want to say this right now.
Speaker A:Keep it real.
Speaker B:We've all at some point in time seen somebody on the Internet talking about how they paid Alex Hermosi or they paid Grant Cardone like a hundred thousand dollars or half a million dollars.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker A:What, what are they paying for?
Speaker B:For like I sat with him for a day, I paid him half a million dollars.
Speaker B:So Alexi does, you know, they're actually.
Speaker A:Taking their people's money for that.
Speaker B:You heard the story.
Speaker A:No, I thought, I thought, okay, if like you're in vet.
Speaker A:If you're, let's just say one of the investors in one of his syndicated deals, he'll like sit down and talk to you.
Speaker B:Oh, no, no, no.
Speaker A:He's taking consulting.
Speaker B:Alex, her mosey has famously said that he paid Grant Cardone like half a million dollars or something like that to sit with him.
Speaker B:And he got some of the best life of of his advice, which is what my beef with her mosi has always been.
Speaker A:Is that where that thing was going around where people were like, would you, would you take 500 grand or have.
Speaker B:One night with my wife or have dinner?
Speaker B:Is that the conversation?
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:500 grand or have dinner or have dinner with Jay Z.
Speaker A:See, he's heard it, and that was different.
Speaker A:And then Jay Z was like, y' all the money.
Speaker A:Y' all are all idiots.
Speaker A:Take the freaking money.
Speaker A:One dinner with me ain't gonna solve your problems.
Speaker B:That's the first honest person ever.
Speaker B:But the problem was, is like, so, like, Alex Hermosi has literally said many times that that Grant Cardone is where he started.
Speaker B:And Grant Cardone told him, like, he paid him some crazy ass amount of money, and then he went and spent the day with him and, you know, took notes real quick.
Speaker B:And he's the only guy who ever left early from Grant Cardone.
Speaker B:And Grant Cardone like, takes great pride in his, like, growth, which is why I look at@likeacutive.com and I'm like, what do y' all really do?
Speaker A:Yeah, what is it?
Speaker A:I don't even know.
Speaker A:I don't even know what he does.
Speaker A:I know he's, I know he's promoted a couple books.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And look, I I.
Speaker B:Good for you.
Speaker B:Your books are sensational, and they're doing really well, but what do they do?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Don't love your job, job your love.
Speaker B:Chris job, your love said.
Speaker A:I love influencers, bro.
Speaker A:That.
Speaker A:That's his wife, right?
Speaker A:I think that's hormones wife, bro.
Speaker A:I'm like, what's going on?
Speaker A:What the does that mean?
Speaker A:What does that mean?
Speaker A:And then, and then that.
Speaker A:And then the jerk that's sitting across from her.
Speaker B:I love, I love that.
Speaker A:I love that.
Speaker B:I love that for you.
Speaker A:Hey, hey, do me a favor.
Speaker A:I want to curse some.
Speaker B:I did an annual review.
Speaker A:In a real company.
Speaker A:Honestly, I don't, I don't just love my job.
Speaker B:I job, my love I job, my.
Speaker A:Love for you people jobbing.
Speaker A:I'm jobbing right now.
Speaker B:That's the part we've got to this guru culture.
Speaker B:People say that makes no sense.
Speaker A:Here's my thing.
Speaker B:Oh, my God.
Speaker A:Here's my thing.
Speaker A:I mean, did she had to have run that by him, right?
Speaker A:No, she had to be like, hey, honey, I got.
Speaker A:I got a new slogan for us.
Speaker B:No, the best part was, after the show, no one was like, yo, you gonna.
Speaker B:You edit that out?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:No one was like.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And that guy was like, oh, this is it for me.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:He's like, oh, fuck, that's.
Speaker B:That's real right there.
Speaker A:That's viral.
Speaker B:Put that shit on the Internet.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's it.
Speaker B:Let that go round and round.
Speaker A:Yeah, but he should have.
Speaker A:You should have slow played.
Speaker A:Come on, man.
Speaker A:What are you doing?
Speaker A:You just killed you off your own.
Speaker B:Dude made like.
Speaker B:Like a.
Speaker B:Like a house mix for that.
Speaker A:I love it.
Speaker A:I did.
Speaker A:I saw he was dancing.
Speaker B:Job, your love.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:What do.
Speaker A:What do DJs even do?
Speaker A:And then they just remixed it.
Speaker B:That's the Internet culture for you, man.
Speaker B:Well, we're not going to do better than that, so.
Speaker B:Job, your love, everybody, and make sure.
Speaker A:You get all the incentives.
Speaker B:Good night, everybody.
Speaker A:Okay, bye.
Speaker A:Bye.
