Broken Data, Job Cuts & The Wealth Secrets the Rich Don’t Want You to Know
In this episode, Chris, Saied and Rajeil dive face-first into the chaos Washington left behind after the longest government shutdown in U.S. history — and surprise, surprise: the data we rely on to understand the economy might be "permanently broken." With CPI and jobs reports delayed, distorted, or potentially never released at all, the guys unpack what happens when policymakers, investors, and everyday Americans are flying blind. Add in whispers of shadow revisions, missing reports, and political spin, and suddenly “the data is fake” feels less like a meme and more like a macroeconomic red flag.
➡️ But that’s not all. The job market is flashing warnings, the housing market is handing out 50-year mortgages like party favors, and the government’s “we’ll fix it later” approach is aging about as well as a warm gas station sushi roll. Chris and Saied strip away the noise, break down the numbers, and ask the uncomfortable questions no one else wants to touch. If you’re tired of sugar-coated narratives and want the real story behind the headlines, this episode is your financial reality check — delivered with the usual THS wit, skepticism, and a couple of perfectly timed eye rolls.
💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?
📩 NEWSLETTER: https://tr.ee/O6FWkv
👕 THS MERCH: http://www.thspod.com
🔗 Resources:
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures slip as longest government shutdown in history nears end (Yahoo! Finance)
Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)
Boston Fed's Collins: The bar for cutting rates further is 'relatively high,' sees holding for 'some time' (Yahoo! Finance)
Bostic announces retirement amid Trump push for more influence over Fed (Reuters)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.
Transcript
You're not ready.
Speaker B:I'm ready.
Speaker A:You know.
Speaker A:You know, House is ready.
Speaker A:Lakers are up 20 to start the game.
Speaker A:No, I got the scoreboard that just.
Speaker A:Look at this.
Speaker A:It's just up here permanently.
Speaker B:That's the thing, you know, you got an addiction problem, right?
Speaker A:It's not.
Speaker A:No, I'm tribal.
Speaker A:This is tribal.
Speaker B:It's not tribal.
Speaker B:You are part of the culture that's enabling a bad culture of sports betting.
Speaker A:Why?
Speaker B:You're the sports.
Speaker A:It's the last true form of art.
Speaker B:I heard something today.
Speaker B:True story.
Speaker B:This is real.
Speaker B:I heard something today that more people are, quote, investing in sports betting than investing in actual, you know, investments now.
Speaker A:Oh, I believe it.
Speaker A:Yeah, I believe that.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker A:Shall we?
Speaker B:Yeah, why not?
Speaker A:Oh, let's start the timer.
Speaker B:Probably good to make sure we don't go over the clock.
Speaker B:Although we don't have a tendency to go over as much as we used to.
Speaker A:No, we do.
Speaker A:Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world.
Speaker A:This is the higher standard.
Speaker A:Sitting in front of me in the higher standard merch is my partner in crime, Christopher.
Speaker B:He.
Speaker B:Hello, everyone.
Speaker A:Hello.
Speaker B:Hello.
Speaker B:Sitting across me, my partner in time, the one, the only, the chocolatey brown side, Omar.
Speaker A:Thank you, my man.
Speaker A:And sitting behind the desk in the production suite, if you will, the fighting Pagean Regil.
Speaker A:What's up, my guy?
Speaker A:Greetings, everyone.
Speaker A:Greetings, everyone.
Speaker B:Actually, because I'm being erroneously sued for being a racist, I just want to point out that you're wearing chocolate brown sweater tonight.
Speaker B:That was not a reference to your skin color.
Speaker A:Thank you for noticing.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:Which is very nice.
Speaker B:All.
Speaker A:Also, it's all.
Speaker A:All the complexions are nice.
Speaker A:We're going to start off the show with a little shout out to our boy, C. West.
Speaker A:He requested a double camp pop.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker B:There you go, America.
Speaker B:Shout out to Andy.
Speaker A:Shout out to Andy.
Speaker B:First form.
Speaker A:Cheers.
Speaker B:Thank you, buddy.
Speaker A:My kids decided to cheers in front of their grandparents the other day.
Speaker A:I was like.
Speaker A:They're like, oh, what's that?
Speaker A:Where'd you guys learn that?
Speaker A:I'm like, well, yeah, yeah, sorry, yeah.
Speaker B:This little trip down memory lane, you might remember, shows that we couldn't actually air the alcohol drinking part.
Speaker A:This is between me and my friends, my guys nights.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:They learned that from guys nights.
Speaker A:All right, so we got a lot to discuss in today's episode.
Speaker A:Later in the show, we're going to talk about.
Speaker A:Usually when we talk about wealth, a lot of people like to discuss how much money you make, but it's really not about that.
Speaker A:It has a lot more to do with things that you invest in and how that changes your, I guess, balance sheet over time as your wealth continues to grow.
Speaker A:But first, what we're going to dive into is we got an update on the government shutdown.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Tonight actually 43 days, it is officially over.
Speaker B:The House has passed it.
Speaker B:The Senate passed.
Speaker B:At first the House was the only laggard in, in coming out and voting.
Speaker B:And then obviously the president slots to sign this, but I think the overwhelming assumption is that he's going to.
Speaker B:So by the time you guys hear this next Tuesday, this we're recording on Wednesday 12th November, this should be a past history foregone conclusion, but the ramifications of it are going to reverberate.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:And the narrative is being controlled early.
Speaker B:Very, very early.
Speaker B:And as much as Saeed and I don't like to get political when it.
Speaker A:Comes to finance, so, buddy, I feel like every show we give out this disclaimer.
Speaker A:Yeah, we don't like to get political.
Speaker A:We try, but it just, it's intertwined.
Speaker B:The good news is I had to submit.
Speaker B:This is a true story.
Speaker B:And for those of you who don't understand the complexities and nuances of being in a not free society when it comes to freedom of speech and advertising, we had to submit for a political ad certificate.
Speaker B:And because the Google account that I use for ads is the legacy one that I use for my original YouTube account, which is under my individual name, you can't swap it to a business name because Black Crown Inc.
Speaker B:Owns the trademark for the higher standard, which my company and the higher standard trademark is intellectual property.
Speaker B:Can, you know, wholly owned by this entity.
Speaker B:I could not say that they were advertising.
Speaker B:So it has to be Chris's advertising.
Speaker B:So me as an attorney individually, maybe.
Speaker A:I should do it.
Speaker A:Does my political science degree at all help with any of this?
Speaker B:I have no idea.
Speaker B:But I just met my passport, my driver's license, my birth certificate to Google.
Speaker B:Let me tell you right now, I do not feel safe with that at Google.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And what's worse, submitting that stuff to Google or to.
Speaker A:What was that DNA company, 23andMe, who's lost it.
Speaker B:Honestly, 23andMe makes me feel a whole lot better.
Speaker B:Really?
Speaker A:They lost their whole board.
Speaker A:The whole board walked out.
Speaker A:They're like, we're out of here.
Speaker B:Steal my genetics, it's fine.
Speaker B:When you steal my financial stuff, it's a problem.
Speaker A:It could be a problem.
Speaker B:So the good news is because we apply for that Certificate.
Speaker B:It should not mean that we get flagged for saying things that we shouldn't say with advertisers being concerned because it's all sponsored by me.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker A:By Christopher.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So let's get into a little bit of the stock market today.
Speaker B:We're going to talk about some, some interesting topics like side reference broken data obviously a huge part of this government shutdown.
Speaker B:Job cuts and then the wealth secrets that the rich really don't want you to know.
Speaker B:And there is a surprise ending at the end of the show which is also our way of saying listen to the whole goddamn show.
Speaker A:Yeah, you're gonna.
Speaker A:You'll appreciate it especially for those that want to continue to learn and grow and we have some exciting stuff for the future that maybe when we get to that part of the show we can.
Speaker B:Yeah, it was a good.
Speaker A:Yeah, we can tease a little bit.
Speaker B:That's a good little.
Speaker A:We can tickle.
Speaker B:Hey, we're gonna change in a way that you need.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But you don't know.
Speaker A:But it's good for you.
Speaker B:It's good for you.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Trust us.
Speaker A:Take it and go.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B:According to Yahoo Finance stock market today the Dow The S&P 500 Nasdaq futures slip as the longest government shutdown in history has officially come to an end.
Speaker B:A bill ending the recording a record length 43 days government shutdown looks set to be passed into law.
Speaker B:It was by the House.
Speaker B:So this tonight, this late this evening.
Speaker B:President Trump would also be the last holdout here and will need to sign the measure soon afterward.
Speaker B: billion lower by the end of: Speaker B:I apologize side and I had done some rough math earlier.
Speaker B:On a previous show you may have heard us say about 14 billion.
Speaker B:So we weren't far off.
Speaker B:Just 4 billion.
Speaker A:Just 3 billion.
Speaker B:A couple billies.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:But yeah.
Speaker B:So it's going to have a measurable impact on GDP in two successive quarters of negative GDP growth.
Speaker A:Means they need.
Speaker A:It's a declared recession according to the old definition.
Speaker A:Now we got to assume that this administration wants to adopt the old administration.
Speaker A:I don't think so.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:It's going to be different.
Speaker B:It's going to.
Speaker B:I don't think they're going to adopt anything.
Speaker B:I, I think this administration is already out way, way early on the excuse making.
Speaker A:It's really interesting how they're, they're wanting to highlight the term gdp.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So there's going to be episodes that we do in the future where we say, hey, this might be a little conspiratorial.
Speaker B:Put on a tinfoil hat.
Speaker B:This particular episode, I'm going to tell you right now, well, yeah, we got a lot going on.
Speaker B:And with the stuff going on, you could come to conclusions about conspiracies or you could accept it for truth.
Speaker B:We're going to give you the facts and let you judge what you come up with in between.
Speaker A:I mean, what, what really bothered me with this whole entire shutdown.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Is ultimately the deal that was official, you know, officially taken by both parties was the deal that was on the table from day one.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker A:And it, there was no real mention that a primary motivator was the 40 some odd million people that were on SNAP benefits.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:This deal's primarily getting done because of delayed flights and cancellations around the holidays.
Speaker A:It's that simple.
Speaker B:But it was brilliant.
Speaker B:Whether you believe or not in the political end result, the execution, in the timeline of this all happening to put pressure on people using the holidays and the American public as weapons and tools.
Speaker A:Yep.
Speaker B:To get politically what they wanted done was almost a master class in manipulation.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And for, for the listeners out there that maybe weren't as plugged in because all you cared about was, are we in a shutdown?
Speaker A:Is it, are employees still furloughed or not?
Speaker A:What's going on?
Speaker A:You know, the, the main, the main thing that they were fighting over was Obamacare subsidies being extended.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:And so that vote isn't coming.
Speaker A:They're, they're going to vote on that in December.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:So.
Speaker A:And this funding bill is only going to get us through end of January.
Speaker A:Don't be surprised if we end up right here again at the end of January.
Speaker B:Kind of like the debt ceiling.
Speaker B:We always raise that.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:90 times now almost.
Speaker B:You know, it's becoming a reoccurring problem.
Speaker B:So we didn't really solve anything besides just getting us through the holidays so that human capital pressure goes a little bit farther left.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:It's not like it's, it's, we're not moving the needle here of significant measure.
Speaker B:It's like you, you knowing that your wife knows something else she'll get mad at you about.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:But you saying, let's get to the holidays, baby.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Well, listen.
Speaker B:In January.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And hope.
Speaker A:Hopefully you like, hopefully you like the Christmas present that I get you.
Speaker B:You Know the Christmas present ain't gonna change the fact that you did what you did, boy.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You know what Saeed did, right?
Speaker A:What I do.
Speaker A:I didn't do anything.
Speaker B:He lied about knowing what pornhub was.
Speaker A:I don't know what that is.
Speaker B:You do.
Speaker A:I have no idea what that is.
Speaker B:I just got us flagged.
Speaker B:You.
Speaker B:Damn it.
Speaker B:I can't say do that because there's so many.
Speaker A:Okay, why are timestamp that and beep it out.
Speaker A:It's not.
Speaker B:I'm not.
Speaker A:No, beep it out.
Speaker A:We're trying to grow the show, man.
Speaker B:I know we're trying to grow the show.
Speaker B:Why can't we just use words?
Speaker A:No, you can't, because they won't let you.
Speaker B:Why don't the settings matter?
Speaker A:They know we can't.
Speaker B:All right, fine.
Speaker B:We'll bleep it out.
Speaker B:Thank you.
Speaker B:Those of you know, we're talking about.
Speaker B:I'll spell it for you at the end of the show.
Speaker A:Surprise.
Speaker B:Yeah, surprise.
Speaker B:Government data is a point of concern for investors in the aftermath of this shutdown, as many of the reports initially delayed by the closure will, quote, be permanently impaired.
Speaker B:End quote.
Speaker B:The White House said Wednesday the Consumer Price Index and jobs reports for October are set to be the key releases impacted.
Speaker B:And of course, the narrative and the PR around this got out early.
Speaker B:So, Regil, if you could tee up our video here, we're.
Speaker B:Jill's gonna play a little video from Carolyn Levitt.
Speaker B:She's the White House press secretary and she addressed, well, the media today.
Speaker B:And give me a full screen there.
Speaker B:Hit play.
Speaker B:Let's hear what she has to say.
Speaker B:The Democrats may have permanently damaged the.
Speaker A:Federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released.
Speaker B:And all of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed flying blinds at a critical period.
Speaker B:Okay, that seems like a real convenient timeline.
Speaker A:I got so much to say about this.
Speaker A:Oh, please do.
Speaker A:Do you think Caroline's listening to the show?
Speaker B:I.
Speaker B:For sure she is.
Speaker B:Her.
Speaker B:And JP's it down.
Speaker A:Okay, so, I mean, what.
Speaker A:What is the insinuation?
Speaker A:Is the insinuation that if the.
Speaker A:If the data points were released, they would have been so bad that the.
Speaker A:That the Fed would have cut 50 basis points?
Speaker A:75.
Speaker A:What do you.
Speaker A:Because they did cut 25 basis points.
Speaker A:All right, and then on top of that, the next Fed meeting is on December 10th.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:So when the government reopens again, they're going to release this jobs report.
Speaker A:They'll have it by the next meeting.
Speaker A:Also by the next, by the next Fed meeting, they will have a fresh jobs report because the jobs report is produced the first Friday of every month.
Speaker A:So they'll have the November jobs report and they'll have the updated and revised October jobs report.
Speaker A:So what exactly are we saying?
Speaker A:They're not flying blind.
Speaker A:They're going to have all the data in front of them at their next meeting.
Speaker B:We just got quoted in the media.
Speaker B:Industry reacts the idea of 50 year mortgage.
Speaker B:Chris Nahibi, the host of the Higher Standard podcast, does not agree.
Speaker B:A 50 year mortgage does not solve the affordability crisis.
Speaker B:Blah, blah, blah, blah.
Speaker B:This from National Mortgage Professional.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker A:We're getting quoted.
Speaker B:We out here.
Speaker B:Celebrity.
Speaker B:That's from my.
Speaker B:That's from my ex account.
Speaker B:What's up, dog?
Speaker B:How you doing?
Speaker B:I'm a celebrity.
Speaker B:You want to autograph?
Speaker B:I got you.
Speaker B:You want to autograph?
Speaker B:Yeah, I got you.
Speaker A:After the show, I taught my son that trick that was going viral.
Speaker A:So my wife came home and he like, he said hi to his mom and he started walking up the stairs and he like dropped a piece of paper and had her like pick it up and give to him.
Speaker A:And he turned around and signed it.
Speaker B:All right, yeah, stud move.
Speaker B:All right, let me.
Speaker A:So you get my point though.
Speaker B:I get your.
Speaker A:They're going to have all the data points.
Speaker B:Let me frame something.
Speaker B:Okay, okay, allow me to retort.
Speaker B:If you are a Republican and you want to maintain the image of not being held responsible for bad things that may come in the future, you have now set yourself up for an absolute home run.
Speaker B:And the reason why is that even despite this narrative, if you were.
Speaker B:Again, this is tinfoil hat time.
Speaker B:Okay, granted, nothing to prove this, but let's just say you were in a position to know that there was a greater than not probability of a recessionary economy being declared in the not too distant future.
Speaker B:You know the jobs numbers are growing increasingly weaker.
Speaker B:And you know there's some dissension amongst the ranks at the fomc, the Federal Reserve, who makes the judgment calls as to when to cut rates.
Speaker B:And if the jobs numbers are getting weaker, it may put pressure on the cut rates.
Speaker B:But that also mean bigger weaknesses in the economy are forthcoming.
Speaker B:We know that a zero interest rate period may have caused a prolongated slow effect.
Speaker B:And there's lots of smarter people than us that work in the White House, that work for the National Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Speaker B:So you say to yourself, okay, a government shutdown has multiple benefits for us as an institution.
Speaker B:Number one, we get to lower the expense load of the nation by reducing our workforce.
Speaker A:Okay, 1.4 million government employees, Mr. Second Paycheck in October.
Speaker B:And look, Trump and his, his organization made no qualms about this might be a good thing and it might actually help, help us to reduce the overall debt load.
Speaker B:So this is not like me being conspiracy driven with that statement.
Speaker B:That statement's been made like that.
Speaker B:That was a known thing.
Speaker B:Number two, you say, okay, well, we know that a recession is likely looming.
Speaker B:We're not going to take responsibility for this.
Speaker B:We're going to point the finger any way we can besides that ourselves.
Speaker B:Because we want to say in the popular opinion right now, we control the House, we control the Senate, and we're in the executive branch.
Speaker B:So guess what?
Speaker B:Oh, the Democrats forced this shutdown.
Speaker B:Now we can't get accurate data.
Speaker B:Now the Fed, even, even with our guys there, we couldn't control.
Speaker B:They didn't have the data.
Speaker A:And this is.
Speaker A:Okay, this goes for everybody that's not a listener of the higher standard.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:Because our listeners, they know, just to.
Speaker B:Be clear, somebody who's not listening to the higher standard would be a listener of the higher standard if they listen to that statement, though.
Speaker B:So.
Speaker A:No, no, it's like.
Speaker A:No, but I'm saying, what I'm about to say is the people that get fooled with this narrative that, oh, because of the government shutdown, this is where we're at now.
Speaker A:No, that they're just reading headlines and they're thinking, one plus one equals two.
Speaker B:Right, that one plus one equals 11 site.
Speaker A:Yeah, one plus one equals 11.
Speaker A:That's, that's what, that's what, what's her name?
Speaker A:Caroline.
Speaker A:That's what Caroline's doing.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:To come out and openly say in a prepared remark that the Democrats are responsible for this, like out the gate, like you're just pointing fingers.
Speaker B:I mean, you didn't need to say that like, that.
Speaker B:That is not the place to say that.
Speaker A:No, it's not.
Speaker A:It's not.
Speaker A:It's definitely not.
Speaker B:But, and I'm not co signing one side or the other.
Speaker B:I'm just saying, like, you don't need to stigmatize a conversation that doesn't need a stigma to it.
Speaker A:Right, Exactly.
Speaker B:You know what I mean?
Speaker A:But for the, for the listener of the listeners of the show that know that the Fed in fact is not flying blind right at the, before their next meeting, they're going to have all the data that they need and, and the data that has been missing will be produced to them.
Speaker B:Not actually.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker B:What do you mean so that's what some of the references to quote will permanently be impaired means.
Speaker B:So the scuttlebutt, if you will.
Speaker A:Scuttle butt.
Speaker B:I'm out here with SAT vocabulary.
Speaker B:Keep up.
Speaker B:I'm here to enrich your mind.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:And your body cerebellum.
Speaker B:Mind pump.
Speaker A:My belt.
Speaker A:Mind pump.
Speaker B:The.
Speaker B:The idea is that some of the data that would have been collected will not be collected.
Speaker B:It would be futile to go back in time to collect that data.
Speaker B:So let's just focus on going forward.
Speaker A:Yeah, but I mean, hold on.
Speaker A:The data that was being collected was always being revised down anyways.
Speaker A:So let's not act like they were getting good data.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker B:But the decision making that's going to take place without that data is not going to change once the data actually comes out.
Speaker B:So it is irre.
Speaker B:Ir.
Speaker B:Irrevocably.
Speaker B:I can't say the word.
Speaker B:Irre.
Speaker B:Irrevocably.
Speaker B:There we go.
Speaker B:Irrevocably.
Speaker B:Irrevocably.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:It is a situation that will not be fixed anytime soon and the decisions are going to be made whether they come out or not.
Speaker B:So let's just say hypothetically the data isn't out by.
Speaker B:By December 10th.
Speaker B:The FOMC is still going to make a decision.
Speaker A:No, that one.
Speaker A:That's going to be out, bro.
Speaker A:That's going to be out.
Speaker A:Come on, what are we saying?
Speaker A:No, the government, the employee people working at the bls, they're going to be back in starting next week, right.
Speaker A:Which is, you know, tail second half of November and they're going to be able to produce at the bare minimum the November jobs report.
Speaker B:Okay, well let's just, let's go to the private sector.
Speaker A:Oh, adp.
Speaker B:Let's talk about privates.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker A:Not those kind of privates.
Speaker B:According to what privacy referring to?
Speaker B:Just be clear.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker B:You sounded like you knew Rajeel, did it sound.
Speaker A:I said adp.
Speaker A:I didn't say not those kind of private sector.
Speaker B:You did not.
Speaker A:I did say adp.
Speaker B:You said OPP in front of the private sector.
Speaker A:You're done with opp.
Speaker B:Yeah, you know me.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker B: So nobody who's born in: Speaker A:Wu Tang forever.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Sorry Jill, we didn't take this but side now we're kicking around some ideas about like us doing some educational content which we're going to talk about later in the show.
Speaker B:And we, we wanted to be like you know, professional looking.
Speaker B:So I'd put on the Suits and maybe look like, you know, I got a job.
Speaker B:And then we're like, what if we, what if we just wore the blazers with like Wu Tang shirts.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Underneath, like making a mockery of all the other channels that like to push this style of content.
Speaker A:They're all suited and booted, like, okay, look, we'll play the part two, but we'll do it with Wu Tang shirts.
Speaker B:Underneath this, just inside Wu Tang is forever.
Speaker A:I love it.
Speaker A:Protect your neck.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:All right, so the US private employers cut a lot of jobs.
Speaker B:Okay, we know this.
Speaker B:The data coming out or not from the BLS is irrelevant.
Speaker B:We know the private payroll stuff's coming out.
Speaker B:So US private employees cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week over the four weeks ending October 25, according to ADP's private weekly data.
Speaker B: t, the second largest drop in: Speaker B:And for those of you who happen to be watching the vis visually stunning show that we bring to you on either Spotify or YouTube or Gila's propped up the image in front of you.
Speaker B:And what I would like to point out, and I'll describe it for those of you driving here, that there's a lot of green in this chart, which means that job growth was pretty consistent over the course of the last year and a half to two years.
Speaker B: e period in March of, call it: Speaker B:Nothing's really significant, but we've seen a pattern in practice over the course of the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/4, 6, I'm sorry, 6 months of reported jobs.
Speaker B:4 of the last 6 months had negative job growth.
Speaker A:And if you take it back to, let's say, December of last year, it's on a pretty steady decline.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker B:So this contrasts with ADP's monthly report which showed private sector payrolls rose about 42, 000 in October, following declines in the prior two months.
Speaker B:Meanwhile, and this is a very important statement, I'm going to come back to this.
Speaker B:Goldman Sachs estimates that payrolls fell about 50,000 jobs in October.
Speaker B: jobs, second largest drop in: Speaker B:And then you have Goldman Sachs saying that they expected payrolls to fall about 50,000 in October.
Speaker B:Downward momentum in the US job market is accelerating.
Speaker B:It's not flatlining, it's not stagnant it's not plus minus, it is accelerating.
Speaker B:Negative.
Speaker B:So the Fed's concerns about this were real.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:That there is a fundamental problem with this.
Speaker B:Now if you knew that this is going to come out in the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports and you pause or slow rolled that maybe you're trying to impact the FOMC decision making.
Speaker B:Look.
Speaker A:Yeah, that's exactly.
Speaker A:Maybe, maybe that's true.
Speaker A:And then look, this is all coming at a time where you have.
Speaker A:It's no secret consumer sentiment is low.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Like what?
Speaker A:I know we don't like to cite surveys because those, they can be manipulated.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:But it's no secret.
Speaker A:There's, there's genuine fear in the market of like what's to come.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And the, I guess the consumer and I guess the, the employees out there don't feel comfortable and safe.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:People aren't switching from jobs to jobs right now.
Speaker A:A lot of, a lot of people are being told to hold tight right now.
Speaker B:So let's, let's explain that a little bit.
Speaker B:So a 4.5 to 5% unemployment rate is a healthy number.
Speaker B:And I think a lot of people go why is that a healthy number?
Speaker B:Shouldn't the lower number just always be better?
Speaker B:No.
Speaker B:Healthy job migration from one job to another job for personal growth, for change of atmosphere.
Speaker B:That amount of change is healthy in the economy.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:And you got to think when, when people change jobs like that, usually it's for a slight pay bump.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So you know their incomes can keep up with inflation.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And it, it produces, it makes people want to go out and spend more.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And keep up with the Joneses, if you will.
Speaker A:Now that's also.
Speaker A:So consumer sentiment being down at a time while corporate profits are hitting all time highs.
Speaker A:Well, because you're able to lay people off and you're getting stock prices continuing to rise after like certain layoffs.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:It's like these, these two things don't add up.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:They're working against, it's like we're laying people off, our stock price is going to go up and consumers are feeling like they need to be held tight, held down.
Speaker A:They're worried about what's to come.
Speaker A:And it just feels like a really, really odd time.
Speaker B:The public sentiment I think shows it.
Speaker B:There's been some reports that have come out, nothing that I felt really good, good enough for the show as far as quality of data goes recently.
Speaker B:But there's definitely consumer sentiment turning negative.
Speaker B:That's palpable.
Speaker B:But you can just see it when you talk to your friends.
Speaker B:Everybody that I know is focused on earnings, and now the desperation starting to creep out where people are starting to kind of go into the social media realm and trying to figure out side hustles a little bit more and trying to figure things out, and people are freaking out.
Speaker B:I think it's a real palpable problem.
Speaker B:And I'll be honest, even myself, I go to.
Speaker B:Today is a great example, right?
Speaker B:I, instead of ordering Ubereats, I drove to Whole Foods to get a chicken bowl.
Speaker B:It's just chicken rice.
Speaker A:Did not get this servicing fee because.
Speaker B:It'S 12 bucks for the chicken bowl from Whole Foods, which is good quality food.
Speaker B:It's not bad, right?
Speaker B:As opposed to me getting something delivered.
Speaker B:The other night, I ordered pizza for my wife and my son and I.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:And I ordered a nice, you know, extra large pie and then one medium one for my son, right?
Speaker B:That was $90 wild, bro.
Speaker A:Would you go to Roundtable?
Speaker B:No, I ordered.
Speaker A:No, no, this is.
Speaker A:This is a real thing, dude.
Speaker A:At the place by our house, it's like a family owned pizza shop that's been there for, like, so you want.
Speaker B:To support small business.
Speaker B:And it's usually better quality, which is exactly what I did.
Speaker A:I'll be honest.
Speaker A:You could taste the quality.
Speaker A:It's way better than Domino's or papa.
Speaker B:But $90 for delivery, my guy, right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:So even.
Speaker A:So we'll.
Speaker A:We'll skip the delivery.
Speaker A:I'll go and I'll pick it up, right?
Speaker A:And ordering two pizzas was like 60 bucks.
Speaker A:I'm like, that's insane.
Speaker A:What are we doing?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I mean, come on, man.
Speaker B:I mean, I don't be the guy who's like, I remember when, but damn, bro.
Speaker B:You telling me I'm paying on average $45 for a pizza, and then my.
Speaker A:Kids are like, can we go and eat there?
Speaker A:I'm like, no, I know they got an arcade there.
Speaker A:You want to spend more money?
Speaker B:Oh, I hadn't even thought about that.
Speaker A:Yeah, it's real, bro.
Speaker A:Dominoes you can get.
Speaker A:Damn claw machines.
Speaker A:The worst thing that could have ever happened to me.
Speaker A:I took the kids to Chuck E. Cheese years ago, and Adam won on the claw machine five times in a row.
Speaker B:Oh, now I want to play every time he goes, bro.
Speaker A:It's like, now he's playing with, like.
Speaker B:Bonus money, but you get those super loose hand hand ones that, like, they're like, so jiggly.
Speaker B:The whole thing.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:I'm like, I'll never forget.
Speaker A:He kept winning.
Speaker A:And I'm like, God, this is honestly this is like.
Speaker A:It's like when.
Speaker B:Because you.
Speaker B:It's one of those claws that's super tight.
Speaker B:It's.
Speaker B:So you're supposed to win.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:But the kids don't understand.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Chuck E. Cheese got him.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You linked it.
Speaker B:You locked in.
Speaker B:You can get it.
Speaker B:What now at Domino's for Jill Domino's.
Speaker A:You can Get a.
Speaker A:For 7.99 if you carry out technical foul.
Speaker B:You can't be talking about 799 pizzas if you just lost 30 pounds, my guy.
Speaker A:No, that's a flex, bro.
Speaker A:You don't get it.
Speaker A:You don't get it.
Speaker A:He's like, bro, I'm eating dominoes and.
Speaker B:I'm cutting, First of all, 7.99.
Speaker B:Really?
Speaker A:If it fits in your macros.
Speaker B:Is that.
Speaker B:Is it one topping?
Speaker A:No, two topping.
Speaker B:Damn.
Speaker A:If it fits your macros.
Speaker B:You don't have no macro.
Speaker B:You ain't counting the macro.
Speaker A:You got macros, bro.
Speaker B:Come on.
Speaker B:One injection holidays coming up, bro.
Speaker B:You got to keep that momentum going.
Speaker B:You know what I mean?
Speaker A:I know, man.
Speaker B:All right, so it wasn't just the jobs.
Speaker B:The jobs kicked off kind of a series and sequence of events.
Speaker B:And I thought this would be a great time to show an example of what this can do to the market.
Speaker B:Because you got a negative sentiment in the markets.
Speaker B:And I know it's easy for people to go, oh, well, consumer sentiment sucks.
Speaker B:Well, sometimes investor sentiment sucks, too.
Speaker B:And when investor sentiment sucks, there are reverberating impacts in the economy that I think are meaningful that most consumers don't understand.
Speaker B:We always talk about the bond markets, and people are like, well, I don't get it.
Speaker A:Controls.
Speaker B:It controls a lot like bonds, like jail.
Speaker B:I don't get it.
Speaker A:Bail bonds.
Speaker B:It's like, who's you want to bond?
Speaker B:Like you and me together?
Speaker A:Bond together.
Speaker B:I don't get up.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So we're going to explain it to you in a way that I think is meaningful.
Speaker B:Start.
Speaker B:We'll start with the simple effects, right?
Speaker B:Treasury yield decline as the end of the government shutdown looks.
Speaker B:Examine it.
Speaker B:So this according to the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker B:Now, you read that headline, you go, okay, wait a minute.
Speaker B:If treasury yields decline at the end of the government shutdown, so is that a good or bad thing then?
Speaker B:Because the government shutdowns are ending, is a good thing.
Speaker B:Except there's more to it.
Speaker A:Okay, I want to hear about it.
Speaker B:The White House says that October inflation and employment indicators may never be released and again will, quote, be permanently impaired due to the shutdown.
Speaker B:Demand declines slightly in a 10 year treasury auction with a bid to cover ratio of 2.43.
Speaker B:And if you're going well, I don't get it.
Speaker B:I got you, just bear with me.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:So with a bid to cover ratio of 2.43 below the previous six month average of 2.54, participation of indirect bidders which include foreign buyers is steady and a little below average.
Speaker B:A 30 year auction is scheduled for tomorrow.
Speaker B:The 10 year yield declines at 0.043%.
Speaker B:Sorry.
Speaker B:The 10 year declined 0.043 percentage points to a 4.066% and the 2 year falls.025 to 3.565%.
Speaker B:The Wall street dollar index is flat.
Speaker B:Now if you heard that and you go I don't understand what he said.
Speaker B:He sounds like an idiot.
Speaker A:A lot of numbers.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Allow me to explain it to you in what I like to call Saeed terms.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker B:Rajeel, this is too simplified for you.
Speaker B:You're more complex.
Speaker A:This is for sight layman's terms.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:So if you're driving, you want to laugh along at side with me, this is your opportunity.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker B:So think of the 10 year treasury auction like the government holding a big loan sale where investors line up to lend money to the US for 10 years.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:We're all lining up to lend you money.
Speaker B:The government for 10 years.
Speaker B:Today that line was a little shorter than usual.
Speaker B:The bid to cover ratio which basically measures how many people are trying to buy compared to how much is for sale.
Speaker B:So slipped from its usual level.
Speaker B:Imagine the government put out 100 tickets to buy.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:And normally 254 people are trying to buy them.
Speaker B:A 2.454 ratio.
Speaker B:Today only 243 people showed up.
Speaker B:Still fine.
Speaker B:But a little bit less excitement in buying what is normally considered to be one of the strongest returns a bond.
Speaker A:So then what usually happens if there's less people?
Speaker A:Do they have to juice the yield?
Speaker B:Less demand?
Speaker B:Yield goes down.
Speaker B:I'm sorry, yield goes up in order to get this to happen.
Speaker B:So it's potential to see what happens.
Speaker B:We're seeing some volatility in the Treasury.
Speaker B:Now keep in mind the 10 year treasury drives mortgage rates way more so than the the Federal Reserve and the FOMC.
Speaker B:And the fed funds rate cut.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Posted the 10 year bond note and it shows the steep drop off that you've seen today.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:So and I guess 30 year mortgages are usually 2 to 3 percentage points higher than this.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So that that adds up.
Speaker A:Could any of this be how early could we see Treasuries move downwards where they're pricing in the next Fed rate cut?
Speaker A:If the Fed rate cut is going to happen.
Speaker A:I think if it does happen I have to, I haven't checked the Chicago Mercantile Exchange recently because it's changed a lot so far out until December to give it a little bit more time.
Speaker A:But that's, that's what, a month away.
Speaker A:December 10, less than a month away.
Speaker B:It's a little less.
Speaker B:Keep in mind the holidays are coming too so you see a little bit of less excitement die down.
Speaker B:Plus you get a lot of people, the mortgage rates in that side of the business, they're not so excitable towards November, December because not a lot of people are moving and buying then and refinancing them.
Speaker B:That's not usually the time people think about mortgage transactions.
Speaker A:So none of this could be them starting to price in a rate cut?
Speaker B:No, this, this was in direct, this is inter day.
Speaker B:So this chart that, that he posted here is literally in a day from today.
Speaker B:And it, it doesn't show a whole lot in my mind of that being priced in.
Speaker B:I think what it shows more is that the sentiment around long term stability of the country is starting to change.
Speaker B:And if people think that buying a bond over 10 years is not as exciting, they're basically saying that, you know, I don't think that the 10 year usage of my money is, is a high return.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So then you're going to have to either increase your return to get more interest, more people in line to buy you or you see it continue to decline and people continue to not show up.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And then you have a problem.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So you know, the long story short here is that the government shutdown ending did not drive confidence in the long term sentiment of the economy.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I think that's because Goldman Sachs and ADP came out and said hey, we're seeing some pretty healthy declines in jobs numbers.
Speaker B:So even though the government shutdown is going to happen, you know, to come to an end, you now know that GDP has been impacted by tune of approximately 11 billion.
Speaker B:You know that the jobs numbers are weakening even though you don't have the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting on it and you've got an FOMC meeting coming up on the 10th where there's a continually changing narrative which we should probably get into.
Speaker A:Yeah, let's do it.
Speaker B:I'm here for you side.
Speaker A:Thank you brother.
Speaker B:I'm here to get into all the things you want to get into.
Speaker B:So Yahoo Finance was an interesting place for me to read about this today because there were a couple of different competing narratives as it relates to the FOMC key people.
Speaker A:Oh, I actually heard about this too on my own.
Speaker A:Yeah, your boy Rafael boasted gonna step down after February.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker B:But we're gonna start off with Boston's Fed.
Speaker B:Boston Fed Collins.
Speaker B:The bar for cutting rates further is relatively high.
Speaker B:SEIZE holding for some time.
Speaker B:This is kind of one of those things that's always bothered me about the FOMC now is they all have these scheduled conferences, they all speak a little bit more cavalier.
Speaker B:And you think about in the context of how this data comes out.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:FOMC member goes to the fomc, they make their vote, they have a summary of economic projections which comes out and they can give their opinions and thoughts in this document.
Speaker B:Jerome Powell will come out and give his press conference.
Speaker B:And then as time goes by, you get stuff like Goldman Sachs numbers.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So then the FOMC's members, voting members make comments publicly at events they go to.
Speaker B:Okay, that all skews narrative, of course.
Speaker B:And this is a great example of.
Speaker A:They give you inside baseball.
Speaker B:Boston Fed President Susan Collins said Wednesday that while she supported cutting interest rates at the last policy meeting, the bar for cutting rates further is, quote, relatively high, end quote.
Speaker B:And she sees holding rates at current levels for, quote, some time, end quote.
Speaker B:That means multiple meetings and yeah, relatively high sometime.
Speaker B:Those are pretty powerful words.
Speaker B:It will likely be appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time to balance the inflation and employment risk in this highly uncertain environment.
Speaker B:Collins said in a speech in Boston, and I'm quoting again, I see several reasons to have a relatively high bar for additional easing in the near term, end quote.
Speaker B:So if you know how many voting members there are and they all give speeches and those speeches all sound increasingly like this, you can pretty much guess how they're going to vote.
Speaker A:Yeah, they're giving you a little heads up.
Speaker B:And if you are in the business or you listen to the Higher Standard podcast, you have a tendency to hear these things repeatedly.
Speaker B:So you don't really need to be at Chicago Mercantile Exchange weighing all the numbers to kind of figure out how this plays out.
Speaker B:I'll tell you right now, we called this early, you may remember this, you may not.
Speaker B:We called about maybe a month ago, ish, maybe two, two weeks ago, that this was gonna be the most controversial FOMC meeting of the year.
Speaker A:Yep, that's exactly what we said.
Speaker B:And it's really shaping up to be that Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, great Halloween name by the way, like Collins told Yahoo Finance last week that the bar for cutting rates is higher since the Fed has cut rates twice, a projection he had penciled in for the year.
Speaker B:And given the inflation, given that inflation has remained above the target rate for 4.5 years and is trending the wrong way.
Speaker B:Collins also said inflation remains elevated and noted that the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for August showed an increase in prices driven by rising good prices.
Speaker B:So largely due to tariffs.
Speaker A:Largely.
Speaker A:So are they more concerned with the jobs market right now or inflation?
Speaker B:Well, they certainly sounded like it was jobs in the last FOMC meeting.
Speaker B:Now it sounds like they're more worried about inflation because jobs to them are uncertain.
Speaker B:Maybe.
Speaker A:And we're still remember I think Raphael Bosik was the one that recently came out and said that because historically speaking it was always a 5% unemployment rate was one that was deemed healthy.
Speaker A:But because we had that prolonged period of time of, you know, having unemployment rate with a three handle.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker A:For a long time.
Speaker A:Like okay, we've now adjusted that healthy marker to around 4.5%.
Speaker A:And the, I believe the estimates right now are that the next jobs report will print out a four and a half percent unemployment rate which is, you know, trending upwards but still technically, according to them, in that healthy territory.
Speaker A:Now the issue with that is it's backward looking data and it's lagging.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:It's not something that you can correct quickly with sharp rate cuts.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker B:And what becomes more of a priority at the time will be interesting.
Speaker B:Right now they said their words, they care about jobs.
Speaker B:But the third voting member.
Speaker B:Here we have it.
Speaker B:Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic said Wednesday that while it's an extremely close call, he believes inflation is more urgent risks than the job market is right now.
Speaker A:And he said himself that he will be absolutely stepping away once his term is up in February.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker B: dissipate before mid to late: Speaker B:So he's basically foreshadowing that that's when the next rate cut should be.
Speaker B:Without saying that we cannot breezily assume inflationary pressures will quickly dissipate after a one time bump in prices from new import duties.
Speaker B:Bostic said in a speech in Atlanta.
Speaker B:Across all of our information sources, I see little to no evidence that we should be sanguine about the forward trajectory of inflation.
Speaker A:I mean, think about it.
Speaker A:I don't know if I Don't know if it's been agreed upon yet, but if this tariff stimmy starts getting dished out, $2,000 to 150 million Americans, right.
Speaker A:That's inflationary, dude.
Speaker B:100%, it's all over.
Speaker A:So if, if that's the narrative that's coming out from the administration, the Fed's probably thinking about like, hold on guys.
Speaker B:You know what's also inflationary?
Speaker A:Tell me.
Speaker B:50 year mortgages, bruh.
Speaker B:Talk about driving up home prices.
Speaker A:Like this is such okay, shenanigans.
Speaker A:This should, this should honestly.
Speaker A:Okay, aside from it just being.
Speaker A:What's the politically correct term that I'm looking for?
Speaker B:Dumb.
Speaker A:Yeah, stupid, nonsensical.
Speaker A:Right, there you go.
Speaker A:If this is the only solution you have to the affordability crisis, this should concern everybody.
Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker A:They realize there's nothing else we can do because they know we can't force, you know, employers to raise income.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:If we can try to control.
Speaker A:All he can really do other than this is lean on Fannie and Freddie.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:By he, I mean let's just say the administration lean on Fanny and Freddie to ease their guidelines a little bit, which they did.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:The FICO scores remove.
Speaker A:FICO scores remove.
Speaker A:So that's easy.
Speaker A:That's making.
Speaker B:Which is kind of wild when you think about it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Because six.
Speaker A:They were removing the 620 FICO score.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Well here's the problem though, is that for most young Americans, FICO score is somewhat irrelevant for them because they haven't had the chance to really build wealth or debt.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:But for, but for the people out there, right?
Speaker A:But if you wanted banks, right, to start lending out more money and to get back out there, they need to sell their loans off to the secondary market to Fan and Freddie, right.
Speaker A:So that they can start deploying some more money out there.
Speaker B:That's the whole point of the GSEs.
Speaker A:That's the whole point.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So if they can, if, if the administration can lean on them to remove some of their stricter guidelines to buy more loans.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:But to me that doesn't solve the problem either, to be honest with you.
Speaker B:All it does is.
Speaker B:So let's just narrow this down to the brass tax of the matter, fundamentally.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And I've said this before on social media, I'll say it again here.
Speaker B:Unless you're invested into being in the, in the real estate sector, making money off people doing this, there's no reason for anyone to think that a 50 year mortgage is a valuable ad.
Speaker B:Everybody I've seen, take the quote, controversial Take of saying, nobody keeps a mortgage till it's maturity.
Speaker B:If it's a cheaper payment now, it'll be better for you to build equity and something.
Speaker B:No, shut up, stupid.
Speaker B:Don't do that.
Speaker A:Have you ever looked at an amortization schedule?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You're talking the difference between 30 and 50 years is literally hundreds of thousands of dollars in the average American home price.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Oh yeah.
Speaker A:That's.
Speaker B:You're going from paying less than a million on the average American home to well over a million.
Speaker A:Oh, yeah.
Speaker B:I mean, it is meaningful.
Speaker B:Compound interest is a terrible thing.
Speaker B:So here's what I'll say.
Speaker B:You're not going to solve the affordability crisis by driving rates down and making homes easier to buy.
Speaker B:You're not going to solve the affordability crisis by driving mortgage amortization longer and making homes easier to buy.
Speaker B:Making homes that are already scarce, from an inventory perspective, even more scarce is not the solution to this problem.
Speaker B:Okay?
Speaker B:Fundamentally.
Speaker B:And people are gonna say, well, Chris, you've already said demand without affordability is not demand and that people are basically window shopping.
Speaker B:Yes, they are.
Speaker B:But here's what typically happens when people window shop.
Speaker B:If somebody can't sell something they want to sell, prices go down.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:That is the way this is solved.
Speaker B:If you prevent the prices from going down by artificially giving people pseudo stemis, which is what we're talking about here.
Speaker B:The 50 year mortgage, a, a faux stimmy.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:You drive prices up even farther, further removing more inventory, just exasperating the problem, giving it a bigger correction, possibly crash need later on.
Speaker B:It makes no fundamental sense.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:And here's a problem for the executive branch right now.
Speaker B:Companies are making more money now than ever before in almost all circumstances.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Certainly the, the top 10 leading the S&P 500 and AI driven economies are in that bracket.
Speaker A:Yep.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:You don't want to upset them because they donate a lot of money to your funds and they support the hell out of you.
Speaker B:Tonight at the White House, a lot of the finance and banking sector are literally meeting with the President.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:And after he's done that every single time, he's always announced something.
Speaker B:So the fact that he's doing this tonight presumptively means that he's going to announce something in the next days to come.
Speaker B:What that is, who knows?
Speaker B:But what I'll tell you is if you do this, you've set the course of American future history in a very, very recessionary like trend that you cannot walk away from because you can't expect those companies to make more money.
Speaker B:They're your primary constituents as long as well as the individuals are.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:So then what do you do?
Speaker B:You can't force them to pay people more.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And you wind up in a situation housing wire regulatory challenges could mean higher rates.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's true.
Speaker B:And the higher rates, and this is also the problem, the 50 year mortgage people are assuming.
Speaker B:Oh well, compared to a 30 year mortgage, a 15 year mortgage gives you a cheaper interest rate than a 30 year mortgage.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:A 50 year mortgage will not have a low as rate as a 30 year mortgage.
Speaker A:And if you, if anybody has ever listened to the show or studied any, you know, behavioral economics, the average person out there that saving that 250 bucks a month on their mortgage statement isn't taking it and going to continue to pay, pay down their principal.
Speaker A:They're going to take that extra 250 and they're going to tie themselves up into something else.
Speaker B:There's countless examples on the Internet.
Speaker B:I mean people were posting all about it.
Speaker B:I literally just got quoted in that earlier tonight.
Speaker B:And I will tell you right now, I adamantly believe I will, I will draw a hard line here saying this is a cataclysmically bad decision for the American people.
Speaker A:Yeah, I, I completely agree.
Speaker A:Regilla put up, pulled up a chart here and I actually have an example.
Speaker A:So just for those ones out there that want to know, I mean the average median home price is still under 500,000.
Speaker A:So let's just, let's not talk to the Californians out there.
Speaker A:Let's talk to, you know, the rest of the nation.
Speaker A:If you were to buy a $500,000 home, right.
Speaker A:And you put down 20%, so $100,000 and you got a six and a half percent interest rate today on a 30 year mortgage.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:Your payment would be $2,500 a month.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker A:That would, that would mean you, your total payments of 900 grand.
Speaker A:That's $400,000 in interest that you would have paid over the life of the loan.
Speaker A:I know that's shocking to a lot of people.
Speaker A:A lot of interest, that's a lot of living.
Speaker A:But that's, that's standard.
Speaker A:That's right.
Speaker B:Now that's nothing compared to the 50, 50 year mortgage.
Speaker A:Nothing.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:If you got a 50 year mortgage, your payment would only drop $250 a month.
Speaker A:Okay.
Speaker A:And you'd ultimately be paying 1.35 million for that house.
Speaker A:In total, that's $850,000 in interest.
Speaker B:More than the house.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:You know what?
Speaker A:I Mean, and it's like.
Speaker B:And what's the rule of thumb?
Speaker A:The rule of thumb is you should.
Speaker A:You should be staying in your home 5 to 7 years to gain enough equity for it to make sense.
Speaker A:I mean, right now, Right?
Speaker A:What is that going to look like for this?
Speaker B:And the realtor community, the educated realtor community, they've largely understood this.
Speaker B:There are the exceptions that are predatory.
Speaker B:And they've said, well, you know, who stays in the home more than a couple years?
Speaker B:That's a convenient narrative for a dude to make some money off you getting your loan on the home or.
Speaker B:Or buying a home or, you know, I mean, that's convenient narrative.
Speaker B:And there's a lot of people right now who are living off the equity.
Speaker B:They're trying to give everybody lines of credit.
Speaker B:Hey, bro, you got a million dollars in equity, Get a line of credit.
Speaker B:Here's a line of credit that's totally ignoring the fact your equity go the other way, bro.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And I saw something earlier on the Internet today, and I'm going to call him out just because.
Speaker A:Give it to me.
Speaker A:I didn't appreciate it.
Speaker A:Your boy Ben Shapiro was doing an interview, right?
Speaker A:And I want to say, when I say your boy, I don't actually mean your boy.
Speaker B:He's.
Speaker B:He's got a dark past, man.
Speaker A:Yeah, we won't even get into all of his.
Speaker A:His entire dark past, but he basically came out and said, like, look, the American people need to get off this.
Speaker A:This idea that you should be able to ultimately buy a house where you grew up.
Speaker A:If you can't afford to live there, you should move.
Speaker A:Like, that's a little harsh, bro.
Speaker A:Like, just to tell people you got to move away from your family, where you grew up, everything.
Speaker A:You know, I get it.
Speaker B:If you did this, by the way.
Speaker A:If you get, huh?
Speaker B:You did this.
Speaker A:If you get.
Speaker A:If it makes more financial sense, okay?
Speaker A:If it's better for you and your family.
Speaker A:Yeah, but I mean, solving the, Solving the affordability issue by telling people, hey, dude, just move to somewhere I know where you know absolutely no one.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:Or worse yet, okay, hey, Ben, who do you think's gonna mow your lawn, clean your pool, make your food?
Speaker A:Right, right, right.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:You know what I mean?
Speaker B:Like, it's just, you need to have workforce housing that is affordable.
Speaker B:And if you say, well, they can always rent, screw you, guy.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:That's not the American dream.
Speaker A:So, I mean, and.
Speaker A:And this is where it's actually a good time maybe to have that conversation about.
Speaker A:A lot of people have come at us personally and, and like to run with this narrative of the reason, the, the big reason why housing is where it is because of institutional investors.
Speaker B:That's completely fabricated.
Speaker A:It's completely.
Speaker A:Less than 1% of, of the homes that, that were purchased right over that, over that period of time were due.
Speaker B:To, in some regions as high as 2 or 3%.
Speaker B:But this, this narrative is completely debunked.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker B:False narrative.
Speaker B:Matt, Matt and I, who's been on the show before, we talked about this at length and I've talked about it with industry professionals.
Speaker B:I have literally sold loans in billion dollar quantities on the, and I've, I've literally talked to the highest people you can possibly think of at places like Blackstone.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:And I can tell you the narrative that you think is largely disconnected to reality.
Speaker B:Now, do you think pimping this out.
Speaker A:Or do you think that this is ultimately, maybe ultimately this is where it does go though?
Speaker A:Or is there no interest, no interest from institutional investors to get into that?
Speaker B:Okay, here's the.
Speaker B:Under the misconception, right?
Speaker B:If, let's use stock as a comparison proxy for this example.
Speaker B:And when you, when you talk about it this way, it makes such sense that people go like, oh, that's a stupid narrative.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:If I own Apple stock, okay.
Speaker B:And I believe that Apple stock is doing quite well and I think it's at a good price, Do I hold on to it in perpetuity or do I likely sell it and get back some of my investment?
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Do I keep buying it and buying it and buying it?
Speaker B:Apple pays a dividend.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Just like rent.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:I'll keep buying it up until it no longer makes financial sense.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:And right now I think we can all argue, including Scott Besant, Treasury Secretary, that we are in a housing recession.
Speaker B:Values are going the other way.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:In major cities across the country, yeah.
Speaker B:Rental markets are largely impacted.
Speaker B:Is particularly in the Sunbelt region.
Speaker B:Think, you know, from Nevada, Arizona to Texas to Florida, these markets that are overbuilt are having corrections in their rental values.
Speaker B:You're going to tell me that a very smart fund that makes money doing this is going to say we're okay with less cash flow in this market?
Speaker B:Yeah, no, that's fine.
Speaker B:We'll take the risk.
Speaker B:We like it.
Speaker B:We're going to hold onto it forever?
Speaker B:No, they're going to get out of their investment at the top before the values correct the whole time.
Speaker B:They have sophisticated people on staff.
Speaker B:They have people in accounting, they have people in real estate, they have People in property management.
Speaker A:And they're not going to all of them.
Speaker A:They're not going to tie up their money in, in houses where that's not as liquid.
Speaker B:And how naive are the American people to think that institutional companies have come in and just now started buying.
Speaker A:Yeah, right.
Speaker B:I don't want to be the bearer of bad news.
Speaker B:You ever heard of the Rothschilds, the Vanderbilts?
Speaker B:These people have all owned real estate for generations.
Speaker B:They just didn't publicize it wasn't all over social media.
Speaker B:There wasn't some, a hole on Twitter going like, hey bro, institutional vestors are to blame.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:What do you think's happening here?
Speaker B:This is not new.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:So much of what we think is like this new, sensationalized, you know, conspiracy theory.
Speaker B:We go, oh my God, how could this be?
Speaker B:It's been this way forever.
Speaker A:So I bring this up to, just to add to your point, we need workforce housing.
Speaker B:100%.
Speaker B:We need workforce housing.
Speaker A:So you can't just assume like, okay.
Speaker B:And I'm not talking rentals either.
Speaker B:You need affordable places to live, own and rent.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:So there you go.
Speaker B:I could go.
Speaker B:I, I am such a huge advocate for workforce housing.
Speaker B:And, and honestly, rent control gets demonized too.
Speaker B:People are like, oh my God, that sucks for the landlord.
Speaker B:Okay, look, rent control can work both ways.
Speaker B:It can keep value stable over time.
Speaker B:Because you know that if you have a long term tenant and you've got maximum leverage based on the cash flow of that property.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Then guess what?
Speaker B:You know as a landlord that you've got much more upside potential over time.
Speaker B:Now it won't be as fast as you want it to be.
Speaker B:And people go, oh, these landlords are, are vicious.
Speaker B:Okay, we'll put in rent control.
Speaker B:Guess what happens?
Speaker B:The landlords limit their ability to increase the property values.
Speaker B:And they go, then the landlords get all upset and saying, well, I can't do it.
Speaker B:Okay, well then go build a new property.
Speaker B:If you build a new property.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:Or you can keep your property vacant for a year and upgrade it and make it like top of the line.
Speaker B:Well, then guess what?
Speaker B:You're now bringing nicer homes to the market or more homes to the market and you can rent those at market rents.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:It's supposed to incentivize building out more properties, not the other way.
Speaker B:I'm a big advocate of this.
Speaker B:It doesn't always work.
Speaker A:There's no.
Speaker A:But no rent.
Speaker A:No, there hasn't been any rent control, at least in California, on single family homes.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:So that's that part is because I know someone personally, a good, good friend of mine had their rent jacked up on them 20 over for a home that they were renting and that ultimately pushed them to buy a home.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Which I think they benefited off of like in the long term.
Speaker A:But it's like perhaps California houses, mansion.
Speaker B:Tax now and there's all sorts of weird.
Speaker B:California is a weird state from a political standpoint.
Speaker B:But it also, I will say the, that the cities and counties, not necessarily the state has gotten rent control.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:In some ways.
Speaker B:And I think there's good examples there.
Speaker B:New York is a great example of how, how it can go wrong.
Speaker B:But New York's a very different environment with co ops and whatnot in the buildings.
Speaker A:So there you go.
Speaker B:It can be very different there.
Speaker B:And I've, I've, I've been on this diatribe for a long time.
Speaker B:I did want to cover Bostic for a little bit because he's kind of a unique dude and I don't know if anybody who watches the FOMC knows some of this about him, but Atlanta Fed President Bostic was the first black and openly gay person to lead the US central bank's 12 regional banks.
Speaker B: ,: Speaker B:An unexpected departure amid a push by President Donald Trump for more influence over the Fed.
Speaker B:So now Bostic, Bostic, look, I have always thought really highly of him.
Speaker A:I did too.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I thought that he was pretty exceptional.
Speaker B:His job, his public remarks have always been in my mind a lot more reserved.
Speaker B:But this marks another person who's been very clear about his sentiment that, that you shouldn't cut rates so fast, possibly departing, you know, that Jerome Pal's out.
Speaker B:So now you've got three people, maybe four who, who've said they're, they're likely to hold on cutting rates.
Speaker B:And you've got someone as influential as him and stable as him leaving.
Speaker A:Well, I think he's doing a good job of I guess controlling the, the level of optimism that if the Fed starts cutting rates, then they're just going to cut rates back to what everyone knew for such a long period of time.
Speaker A:No, no, no, no.
Speaker A:This was always part of the plan to try to find that neutral rate.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Where you know that, that inflection point.
Speaker A:So who, who knows, who knows how bad the data points will be come December and what the Fed ultimately does.
Speaker A:But it's letting everyone know that once we feel like comfortable, we're going to Stay right.
Speaker A:We're going to stay put again.
Speaker B:Well, for those of you listening, just be prepared.
Speaker B:December, in that beginning of that second week, I will be going live again on YouTube.
Speaker B:You should tune in and watch it.
Speaker B:We will doing live commentary, watching the FOMC announcement and the subsequent press conference afterward.
Speaker B:That's becoming a reoccurring thing that we're doing here.
Speaker B:Post game press conference.
Speaker B:And for those of you who need a reminder, Trump does not select the presidents of the regional Fed banks, but the appointments must be approved by the central bank's Board of Governors, which the US President is trying to reshape through the attempted firing of Governor Lisa Cook, which did not succeed, and the upcoming choice of a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term as Fed Chief ends next spring.
Speaker B:I believe it's May, right?
Speaker B:May or March.
Speaker B:May.
Speaker B:May, May.
Speaker B:So all three Fed governors appointed by Trump have explicitly backed further easing, which calls for especially steep cuts from Stephen Mirren, who joined the seven member board after the surprising departure in August of the hawkish leaning Adriana Kolger.
Speaker B:So I thought a good reminder here for some just FOMC commentary would be valuable.
Speaker B:So this is from Congress.gov Federal Reserves Board current and historical information.
Speaker B:I'm not going to cover all of it.
Speaker B:I'm just going to cover some meaningful points here.
Speaker B: ,: Speaker B:Always screw that up.
Speaker B:Kugler K. Coogler as the member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Speaker B: m set to expire in January of: Speaker B:So he's not like a full time appointee because he's just filling in for existing term.
Speaker B:The Federal Reserve U.S. central bank is led by seven member board of governors based in Washington D.C. the President appoints the governors for 14 year terms with the advice and consent of the Senate.
Speaker B:Governors can be appointed to one full term.
Speaker B:They often fill the remaining years of unexpired terms and may then be reappointed to a full term.
Speaker B:So Mirren may actually get that full term reappointment.
Speaker B:The board is led by a chair who serves a four year term separate.
Speaker B:Excuse me, separate from and concurrent with their term as a governor.
Speaker B:So Jerome Powell is serving as chair but concurrent with his existing term which is set to expire in spring.
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker B:The Vice Chair and Vice Chair for Supervision also serve four year terms.
Speaker B:These appointments are subject to Senate approval.
Speaker B: rrent form began operating in: Speaker B: n a chair, began operating in: Speaker B:That earlier iteration included the Secretary of the treasury and Comp.
Speaker B:Controller of the Currency as ex officio members, in addition to the members appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate.
Speaker B:And I bring this up because I think there's a future episode value here that we may do depending on what the news and situation looks like.
Speaker B:The Federal Reserve has a very interesting political and emotionally charged past that I think almost everybody is unaware of.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Reill, you aware of this past?
Speaker A:No, Please, please explain.
Speaker B: controversial creation in the: Speaker B:It actually has something to do with the Titanic.
Speaker A:I know exactly where this is going.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:And I'm going to leave that as a bit of a teaser for a future show, but suffice it to say that there were very large opponents and proponents of the Federal Reserve.
Speaker A:I heard something about that.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker B:Most people have.
Speaker B:And one of the largest opponents of this happened to die on the Titanic, in which several of the proponents were supposed to be on it and never showed up.
Speaker B:Yes.
Speaker B:So then the Federal Reserve Board moved forward with very little resistance.
Speaker A:And.
Speaker B:Well, it is, as it stands today, in large part because of this mysterious.
Speaker A:None of the.
Speaker A:None of that was conspiratorial, by the way.
Speaker B:No, those are all facts.
Speaker A:That's all that happened.
Speaker A:That's all fact.
Speaker B:Yeah, that.
Speaker B:That's factual.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:As said.
Speaker B:Would like to say no caps.
Speaker B:No caps.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Does that make us old that we still use that term?
Speaker B:Because I don't think anybody's using it anymore.
Speaker A:That's okay.
Speaker B:That's like.
Speaker A:We still use the word, like dope and cool and lit.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:You never thought lit, you know?
Speaker A:No, no, I've never.
Speaker A:I never got on board with lit.
Speaker A:That's lit.
Speaker A:Oh, you say fire, bro.
Speaker A:That's fire.
Speaker B:The fire is a whole person.
Speaker B:You can't say fire.
Speaker B:Come on.
Speaker A:Fire.
Speaker B:Brigitte, Is that fire?
Speaker B:See, it's always fire.
Speaker B:He sounds old.
Speaker B:Just saying he sounds old.
Speaker B:That sounds.
Speaker B:All right, so I want to spend some time here talking about what makes up wealth.
Speaker B:There's a chart where, Jill, if you can pull this up, what assets make up wealth?
Speaker B:I can't even remember where the hell I saw this the first time, but I've seen it several times here.
Speaker B:Make it a full screen.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:This chart, if you can't See it driving.
Speaker B:We're going to explain it to you.
Speaker B:There are several trends here that I think come from it.
Speaker B:But if you have the opportunity to check out the show on Spotify or YouTube, freeze frame this.
Speaker B:Take a look at these charts.
Speaker B:That's actually really good idea, Virgil, to zoom in on it there.
Speaker B:Take a look at these charts, the bar chart, and, and process it with what we're about to tell you.
Speaker B:Basically, it goes from people who have net worths of about $10,000, $100,000, $1 million, $10 million, $100 million and $1 billion.
Speaker A:And what comprises of that and what.
Speaker B:What their assets comprise of everything from stocks, fixed income, managed real estate and business interest, and quote, other assets.
Speaker B:And it should come as no surprise to many how this plays out, but I think it's a meaningful thing because there's so many of the concepts that we talk on the show that we don't really explain the logic behind.
Speaker B:And one of those, we've always talked about owning a business and from my days as underwriting deals and said, you've underwritten fair share of deals.
Speaker B:One of the things that I've seen and experienced over decades now, God, I'm old.
Speaker B:Is that business owners who can build a business for reasons whether you like it or not, tend to have more wealth than W2 employees.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker B:That's because there's so far and few in between positions that are W2 that pay really high salaries.
Speaker B:And the, the goal of those positions is to keep you in them.
Speaker B:And if the company.
Speaker B:So they pay you so much that you can build outside businesses, well, it becomes very challenging as somebody who was demonized.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:For having outside business interests.
Speaker B:And I'll be, I'll be honest here.
Speaker B:And it's probably something I haven't talked about on the show.
Speaker B:I have always been transparent about the businesses that I operate outside of my core business.
Speaker B:I know lots of executives at a.
Speaker B:Lots of companies that saw me being very transparent about, hey, I own real estate.
Speaker B:I own real estate, property management company.
Speaker B:Hey, I have a law firm that I do some stuff with.
Speaker B:Hey, I have this podcast that would reach out to me and say, chris, like, aren't you worried about the backlash?
Speaker B:And I thought to myself, so your solution to this is I'm going to own these businesses and just not tell anybody.
Speaker B:And because I'm not telling anybody, it's less stigma on, on the company.
Speaker B:They're like, yeah, no one's going to give me, you know, for, for running a business they don't know about.
Speaker B:And I thought, how intellectually dishonest is that?
Speaker A:Yeah, right, right.
Speaker A:I'm being completely upfront with what I'm doing on the side and showing that it's not impacting anything that I'm doing here.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:And it shouldn't, it shouldn't play a part.
Speaker B:But for those of you who want to spend some time on Google's, on the Interwebs, you can see an activist shareholder has come after me in large part because the impression that he was trying to conclude or to provide was that I was so busy focusing on other businesses and other things that I couldn't possibly be doing my job.
Speaker B:Well, the man never knew me, never met me at the time.
Speaker B:I was working more hours than the other executive of the company.
Speaker B:I'll, I'll go to my grave on that.
Speaker B:And your natural assumption is, oh, because I'm doing these other things that other people have and just don't talk about, and I'm being transparent about it, I must be less than adequate at my job.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And I was attacked there.
Speaker B:I've been attacked in multiple lawsuits for the same thing.
Speaker B:You know, they'll go, oh, let's attack his credibility.
Speaker B:He can't possibly be doing all these things.
Speaker B:And I think to myself, that's so ass backwards.
Speaker B:You want an entrepreneurial leader to lead your business, but you don't want them to be entrepreneurial when they're not in the office.
Speaker B:Office.
Speaker B:Right, right.
Speaker A:I mean, for me, it's like people would resonate more with somebody that's out in the public, that's showing that they're a human that has real interest in real things, like an everyday, normal person.
Speaker A:I feel like that's, if anything, that's a benefit to the company.
Speaker B:Well, and I feel, unfortunately, whether you like it or not, companies are changing, people are changing.
Speaker B:We don't want to do business with companies whose leadership isn't visible anymore.
Speaker B:You know the CEO of Apple, you know the CEO of Wells Fargo, you know the CEO.
Speaker B:Well, you might not know.
Speaker B:You might, you may.
Speaker B:JP Morgan, JP Morgan, you know, you know their CEO, you know the CEOs of OpenAI, you know the CEOs of all these companies.
Speaker B:And the reason, you know the CEO of Tesla, and it's not because they're, they're very, very successful.
Speaker B:And that's part of it.
Speaker B:It's because they are visible, doing things, going places, representing their businesses.
Speaker B:And the one person I always pump up and say, hey, look at this.
Speaker B:You're telling me I can't have outside endeavors But Elon Musk literally runs SpaceX and Tesla and other companies as well, Right?
Speaker B:Exactly.
Speaker B:Oh, but he's an exception, Chris.
Speaker A:Is he?
Speaker B:So you're telling me in your theory, Jamie Dimon at JPMorgan Chase doesn't have any outside businesses.
Speaker A:That can't be true.
Speaker B:I'm gonna say right now, nope, you're wrong.
Speaker B:I don't even need to know.
Speaker B:Nobody's gonna tell me.
Speaker B:I know you're wrong.
Speaker B:Right, right, right.
Speaker B:He does.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And the reason why is that that that's how successful people become wealthy.
Speaker B:As a matter of fact, this chart actually proves this theory out.
Speaker B:The more successful you become, the bigger your net worth is, the more likely you are to have business interests that are the majority of your wealth.
Speaker B:As a matter of fact, I've got some data points that we're going to plot out here and I'm just going to give everybody listening to the show to hear why a smart company would say, as long as my employee is getting their job done to a level that meets my criteria, that meets what my needs of the company are, and they're doing a good job, people like them, you fit in culturally.
Speaker B:Then I should help that person be successful and continue to build entrepreneurship on the side or where they want to.
Speaker B:Because guess what?
Speaker B:The majority of your net worth is not going to come from your salary.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:It's going to come from the investments you make over time.
Speaker B:And as you become more and more successful, the things you invest in are not just assets, they're businesses which function as an asset.
Speaker A:That's so true, man.
Speaker B:So let's get into this here.
Speaker B:Poor households are concentrated in, quote, stuff that loses value.
Speaker B:This is pretty obvious.
Speaker B:Cars, their primary residence.
Speaker B:In some economies, a little bit of cash and almost no stock.
Speaker B:No real estate, no business ownership.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker B:Which when you think about the context of what I was criticized for, that's really what the company wanted.
Speaker B:Chris, you can own stock, but we don't want you owning businesses.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Middle class wealth is mostly the house.
Speaker B:Homes equal bigger assets by far, very little diversification and and vulnerable to home price swings in debt.
Speaker B:Because we know that the younger demographic typically buys home earlier.
Speaker B:Although recently this has changed.
Speaker B:The we always tell people, hey, your home should be bought for utility, not for home price appreciation.
Speaker B:But we also know that the equity appreciation in someone's home over time tends to be the largest source of net worth for most Americans.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:This includes middle class and lower class, high net worth individuals shift into financial assets.
Speaker B:They hold more stock, they own more fixed income.
Speaker B:Assets, they hold more retirement funds, and they're less tied to their personal residence.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Multimillionaires and billionaires, they own businesses.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker B:Their house is a very, very, very small portion of their overall net worth.
Speaker B:And the businesses are almost always the largest chunk.
Speaker B:And these big blue charts that you're seeing here, that's what that is.
Speaker A:And there's no playbook.
Speaker A:It's not for.
Speaker A:For some of them, you know, they started the business first and then got their home.
Speaker A:Some of them maybe got their home first and then built it over time.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:It's.
Speaker A:It's not one way or the other, but a common theme amongst all of them is it the bulk of their net worth is tied up in the businesses that they own.
Speaker B:So the richer you get, the less your house matters, bottom line.
Speaker B:Like it or not, the fewer depreciating assets you actually own, and the more your wealth comes from ownership, not wages.
Speaker A:I think I remember there was an interview that Elon did.
Speaker A:I can't remember if it was on Rogan or somewhere else, but he was like, I want to.
Speaker A:I want to sell all.
Speaker A:I want to sell my homes that I have.
Speaker B:That's right.
Speaker A:I want to have less stuff to think about and worry about.
Speaker B:That was one of his first episodes.
Speaker B:People thought he was insane because he owned a lot of houses, Los Angeles.
Speaker B:He did, yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:And he's just like, I'd rather have less stuff to think about, to worry about.
Speaker A:And I could primarily focus on, you know, my business ventures.
Speaker B:And that's decision fatigue.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:You start thinking about his.
Speaker B:His ownership is largely derived from his ownership in stock in the companies that he has built.
Speaker A:And he got that trillion dollar package.
Speaker B:Which people criticized openly because it's.
Speaker B:It seems so egregious a number.
Speaker B:But they don't realize in order to get that money, you have to hit really hard.
Speaker B:Milestones.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:If he were to hit those milestones and receive that entire pay package, he would have the most valuable company on the planet.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:That's a pretty lofty aspirational goal, I think.
Speaker A:I think I heard him say recently, like, over the course of the next six to 12 months, there's something that they could release out to the market where you get a cure.
Speaker A:Blindness.
Speaker B:Yeah, that's the.
Speaker B:So they've drilled into somebody's brain, into the neural link piece again, another company that he owns.
Speaker B:Right, right.
Speaker B:And they've tapped into portions of the brain.
Speaker B:The problem with the human brain.
Speaker B:This is actually really interesting.
Speaker B:The human brain runs on about 5 watts of power.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:It is probably the most efficient like mental process cognitive machine that you could ever create.
Speaker B:We don't think of ourselves as machines.
Speaker B:We think of ourselves as like evolutionary biology.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:But we're working on AI, which currently right now is not as intelligent as the smartest humans.
Speaker B:Probably more intelligent than me, but neither here nor there.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:These reasoning models take a shit ton of power, like massive amounts of power.
Speaker A:The data centers that are right.
Speaker B:Meanwhile the human brain with relatively the same computing, mental computing power, depending on how intelligent you may or may not be, runs on 5 watts.
Speaker A:Wild.
Speaker B:Wild.
Speaker B:And to give you an idea of how big of a problem this is causing, I don't even know if you knew this was in here in the notes or not.
Speaker B:According to zero head hedge, one year later, the staggering energy shortfall to power the AI revolution rises from 36 gigawatts to 44 gigawatts at $60 billion per gigawatt.
Speaker B:This is a $2.5 trillion in grid funding needed excluding the $2 trillion to just build the actual data centers.
Speaker B:This is from Morgan Stanley.
Speaker B:So you got a 4.5 trillion dollar shortfall between the 2 billion 2 trillion dollar build out and the 2.5 trillion dollar usage of energy just to power the data centers.
Speaker B:These reasoning models.
Speaker B:We've talked in the past about how the next frontier is power.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:This is why Google, this is why so many of those, those companies are looking to build nuclear power plants.
Speaker B:They just can't get it.
Speaker B:This is also why people's electric bills are rising incrementally over time.
Speaker B:We're so busy talking about oh my God, institutional investors are buying up your homes and driving up your value.
Speaker B:This is what America should be talking about.
Speaker A:Yep, it's true.
Speaker A:Now to take it back maybe to some of our listeners are maybe just starting out with investing or waiting.
Speaker A:They're seeing that the stock market is at an all time high and they're like wait, okay, so I want to, I want to get started.
Speaker A:Should I start now or should I just wait for the dip and then get started if I'm going to start my dollar cost averaging?
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:Here's a problem with that.
Speaker A:So over the last 50 years, if you invested in the S&P 500 at the all time highs, your investment would have been higher a year later, 70% of the time with an average rate of return of over 9%.
Speaker A:So I know where they're saying and I'm not.
Speaker A:Nothing is guaranteed.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:But 70% of the time it hits new all time highs the next year.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And just to take it a step further, for anyone that's wondering when, when they should get invested, look, the longer you're in, it's no secret we've, we've had clips that have gone viral on the show that about compound interest site had one clip.
Speaker A:Hey, it's okay.
Speaker A:It's the one clip though.
Speaker A:It's the number one clip on my tick tock.
Speaker B:You're welcome.
Speaker A:If you invest, this is, this is actually like this put things into perspective for me and it should for a lot of listeners that are just getting started out.
Speaker A:If you invest $100 starting at the age of 20 every month with an average rate of return of 8%, that's on the low end, is it not, Chris?
Speaker A:It is 8 to 10%.
Speaker A:But at the time you're 65, that'll turn into $540,000.
Speaker A:Okay, $100 a month.
Speaker A:If instead you waited to start five years later at 25, that would just be $360,000.
Speaker A:A difference of one hundred and eighty grand.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:If you just waited five years to get started.
Speaker A:The wild part about that, the part that really the light bulb went off for me, that's an only a difference of $6,000 being invested.
Speaker B:Yeah, I think people right, like hyper focus on the value of their money.
Speaker B:And the problem for, for most of us is that that money is an unrealized gain or loss.
Speaker B:You don't realize the change in value until it's time to pull it out.
Speaker B:And for most of us, that time to pull it out is much farther along than we realize.
Speaker B:If you're not anywhere near close to 65 and sorry, the average demographic of the show is much, much younger than that.
Speaker B:Your hesitation, your reluctance to start investing in the stock market regardless of what the market is in price is naive.
Speaker B:You need to start now because guess what, every dollar you have in now will be worth more in 10, 20, 30 years whenever you're prepared to tap into it.
Speaker B:And no, you should not be investing.
Speaker B:To sell in five years, to sell in 10 years, even if that's a long term duration trade, I will make this very simple for everybody.
Speaker B:If you're listening to the show and you're not an active trader, and I don't encourage active trading by anybody, takes a lot of time, a lot of skill and frankly education.
Speaker B:Here's what you should do.
Speaker B:You should go into a baseline of low cost index funds.
Speaker B:Vanguard has some, Fidelity has some.
Speaker B:Everybody has a version of it.
Speaker B:The s and P500 index funds are typically great Voo.
Speaker B:If you like Vanguard, start investing there, then over time you can invest in some similar like emerging market funds.
Speaker B:V I O is a great example of that.
Speaker B:As a Vanguard fund, there's a couple different variants you can, you can buy into.
Speaker B:But then over time, as you start to watch the markets and pay more attention or just shop, you will see brands, companies that you like, you believe in Tesla, Amazon, Apple.
Speaker B:Buy those when you believe in them, for the long term, when you like them.
Speaker B:Sometimes they'll win, sometimes they'll lose.
Speaker B:I've had losers.
Speaker B:I bought Peloton, never sold out of it.
Speaker B:I've lost pretty healthy amount of money on it.
Speaker B:But I also bought Amazon, I also bought Apple, right?
Speaker B:Also bought Tesla.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:I think the key thing here is to not get triggered by headlines, right?
Speaker A:So if, if you're reading all time highs, all time highs on headlines, you're, you're allowing yourself to become hesitant to get started.
Speaker A:Just make it a consistent habit.
Speaker B:Well, people also have FOMO too.
Speaker B:They're like, oh, I can't buy Tesla now.
Speaker B:It's at all time high.
Speaker B:Yeah, you can.
Speaker A:Yeah, no, you absolutely can, right?
Speaker A:If, if that's what you believe in, you absolutely can.
Speaker A:But the more important thing, forget like the, the hot stock that you want to get into, the more important thing is building the habit, right?
Speaker A:And here's the thing.
Speaker A:You can make it a whole hell of a lot easier for yourself.
Speaker A:Automate it.
Speaker A:You can automate it to where it gets taken out of your account and invested in every month for the same, for the same dollar amount.
Speaker A:And if for some months, you know, you want to put in more, put in more, but at least get that baseline amount of whatever it is, right?
Speaker B:So yeah, and a lot of people, for one case, their version of this and like I'm not here to judge anybody.
Speaker B:Invest how you want to and how you feel comfortable.
Speaker B:But you should not be looking to short term.
Speaker B:Trade into more money overnight and make money actively with, with stocks.
Speaker B:If you want to invest in the stock market versus real estate, do that.
Speaker B:But just like a piece of real estate, when you buy the piece of real estate, you want to get some dividends off it like you would rent, buy, buy a stock that you found that gives you dividends.
Speaker B:There you go.
Speaker B:Just know that it takes a lot of your money tied up in stock to get a valuable amount of dividends.
Speaker B:So isn't what you think.
Speaker B:But pennies, pennies, they don't matter anymore.
Speaker B:So pennywise and pound foolish is an expression that no Longer no longer matters.
Speaker B:RIP.
Speaker B:RIP.
Speaker B:Moment of silence, everybody.
Speaker B: to: Speaker B:The penny is officially dead.
Speaker A:It costs 3 cents to make a penny.
Speaker A:3.7 cents to make a penny.
Speaker A:So no more penny for your thoughts.
Speaker A:Is now a nickel for your brain.
Speaker A:Tickle.
Speaker A:I like that.
Speaker A:That's a T shirt.
Speaker B:I. I have tried many times.
Speaker A:I like that.
Speaker B:Tickle.
Speaker B:Brains.
Speaker B:Unsuccessfully.
Speaker B:So I think I can't reach it.
Speaker B:That's not gonna be flagged.
Speaker B:That's not flagged.
Speaker B:That.
Speaker B:That's not.
Speaker A:It's true, though, right?
Speaker A:It's accurate.
Speaker B:You can't reach it.
Speaker B:That's accurate.
Speaker A:That's accurate.
Speaker A:Oh, man.
Speaker B:Brains.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:My.
Speaker A:My kids are part of the gate testing for my daughter.
Speaker A:That's coming up.
Speaker A:Is.
Speaker A:Is, you know, currency and part has.
Speaker A:There's pennies in there.
Speaker A:I'm like, what are we doing?
Speaker B:If you put currency in the form of a Minecraft?
Speaker B:Question for my son, he's got a lot.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:You put in the form of, like, what does a dollar buy you?
Speaker B:He's like, three games.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Hell no.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Not enough.
Speaker A:Yeah anymore.
Speaker B:I get 20 coins, though, right?
Speaker B:Wait, what?
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker A:So I just did that.
Speaker A:So we started this new thing.
Speaker A:So we're doing the whole lemonade stand and trying to.
Speaker A:Trying to create.
Speaker A:Incentivize the kids to try to get creative.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker B:I've got mixed emotions about the whole lemonade stand concept because nobody cares cash anymore.
Speaker A:Honestly, it's.
Speaker A:It's not even about.
Speaker A:So what I told.
Speaker A:What I told my kids is, is I don't even care about the end result.
Speaker B:You give me a little square, they can charge cards.
Speaker A:No, no.
Speaker A:I said, listen, before we even get started, I was like, I need a business plan.
Speaker A:Who's paying for all the material?
Speaker A:Who's paying for the inventory?
Speaker A:Me.
Speaker A:I'm going to need my money back.
Speaker A:So I'm.
Speaker A:This is what I'm teaching them.
Speaker A:We need to let.
Speaker A:You need.
Speaker A:You want the lemonades, right?
Speaker A:You got a picture?
Speaker A:Oh, we got to go find a picture.
Speaker A:We got to buy a picture.
Speaker A:Luckily, we have the table.
Speaker A:You could use that.
Speaker A:But I'm like, I need you to write everything out and how much you're going to need to borrow from me, right?
Speaker A:And I expect the money back.
Speaker A:No interest.
Speaker A:I'm teaching them.
Speaker A:Look, if you're going to come to me, you need me to invest, I need a plan.
Speaker A:Okay?
Speaker A:I told my son, and here's the thing.
Speaker A:I said, and this is the way I got him to do it.
Speaker A:I'm not paying for the winter basketball camp this time.
Speaker A:Dude, you're paying for it.
Speaker A:It's expensive.
Speaker A:300 bucks for a week.
Speaker A:Not even a week.
Speaker A:It's three days.
Speaker A:So I'm like, you're gonna have to pay for it.
Speaker A:And my.
Speaker A:Oh, by the way, you got 45 days to make that 300 bucks.
Speaker B:Wow.
Speaker A:So he said.
Speaker A:So he said.
Speaker A:He took a great right away, got.
Speaker A:Got home, went on Google business plan for lemonade stand.
Speaker A:He's trying to put it all together now.
Speaker A:He's not.
Speaker A:Now he's gonna need us to take him to the grocery store.
Speaker A:I'm gonna take him to the grocery store.
Speaker A:Let's write it all out, right?
Speaker A:And he.
Speaker A:He's worried, like, I don't think I'm.
Speaker A:I don't know if I'm gonna make enough.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:I'm like, okay, people can come for lemonade.
Speaker A:You can learn to bake some cookies, too, with mom.
Speaker A:And if that doesn't work, we'll put it.
Speaker A:Well, you got to find another business to.
Speaker A:To put together.
Speaker A:There's one kid at one of his teammates, does this thing where he goes around to all the neighbors, like, I'll pull out your trash cans for you every Friday.
Speaker A:And after the trash picks them up Friday night, I'll put him back for you.
Speaker B:That's kind of brilliant.
Speaker A:That's brilliant.
Speaker A:Who wants to pull out trash cans?
Speaker B:Not me.
Speaker A:Exactly.
Speaker B:So let's just run this through a little bit, because I want to see how cool of a dad you are.
Speaker A:How cool would I pay it?
Speaker A:What if he doesn't make it?
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Would you?
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:No, I'm gonna.
Speaker A:As.
Speaker A:I'll.
Speaker A:And.
Speaker A:But I'll.
Speaker A:I'll twist it with this.
Speaker A:Here's the spin.
Speaker B:Now you owe me Juice.
Speaker A:The juice is running boy.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I'm gonna teach him the hard knocks.
Speaker A:Go ask Chauncey Billis what happened.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker A:Too soon.
Speaker B:Too soon.
Speaker A:Clutch sports, baby.
Speaker B:Rip Chauncey.
Speaker A:It's over for him.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:He does an NBA career.
Speaker A:Hall of famer.
Speaker B:Not anymore.
Speaker B:Done.
Speaker B:Hall of Shamer now.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker A:Shame.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:What I'll say to him in the spin.
Speaker A:The spin will be, hey, this was not to see if you could raise the $300.
Speaker A:That wasn't the end goal.
Speaker A:The end goal here was to see could you plan everything out.
Speaker A:What steps did you take?
Speaker A:Did I see you put, you know, the right effort in to get this done right?
Speaker A:I understand you can't control the foot traffic, the car traffic, how many people you can get to stop?
Speaker A:But did I See, you actually put in.
Speaker A:That was the real goal here.
Speaker B:Playing devil's advocate.
Speaker B:Okay, I hear you.
Speaker B:And I. I probably would do the same because that's.
Speaker A:That's honestly.
Speaker A:That's honestly what I push for in.
Speaker A:In everything.
Speaker A:I don't push for grades.
Speaker A:I push for effort.
Speaker A:I see.
Speaker A:Did I see the effort that.
Speaker A:That was necessary then?
Speaker B:Is he getting the benefit of a reward without meeting the goal?
Speaker A:No, no, no, no.
Speaker A:Because the real test here is the level of effort.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker B:But let's just say hypothetically, that you do something like this again, or you.
Speaker B:You ask him to do something and.
Speaker B:But then he doesn't meet the goal.
Speaker B:Is it wrong for him to expect that you're going to get him the ultimate prize anyway?
Speaker B:Because the lesson in that case was all effort.
Speaker A:No, because the goal is this.
Speaker A:I.
Speaker A:And I have.
Speaker A:I have shut certain things down already.
Speaker A:He's wanted certain shoes, and the level of effort wasn't there.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:And we'll.
Speaker A:We'll sit down, we'll have a conversation, an honest conversation.
Speaker A:Do you feel like you tried your best?
Speaker A:And 10 out of 10 times, he'll look at me, and if he didn't, he'll say, no, I didn't.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker A:You answered it yourself.
Speaker A:And then he doesn't even get mad, doesn't throw a tantrum, doesn't get upset.
Speaker A:He understands.
Speaker A:And I said, listen, if you didn't know.
Speaker A:If you didn't know how to put together the best effort, because let me tell you, Adam, and I'm talking to him in the future, and he'll hopefully one day listen to this episode and I'll have the same conversation with my daughter is.
Speaker A:It's not working out.
Speaker A:Like, for basketball, for a game.
Speaker A:Working out for eight hours one day before the game isn't the same as working one hour for eight days straight.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:It's about repetition.
Speaker A:It's about getting the reps.
Speaker A:It's about going and doing something day in and day out, right?
Speaker A:You putting in a, like, Googling a business plan for kids and eliminates that in one day and then not doing anything else.
Speaker A:You didn't put in the effort, dude.
Speaker A:You and I both know you didn't.
Speaker B:Which is why I tell a lot of people who sign up for courses from online gurus that you can watch a course for eight hours once a day.
Speaker B:You can go take a course from somebody.
Speaker B:It doesn't mean you actually did the work.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:You still got to put in the work.
Speaker B:So I struggle with the right answer here, but let me Let me ask the question.
Speaker B:Anyway, he's nine, right?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:Are we being too harsh?
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker B:Are we?
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker B:Should a nine year old need to know that?
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker A:But should a 9 year old have to go to a basketball camp during the winter?
Speaker B:Have to, dude.
Speaker A:Right?
Speaker A:So it's like, I'm not some of.
Speaker B:The stuff these kids.
Speaker A:We're not keep.
Speaker A:I'm not keeping something from him that is.
Speaker A:Is a necessity.
Speaker B:No, no, I. I get that.
Speaker B:But at the same time, like the competition for the kids in school just to go to school, it's crazy.
Speaker B:It's crazy.
Speaker B:Gay program or not, the pressure for college is coming.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:I hate it.
Speaker A:I. I think I had a con.
Speaker A:A deep conversation before that I left to come here tonight.
Speaker A:That was probably a little too soon.
Speaker B:And that's the problem is as a.
Speaker A:Parent, because I'm eager to have these conversations, you know, I get you want to import impact.
Speaker B:I'm not perfect.
Speaker A:I'm not perfect.
Speaker A:I told him.
Speaker A:I was like, look, I get it.
Speaker A:You want to become a college basketball player one day, okay?
Speaker A:I'm not saying you could be Division 1, but Adam, if you put in the work, honestly, you could make Division three.
Speaker A:I'm.
Speaker A:If you put in the work.
Speaker B:You had that conversation with him?
Speaker B:Yeah, bro.
Speaker B:Too soon.
Speaker A:No, I know, bro.
Speaker A:It.
Speaker A:You remember what he tells me?
Speaker A:He's like, dad, I'm going to make Division 1.
Speaker A:Like, he's still coming back and he's like, like, you don't get it.
Speaker A:I'm going to make it.
Speaker B:Has he ever said, dad, I'm gonna play in the NBA?
Speaker A:Yeah, he's.
Speaker A:Not only that, he says, I'm gonna be an all star.
Speaker A:I'm like, bro, have you looked at your dad?
Speaker A:Seen the height?
Speaker A:No offense, right?
Speaker A:He doesn't understand.
Speaker A:He doesn't understand that Steph Curry is changing.
Speaker A:Oh, he's six three, bro.
Speaker A:What are you talking about?
Speaker B:Steph Curry is changing.
Speaker A:He's big boy.
Speaker A:Anyways, I had.
Speaker A:The conversation I had with him is like, look, you plan on making college basketball, right?
Speaker A:Like, yeah.
Speaker A:I'm like, hey, kids with your level of athleticism, the way they get in is not only are they good, but they got the grades to balance out the team GPA and 4.0 ain't cutting it.
Speaker A:Dude, I need 4.6.
Speaker B:Wait, what?
Speaker A:This is the conversation that I had.
Speaker B:Why?
Speaker A:This is what I had.
Speaker A:It's honest.
Speaker B:That.
Speaker A:That's so.
Speaker A:It was a little.
Speaker B:That's too much.
Speaker A:It may have been A little bit too early.
Speaker B:A little bit.
Speaker A:A little bit too early.
Speaker B:But nine.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Because he's got.
Speaker A:So he's got all A's, and He's got a 88 in social studies.
Speaker A:Socials.
Speaker A:Come on, bro.
Speaker A:You got.
Speaker A:This is easy.
Speaker A:What are we doing?
Speaker A:This is the easiest one of all the topics.
Speaker A:This is the easiest one side is nine.
Speaker A:I know, but I'm letting him know.
Speaker B:I'm like, look, the 88% is damn near an A.
Speaker A:No, no.
Speaker A:But I'm not.
Speaker A:I don't get mad at him.
Speaker A:The conversations are literally like this.
Speaker B:It felt a little punitive.
Speaker A:No, the conversations are literally like this.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:You're better than this.
Speaker A:What's going on?
Speaker A:Do better.
Speaker A:Why are you not getting an az?
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:I'm like, that's bad.
Speaker A:If you don't know why, then let's start there.
Speaker B:I would love for him to turn around.
Speaker B:Look at you, my dad would.
Speaker A:You get.
Speaker B:It's because of your parental skills.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:You could.
Speaker B:I know, right?
Speaker B:And dad, being a parent eight hours, one day isn't the same as being a parent.
Speaker A:One hour.
Speaker A:I'm a direct reflection of you, dad.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Some of this is your fault.
Speaker B:I've seen your social skills and I've listened to the podcast.
Speaker B:Dad, you're a practice apathy at best.
Speaker A:Yeah, he.
Speaker A:He has.
Speaker A:He's.
Speaker A:He has hit me with the line before.
Speaker A:Something like, well, I'm your son.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:It's true.
Speaker B:Genetics.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:You understand science.
Speaker A:There you go.
Speaker B:Maybe he's a doctor.
Speaker A:Maybe.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:Let me ask you a question, and I mean this in no disrespect to your physiology or mine.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:When I was younger, I used to get real pissed off about people telling me about my athleticism because it's not like a measurable skill.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:I mean, it can be, I guess, in certain circumstances, but do you look at it now as a parent and go, why?
Speaker B:Did anybody tell me?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:I don't know.
Speaker A:I don't know if I would have listened.
Speaker B:I don't know.
Speaker B:You seem to be able to tell your son that, though.
Speaker A:You need the right.
Speaker A:You need the right.
Speaker A:You need the right mentorship.
Speaker A:No, I'm.
Speaker A:Look, I'm.
Speaker B:You're dancing around telling your son at 9 years old that he's D3 at best.
Speaker A:No, no, no, no, no, no.
Speaker A:I didn't say.
Speaker A:I said, look, with the proper preparation.
Speaker A:No, you.
Speaker A:He can be.
Speaker A:I'm not putting him down.
Speaker A:I'm not shooting down his dreams.
Speaker A:That's not What I'm doing.
Speaker B:You're getting dream shutdown vibes.
Speaker A:No, not.
Speaker A:No, no, thank you, brother.
Speaker A:No, I think you're being supportive.
Speaker B:No, look, take that anti guru shirt off.
Speaker A:And there's.
Speaker A:And there's.
Speaker A:There's.
Speaker A:First of all, there's.
Speaker A:There's nothing.
Speaker A:Look, making any level of collegiate sports, that's impressive.
Speaker B:Right?
Speaker A:But my point.
Speaker A:My point to him is, is I'm gonna always support him, but he's got to know, like, it's.
Speaker A:You're not getting there without putting in the work, dude.
Speaker A:And it's.
Speaker B:That's.
Speaker B:That's the same rule for everything, though.
Speaker A:Yeah, exactly.
Speaker B:And then that's ubiquitous.
Speaker A:And that's the only reason.
Speaker A:And that's the.
Speaker A:Not the only reason.
Speaker A:It's.
Speaker A:The main reason why I love introducing sports early is because it's the.
Speaker A:It's the first time they can actually see the amount of work I put in translates in real time, you know, because, look, I'll be honest.
Speaker A:I haven't had to sit down with my son to teach him math.
Speaker A:He just gets it.
Speaker A:I didn't have to teach my kid how to read.
Speaker A:He just started reading, right?
Speaker A:So he feels like he's got a gift now.
Speaker A:He goes down, play sports, and he gets humbled.
Speaker A:I'm like, yeah, okay, buddy, you got humbled.
Speaker A:Now you got to put in work.
Speaker A:For the first time ever, I am him.
Speaker A:Himothy.
Speaker A:So I'm glad.
Speaker A:I feel lucky that he's.
Speaker A:That he has something that he's working towards.
Speaker B:Okay.
Speaker B:Yeah, I get it.
Speaker B:I. I, you know, Virgil and.
Speaker B:And my son are.
Speaker B:Are a couple years younger, three years younger.
Speaker B:And I don't know about you or Jill, but I struggle a great deal with.
Speaker B:I've had to discipline my son in recent weeks.
Speaker B:Actually hit him the other day, slapped him across the face.
Speaker B:I felt I didn't want to do it.
Speaker A:I've been there before.
Speaker B:And I kept like, I don't like corporal punishment.
Speaker B:I don't like physical, like, stuff.
Speaker B:But he was just.
Speaker B:He was logically outsmarting the situation.
Speaker B:And it was one of those things where I warned him for several days.
Speaker B:I gave him three warnings that day.
Speaker B:I told him he had to go to his rooms, and he's like, fine, I'll sit in my room.
Speaker B:I got toys in there.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker B:I mean, he was just.
Speaker B:He was just being intellectually smart about it.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Logical.
Speaker B:And I was.
Speaker B:So I basically told him, I said, look, son, then I'll do what my dad did.
Speaker B:I won't hit you with Belts and stuff.
Speaker B:But I'll pop you gently across the face and make sure you're alert.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:And damn near, boy, he tested me, and I did it.
Speaker B:Yep.
Speaker B:And I felt like the world's biggest a hole after.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Oh, man.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:When we.
Speaker A:When.
Speaker A:I mean, look, sometimes, look, my.
Speaker A:I've had to do it.
Speaker A:When.
Speaker B:With.
Speaker A:With.
Speaker A:With him.
Speaker A:It was.
Speaker A:We had to discipline him that way because I said, you're never going to disrespect your mom.
Speaker B:That's what he's doing is my son was disrespecting his mom.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:I was like, look, you can.
Speaker A:You could.
Speaker A:I'm not saying you can.
Speaker A:If you talk back to me, look, I'll.
Speaker A:I'll handle it my way and I'll walk away and I'll let.
Speaker A:And we'll come back and revisit this, but you're not going to disrespect your mom.
Speaker B:So that.
Speaker B:That's basically what I was dealing with.
Speaker B:And I mean it.
Speaker B:I was downstairs, like, going through the emotions, like, you know, of course.
Speaker B:And you.
Speaker B:But you can't let him see you go to the motions.
Speaker A:No.
Speaker B:Because, you know, the corrective action still needs to.
Speaker B:To happen.
Speaker B:And sometimes I wonder.
Speaker B:It's too harsh too soon.
Speaker A:I found out later.
Speaker A:I found out later with Adam that, well, for my daughters, I parent her differently.
Speaker A:I don't discipline her the same way.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:I'm good cop.
Speaker A:With her wife is back up with.
Speaker A:With her.
Speaker A:Right.
Speaker A:And it's because I'd never want her to ever feel like it's okay for, you know, a male to raise their voice at her.
Speaker B:Right.
Speaker B:I can't remember.
Speaker A:It was like, Reese Witherspoon recently was on Dax's podcast.
Speaker A:Shepherd's Podcast.
Speaker A:Shepherd's podcast.
Speaker A:Great show.
Speaker A:And my wife had shared a clip with me that she said it was something to do with, like, you know, how fathers parent their daughters and, you know, like, they're essentially going to go after somebody similar, you know, to how they treat them.
Speaker B:So I've seen it time and time again.
Speaker B:Yeah, I believe it.
Speaker A:Yeah, I believe it.
Speaker A:So it's like, I want to make sure that, you know, anytime she's talking to me, I give her my undivided attention constantly, you know, giving her the respect that she deserves.
Speaker A:And if she's.
Speaker A:I always give her lots of hugs and kisses.
Speaker A:The second she says stop, I let go.
Speaker A:I say stop.
Speaker A:You know.
Speaker B:You know what's incredible about this?
Speaker B:This is exactly the way I parent you on the show.
Speaker A:This is what you do.
Speaker B:I give you lots of hugs.
Speaker A:I say to stop.
Speaker B:You don't stop, though.
Speaker A:You don't stop, though.
Speaker B:I always stop.
Speaker A:Never stop.
Speaker B:Look, you can stop and then restart.
Speaker B:That's what.
Speaker A:That's what it was.
Speaker B:I did stop.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker B:I get my undivided attention on the show.
Speaker B:Put my phone down.
Speaker B:Face down.
Speaker B:Yours is face up.
Speaker B:So look in the show notes.
Speaker B:Yeah, show notes, baby, I'm over here in your soul.
Speaker A:No fuffing.
Speaker A:Zero.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Are we gonna call him out on lying about knowing what.
Speaker A:Stop it.
Speaker A:You already did in the.
Speaker A:More in the beginning.
Speaker B:No, not in the show, though.
Speaker A:That's.
Speaker A:That's the bleep.
Speaker A:Yeah, yeah, it was on the show.
Speaker B:I wasn't.
Speaker B:Oh, yeah.
Speaker A:Like nine minutes, I think.
Speaker A:Yeah, you time stamped it.
Speaker A:You gotta bleep that out.
Speaker A:You said the time stamp, so I did.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:I forget what we say in the show most of the time.
Speaker B:Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker A:Anyways, good episode, my guy.
Speaker A:We, by the way, somebody left us an honest five star review with no narrative, which is like, it's respectable.
Speaker B:Oh, is the app on that?
Speaker B:You spotted a couple?
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker B:So hard up.
Speaker B:We are for reviews, like, say I look.
Speaker A:No, I saw it.
Speaker A:I saw it.
Speaker A:I'm like, oh, I'm waiting for the narrative to come through.
Speaker B:Never came through.
Speaker A:Never came through.
Speaker A:So they're like, you know, this show deserves five stars.
Speaker A:I don't need a certain shout out.
Speaker A:Let me just give it what it is.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Respect.
Speaker B:Five stars.
Speaker B:Or it could be somebody who doesn't listen to the show.
Speaker B:Just want to give us five stars.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Oh, we tease something.
Speaker A:We got to.
Speaker A:If they stuck around this long.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:So Site and I were looking at a couple different channels, one of which being my old legacy personal channel, and we realized that shorter form or medium form content, call it below 20 minutes, certainly about 10 minutes or so, educational content, content that's perpetual in nature.
Speaker A:And we want to create a whole library.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:How to organize an llc.
Speaker B:How to incorporate a corporation.
Speaker B:What the difference between S Corp and.
Speaker A:A C Corp. How to get an SBA loan.
Speaker B:How to get a multi family loan.
Speaker B:What a loan processor does.
Speaker B:I mean, you name it.
Speaker B:Fico score 101.
Speaker B:Why it's not relevant anymore.
Speaker B:You know, stuff like.
Speaker B:Stuff like that.
Speaker B:That.
Speaker B:That we think will be perpetual educational content.
Speaker B:We're gonna start doing.
Speaker B:Not putting out on the podcast platform, but putting out on our YouTube channel.
Speaker B:And there'll be a definitive library of resources that are there.
Speaker B:All free.
Speaker A:It'll all be free.
Speaker A:And once we have a full list there.
Speaker A:I mean, we could reference it on the show.
Speaker A:We could, you know, plug it, and I think it's going to do really well.
Speaker B:Yeah, I think so, too.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker B:Rajeel.
Speaker A:Yes.
Speaker B:How you doing, sugar plum?
Speaker A:Oh, doing great, man.
Speaker B:Yeah.
Speaker A:Yeah.
Speaker A:Living the dream.
Speaker A:Living the dream.
Speaker A:That's Chris's line.
Speaker B:It is.
Speaker B:Living the dream or another day in paradise.
Speaker A:There's another one.
Speaker A:We're not going to get into the other one anymore.
Speaker B:I vacillate between those two.
Speaker A:No, there's.
Speaker A:There's.
Speaker A:There's a third.
Speaker B:I don't know what you're talking about.
Speaker A:I know.
Speaker A:I'll leave it alone.
Speaker B:All right.
Speaker A:Got anything else?
Speaker B:No, sir.
Speaker B:Good night, everybody.
Speaker B:Goodbye.
Speaker B:Oh, roll switch.
Speaker B:I like that.
