A 100% Probability of Recession, Zillow Fumbles the Bag and Q&A

This week several reports are being delivered, including the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey, the National Association of Homebuilder's Housing Market Index, the Fed's industrial production data for September and the latest Beige Book on current economic conditions among its 12 districts, as well as the Census Bureau's new residential construction data for September. The predictions for these reports range from 'no change' to 'really bad.'

In today's episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied discuss the one report that has already been released, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and the 'modest decline' being seen in manufacturing in the state.

They discuss a recent presentation by National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, who predicted that interest rates could be on their way to 8.5% if they pass a threshold of 7%, basing his forecast on key levels of resistance borrowing costs will face after a key inflation indicator hit a 40-year high.

Chris and Saied look at Bloomberg's prediction that a US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months, representing a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.

They discuss a new House Prices to National Average Wage Index created by CalculatedRisk to address the difficulties of comparing the ratio of house prices to incomes, when most income data is released with a significant lag.

Chris and Saied also explore Zillow's bold (and deeply flawed) prediction that the so-called pandemic housing boom would see U.S. home prices soar another 17.8% between February 2022 and February 2023.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

• Why NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun's prediction that interest rates could be on their way to 8.5% if they pass a threshold of 7% is more a statement of the obvious than a real look at the future.
• Bloomberg's prediction that a US recession is basically a done deal within the next 12 months, which is not what President Biden wants to hear this close to the midterms.
• The insights gained from CalculatdRisk's new House Prices to National Average Wage Index.
• Zillow's discombobulated reporting concerning house prices, and why there is likely a specific reason behind it.
• And so much more...

Resources:

"Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden" (article from Bloomberg)

"Mortgage rates could continue rise to 8.5%: NAR" (article from TheRealDeal)

"Stocks Poised to Open Higher on Monday" (article from Barron's)

"House Prices to National Average Wage Index" (article from CalculatedRisk)

"Empire State Manufacturing Survey" (article from the New York Federal Reserve)

"Where home prices in your local housing market are headed in 2023, according to Zillow’s revised forecast" (article from Fortune)

"Latest US inflation data raises questions about Fed’s interest rate hikes" (article from The Guardian)

"The newest Nobel-winning economist lays out 2 reasons the US is 'really exposed' to a financial crisis" (article from Insider)

"Cathie Wood's Ark Sends Open Letter to the Fed" (The Street via Instagram)

"Consumer spending was flat in September and below expectations as inflation takes toll" (article from CNBC)

"It’s bad enough mortgage rates are over 7% – now it’s harder to qualify for a home loan" (article from CNBC)