The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released on Thursday, and while the increases are not large, they do fall in line with predictions. In June, the CPI was 9.1%, in July it dropped slightly to 8.5%, and in August 8.3%. Then in September, it was 8.2%. This doesn't seem bad, until you realize that in the last 12 months, gasoline has risen by 18.2%, household energy by 20.8% and airfare by an eye-watering 42.9%
In today's episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied do a deep dive into these CPI numbers and what they mean for the ongoing fight against inflation.
They discuss the thinking from various pundits and talking heads, who mistakenly believe they recognize the mistakes being made by the Fed as well as what it should and should not do.
Chris and Saied look at recent comments by Ray Dalio, the founder, Co-Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates, in which he has warned of a "perfect storm" that will spread economic pain as the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates. He also said that government stimulus programs during the pandemic have created a bubble.
They discuss a recent article from Forbes reporting that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its forecast for the global economy next year and warned inflation will be worse than previously expected due largely to the ongoing disruptions spurred by the war on Ukraine.
Chris and Saied also explore another article claiming that, as home sales fall to the lowest level in years, a rash of industries tied to the housing market are starting to show signs of deterioration, with home builders, appliance makers and some retailers among those likely to take the biggest hit.
Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating conversation.
What You’ll Learn in this Show:
- The most recent PPI and CPI numbers and what that means for consumers in light of rising inflation.
- Why, for the Fed, the cost of doing too little to curb inflation outweighs the cost of doing too much.
- Why the IMF has downgraded its forecast for the global economy next year and what effects that will bring.
- What’s driving the current housing market correction in several major markets.
- And so much more...
"Where Inflation Is... and Isn't" (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)
"PepsiCo Raises Forecasts After Q3 Boosted by Higher Prices" (article from US News)
"Bridgewater's Dalio warns of a 'perfect storm' for economy" (article from Reuters)
"Home prices are falling fastest in these 10 U.S. cities" (article from CBS News)
"MBA: Mortgage Credit Availability was Never Excessive During the Recent Housing Boom" (article from CalculatedRISK)
"S.Korea delivers another big hike but offers dovish hints" (article from Reuters)
"Highest Availability Ever Reported for LA Office Space" (The Real Deal via Instagram)
"Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes" (article from CNBC)
"Social Security recipients get 8.7% cost-of-living increase, the highest in more than 40 years" (article from Invest Ahead)